PYX Resources: Achieving volume and diversification milestones. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Re: 14.49 post #1: All 4 probably Stoodio.
Sirius pops in with the same assessment of NON-SPECULATIVE as me. Damn son we should should co-write a book.
Zero hostility on this board Shammy, has been very good natured and informative for a long long time. Your original post just has brilliant comedic value, that's all.
Nobody in their right mind would post your original post with even a basic (or dummy's) knowledge of metals/mining/accounts and in fact, investing, without an ulterior motive or to 'shake the apple cart', as it were.
It's generally agreed upon by investors and commentators alike, that with SLP there continues to be a NON-SPECULATIVE assessment that Sylvania Platinum (SLP) is probably one of the plays of the last decade, and continues to be so across every market pound for pound. They are GOLD standard through almost every single key investible aspect of the entire business.
So it only leads me to believe that:
A) You want in lower (why people continue to believe chat boards can move markets is beyond me :)
B) You're high AF.
C) You're just avin' a laff, as Monday's can be boring.
OR
D) For d**k.
You kinda already answered with "A" so fair play to you.
But yes, your original post was nothing short of hilariously misguided sorry fella, nuttin' personal, we all friends :)
I wish another SLP would be along in a minute, I really do!
(if you find one let me know).
If you want a speculative share, take a look at SYME. SLP is about as fundamental (and non-speculative) as fundamental gets. Retail investors using phone apps with red and green flashing lights akin to colourful casino chips may view what they do as speculative. But don`t confuse that with this. No-one is speculating here (that I know of).
The fundamentals speak for themselves.
S
Risk reward ratio is to the upside so no shorts from me. These small speculative shares seem to attract those with confirmation bias and a hostile nature, not everyone of course, some very reasoned responses here today. Will look at an entry nearer 120p area, if none appears then another share will be along in a minute, zero emotional attachment with any of my investments. Hope all goes to plan for everyone here.
Swahili garbage :) But funny to read nonetheless...
What on earth is Shanny talking about, I think he/she is trying to short (imo).
I didn't know their risk profile is different to that of a normal mining company. My research has gone as far as the accounts statement, RoC, RoE, ROCE, EPS growth etc and any risks I can foresee. Risks are a long way down the line so hopefully no spanner in the works anytime soon but the market seems to be factoring in a wide safety margin at present, just makes me cautious as, like is said here, the current valuation is ridiculous. But like Sirius says, don't overthink this, I'll probably be gone before any issues of equity raising are required, but just one RNS can change everything and spook the market, I've seen this back in the day with oil shares pre and post the 2008 financial crisis.
Sirius, indeed, indeed!
It screams "buy everything" ;)
Don`t over-think this.
The capital equipment in the washing/recovery plants has been in place for over a decade. Of course capex is required on maintenance, but that is not a risk factor If you look at the amount of Capex and then look at the amount of depreciation on PPE they are approx. the same (2020 Annual Report)
Phil Oakley (I recommend anything he authors) suggests a simple rule of thumb: take the Free Cash Flow per Share (FCFps) and ask how much of it is built into the EPS. At 80% Phil says a "definite candidate".
SLP is 100%. FCFps = 29p and EPS (ttm) is 28.7.
Based on forecast (Q4 - 30m) 20/21 $111m net profit, $5.2m capex $5.74m depreciation
If this doesn`t scream buy, not sure what does.
S
Hi Shanny80,
Many thanks for sharing your thoughts re risks. Indeed, some rather good points in there. You are aware that they process tailings and thus have a different risk profile as to a 'regular' mining company?
As far as future growth is concerned, capital projects such as commissioning of optimisation projects (plant and equipment improvements -- that might cover de-carbonisation projects in the future), as well as mineral asset development and opencast mining projects (those can take up to 5 years to come online). The CEO's review in the latest AR elaborates on these.
As far as going carbon-neutral is concerned, I am skeptical about current plans worldwide. Hydrogen production is not carbon-netural, and energy generation from all renewables by the proposed cut-off dates sounds rather optimistic. We also don't have enough platinum to convert all cars to fuel cells, and the need for faster refueling and a more robust power solution for commercial (and private) transport is still not clear, nor do we see clear plans and funding to provide infrastructure.
Although I applaud cleaner environments, SME's will tell you that 4/5th of the world's CO2 is absorbed by the oceans whose lifestock has been severely reduced since the 1970s as well as it's ecosystem damaged. These figures coincide with the sharp raise in CO2 levels on the planet.
I am not an ecologist, but the point I am trying to make here is that the path forward is anything but clear, neither is it established. It could be subject to rather unforeseen disruption.
Maybe that's what the market is telling us with this ridiculous valuation?
You realise they operate out of Africa? That continent will be the last on earth to go renewable and certainly won't be anytime near before our end of LoM
I just mean in way of any grand expansion plans or may be acquisitions, also plant and equipment is very costly. A joint venture may be needed with a bigger firm with deeper pockets for equity, global investors are moving away from heavy industry in favour of cleaner sectors. The capital squeeze started a couple of years ago, a number of specialist funds have shut up shop. Mining companies may be forced by governments to become more sustainable and run on renewable energy. Granted this is much further down the road than I said in my earlier post, it's just what I'm considering before buying. Guess I'm looking for any red flags to put me off as the company is in great shape, everything points to a strong buy at present, hence why some have topped up on the latest weakness/dip.
Hi Shanny!
You have got to be joking with that post!
This is the most embarrassingly debt-free and cash-rich business I think I've ever seen. In fact, I'd go as far as to say that what to do with all the cash they have in the bank is SLP's biggest problem. Which, as problems go, is a high class problem to have.
Shanny80, had to check it wasn't April 1st. Jeez, last 18 months such a blur I din't even know it was May. Thanks bud, that was the funniest post of the year if not the decade :)
Seriously? I suggest you go and read their annual report and subsequent Quarterlies.
Is there any possibility in the next 6 to 12 months that SLP will need a placing to generate funds? I see they have cash and have less shares in issue due to buybacks, which I like, but these types of business are expensive to run.
Yes agree TBTT, Luna and the Stud(io) :) et al
I`m trying to ignore Rh ATHs and work through their 17-year historical av. basket prices to align with annuals earnings to get a ratio to input as the start of a (worst case/" margin of safety") DCF valuation which ignores the real and ATH prices.
What is required then are growth assumptions (which is anybody's guess). The fading out of PGMs in ICEs over time may be offset by expansion in/explosion of fuel cells. (I will post a link to an interesting article on that.)
For now, I will use low medium and high growth assumptions and then discount back at what for me is not a greedy rate of return - 12% to 15% with a terminal value assuming a blend of the risk free rate and GDP (again, conservative).
I have a feeling it will land at the 200p mark which is bonkers if that is the case but will see.
On a side note it is fascinating to read back over the reports and see how they started and where they are now, their evolution if you will. It is also a useful way to asses, risk.
S
Tiger, completely agree with you. If Rhodium falls (not anytime soon in my 3-5 yr view) then you also have to watch what happens to Platinum :)
Win win.
Hi Stoodio!
I actually looked into buying some rhodium metal rounds when the price hit $3,500, because I was convinced it would go to $10,000. But the 50% bid/ask spread put me off. A dumb play that.
Then, to compound the error, I looked into buying iridium rounds when that was at $1,500. But again the huge spread put me off.
All in all, it would be worth back-engineering both the current SLP and the Tharisa share prices, to see at what rhodium price they would trading at "fair value". Both share prices massively undervalue the companies with rhodium trading at $28,000/oz or so. I'd guess that the market (inasmuch as it isn't simply asleep) is pricing in a long term rhodium price of - maybe - $4,000 / oz.
And I think time will show that assumption to be hopelessly pessimistic.
This is what Ben Davis published (sp was 140p)
"The current share price implies the rhodium price falling to $4,000/oz from over $20,000 currently."
Apologies for not remembering correctly....
This will be one for the ages. Let's see if he's still lurking:
AbuDhabiTrader.... are you still alive ma man? It's been a loooooong time brother. Hope you're well, and frankly, stayed the course here?
Luna, Just as an FYI, myself, and other investors of SLP from back in the day were DRIBBLING over our cornflakes when Rhodium hit $5000/$6000 levels for SLP bottom line revenues :)
Food for thought. Very very very important food for thought that :)
Oh this terrible forum software where ads interfere with the typing on mobile devices....
I meant to point out that research from Liberum is not independent research, since it's their broker.
This doesn't discount what they release, it's worth to be aware though.
Most research isn't independent anyways....
The analyst from Liberum (it'levelstindependent analysis fyi), mentioned that the current price still assumes rhodium and $5000 levels.
TBH, at £2 this in would still be at a substantial discount to fair value (by that I mean at least 50%).
Slater and Graham would have had a field day with this one....