We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
would a 30% rise within the past month be classified as 'explosive'
_________
Do you make or lose money if a share loses 40% of its value and then gains 30%? I'm not sure I'd describer that performance as 'explosive' - unless we're talking in terms of limpet mines and torpedoes.
or just learn movements and trade better eggscotch, you know you have a good one when its stress free and plenty in profit
No, not explosive stoodio
getting to £2 would be explosive :-)
or are you talking about your VPN again ?
Plenty of upside to come, you should be be seeing profit before too long. I bought in at 85 and 95p, so its looking good for me. This has been my least stressful share.
I like the look of the charts now. The pullback was barely noticeable. Price momentum is building. Another +$20 million in the bank come December. I want to see how the price moves this week to confirm if we are to base at this higher level or if this current swing has more upside. Either way, the price elevator is moving upwards. Only a matter of time. Also, still another 9 days till ex dividend. That should add more momentum in the next week and a half.
Question for all: would a 30% rise within the past month be classified as 'explosive'?
Asking for a friend...
Ah no, it's fine. I was just being light hearted. I'm quite new to the boards but held different shares for years. I'm used to the bumps. Thanks for you concern though, Chat
I'd respectfully suggest that holding a share shouldn't be stressful. Perhaps reduce your exposure to SLP / increase your diversification if you're finding potential losses to be stress inducing?
Phew!! That was a stressful few weeks for my account, ha ha
First quarter result was end of October last year. Hopefully next week we find out the important details on basket prices and a February dividend which could boost the SP further.
It’s almost as though, I understand SLP ;)
Hi ic152,
Given your previous problems regarding exposure to SLP and consequent negative equity, it might be worth thinking about reducing your exposure. It could be a shame, if you didn't take advantage of the current prices and ended up following the price back down again (if that's what happens).
There she is, hey baby :)
Let's go baby, up over £1.10 this week. Boomtime :)
The Matthey PGM market report is the best place I've seen for insight into the underlying drivers of PGM supply/demand and thus deficit/surplus. The latest report is from May so somewhat pre-dates the chip bun fight (chip butty fight?) but is still worth a close read.
NOx targets will apparently continue to be tightened in the EU which can only drive demand.
Current SLP pricing looks very modest on current metrics (of course, we all know this, it's obvious) and also if one believes (1) ICE cars (including plug-in hybrids) are here for much longer than Torquil and Jocasta at the BBC would have us believe, (2) the global car market will continue to grow as middle classes in developing countries (India, China, Vietnam,, etc) move from two old wheels (or no wheels at all) to four new ones, (3) nations continue to tighten NOx emissions criteria.
Runaway inflation caused by the profligacy of central bank nutters could blow-up the whole thing but we might have more to worry about than SLP if that comes to pass.
SLP remains my biggest position and, of course, it remains a major punt on the PGM basket price.
In the company's recent report, I suspect that ever-sensible and cautious Stuart Murray will have said to Jaco "stick some wildly-varying price forecasts in the presentation". Mgmt is keen to remind us that we are at the mercy of the basket price and they are totally right to do so.
"So even as the palladium price has dropped almost $1,000 per ounce, shareholders and investors should see this as opportunity to invest rather than a problem. And the simple reason for the price decrease is that auto manufacturers have had to cut back production because they cannot get enough chips to build the number of cars they would like to. And most palladium goes into cars. As a result, they bought less palladium and the price sank".
Hi CheddarBob,
Was looking further at Rhodium prices (JM site) back-history today (as there’s been a couple of price “crashes” over the years in Rhodium).
Others might offer a view on the future forecast prices of Rh, but it’s worth keeping in mind, how swift the record increases have been for comparison purposes.
SLP commenced recovery from a submarine-like dive in its SP from when it launched as an IPO on the stock market back in 2011 (as did Rh) and didn’t commence recovery of a crashed SP until the 2016 era.
And then performed spectacularly from that day, to this year’s summer without seemingly pausing for breath.
Rhodium too, was in footstep all the way, as SLP’s SP rose through the years. Both have exponentially rocketed in the last year or two.
In particular as you ask about the future of Rhodium, the rise in its price was equally dramatic.
By Jan 2016 Rh was down to just $625 per ounce.
The following year by Aug 2017 it had risen to 1,000
By Jan 2020 it had charged up to 6,000
Barely a year and a quarter later March 2020, it had exploded up to 13,800
From there it flew to an ATH in May this year to just under 30,000 !!!
So, I’m not confident of offering a counterview to any observers of Rhodium. And looking at that low of 625 back in 2016, it shows how volatile a situation, things can be with Rhodium.
If one “anchors” to the ATH of 29,800 back in May, might that be a dangerous assumption to do so?
This from a PGM commodities broker:
Rhodium prices traded below $15,000 per troy ounce, after rebounding from a 13-month low of $11,250 hit on September 16th, as traders took a breather following months of decay in the metal’s price. Still, rhodium prices have slumped 51% since it touched an all-time high of $29,800 in late March, on concerns from the automotive industry, which constitutes roughly 90% of its demand. Global carmakers have either slowed production levels or temporarily shut down plants due to intense supply bottlenecks, namely a worldwide shortage of semiconductor chips. Heraeus Precious Metals, one of the world’s largest platinum group metal refiners, expects these chip shortages to potentially last until 2Q 2022.
hey cheddar. I'm a newbie at SLP and PGM prices. But i have done some research and it seems that H2 2022 onwards that PGM is set to increase over the next 5 years. Especially once the microchip supply is back established.
Now, i dont know specifically for Rh within the PGM, but I invested based on rising PGM prices after H2 2022 and the great dividend and low PE.
But, if microchip supply re-established and sales of new cars goes up again post-COVID tehn Rh should increase?
Hello all, I've been a spectator here for a few months and have very much enjoyed the quality of posting and (sometimes) differing views on the company/industry.
It's also been a useful place to come for a pep talk when the share price looks a little grim! (thanks stoodio, Luna)
I finally got a chance to watch the annual results presentation at the weekend and was just wondering what you all made of the Rh price forecasts included in there (at approx 30 mins)? They seem to vary wildly (esp SBG) but the one thing they do have in common is a declining price over the next few years.
Obviously a forecast is a forecast and I wont be pinning any hopes or fears on specific numbers (2 of the 3 seem to be implying that current prices are the top), but it was more the overall theme - seems to be at odds with a number of the bullish posters on here.
Do you think this is simply more evidence of the pessimism driven by assumed EV adoption in the future, that many on here have claimed to be unrealistic?
Any thoughts appreciated, thanks.
You can tell ‘em I said it :)
(Again ;)
Price is looking strong. I'm reminded of my ski trip, and on the journey to the summit on a coach winding up the mountain, the views were stunning! Enjoy the ride:)
A bit of profit taking from the 5-10 percent profit day traders. Werent many, so looks like the next leg up could be starting early. I think the "handle" will come probbaly around the 120p level, before we go on the offensive to the 150p level. Break on that, and the summit is wide open for the taking.
Haha come on baby into the blue sweetcheeks :)
Thanks for the Rh update – yes, at 14,200 that’s now just a measly $100 below the prior (absolutely puny) prior Rh high of 14,300 on the 7/8th Oct.
Bear in mind, not a single prior high has been surpassed by Rh since May, not one!
– the very definition of a bear market. And still to be proven by Rh.
So it bears repeating, of all the failed breakout attempts by SLP’s SP this is the very first time since May, when this retrace commenced, that the SP has succeeded in breaching its first prior high of circa early September.
Clearly, the SP is now inching slowly ahead of Rh events, suggesting to me the market is re-evaluating its stance on the SP as the market gains a more nuanced expectation for the future of Rh & the chip crisis.
Rh, first has to “prove” it’s following likewise, by rising higher than that puny Oct7/8th high of 14,300 and march on the genuine previous swing high of late Sept which was at 14,500
It’s quite a thing to say the SP is moving ahead of Rh recovery since it collapsed from the ATH in May, but that’s exactly the case currently!
Short term to intermediate trends are still bullish. All is still "on".
However, after so many blue days of gains, it's entirely within the realms of a bullishly trending stock to have occasional day/days of red bearish days.
I was expecting the SP might throw a wobbly today. In fact as much as I agree with the bullish trends, I will be surprised if today closes in the blue. It would feel 'natural' and yet still remain in a bullish uptrend, if it did close in the red.
On the little gizmo's calcs I play with now and then, It "could" be a further delay in progress tomorrow if (Aye-up personal opinion coming) the SP closes at anything below 108.
A couple of days in red would be a good thing IMO, before a serious assault on the mighty 200 day average trend sitting at 111 is attempted, which incredibly after this summer, is still rising!
As It's a little over 111 now, I would need to see a minimum of 112 (pronto like) and building on that, before calling it in.
So I'm currently bullish, but remain wearing a bearish scowl until the 200 gets itself owned by the SP.
No 200 buried underfoot, and the SP goes nowhere.
- Sunny uplands and all that once the SP looks in its rearview mirror and says its goodbyes to the 200
Your opinion may differ :)
Rho up smidge again today.
£1.10+ end of week.
Shake out done. Orders clearly filled. Back up we go. Textbook.
Blue finish?