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looks good for a trade here, last time we visited those levels was nearly a year ago
Bought few more yesterday to bring my average down to 39 from 43....still think it�s highly undervalued. GLA
Yes, I got shot of my GKN shares just under a year ago and look what happened to them today !! I dont intend to let this happen to my SHP holding !
I would forward that on to Ornskov himself and the IR dept.
Had to buy back in again on valuation grounds, they just look so cheap, especially as new tax laws encourage a takeover.
Agree with this. I conviction invested in SHP some 20 months ago beliving it was worth good money and initially I seemed to be proved right, but now I cant see why the market hates this seemingly decent share so much. Has one of the BOD run over someones dog or something ?
13 January 2017, closing price 4661p 12 January 2018 price 3625p Congratulations to Shire Management for destroying shareholder value during a time of record share indices.
Thoroughly underwhelming update, I can’t see this information being a catalyst for shares, basically a profit warning and a “we still don’t know what do do with our Neuroscience franchise” I’m OUT
Chief executive said in todays statement thats 'hes even more positive ' , based on what though ? ... AVOID imo .
Thats what I see also. Being a sales director I always say that if you cant tell a customer a price for something they start to get worried/angry about the lack of transparency. This is what Shire do to the market and as you rightly say it annoys the Professional Traders..
That was 52 pounds.
Overreaction, very good time to buy. This is about the profit warning. When they split the business the price will go back up. Hopefully a takeover will happen up to �50 �52.
Expect that Shire's messaging is appalling once more. They are not open about targets and missing targets and try to dress it up as something that it isn't and the markets hate that and see right through it. Hence they punish the SP heavily. Shire continue to shoot themselves in the foot and don't seem to learn from it.
Revenue forecast in 2020 cut from $20Bn to $18Bn Seems like yet another over-reaction by the market though.
Yes, I think you are right. Possibly profits warning, possibly less reduction in debt, difficult to tell. I suspect the market knows more than we do, hence the drop. Not looking good and I'm considering bailing out.
What just happened to its price? Its in freefall. Is there a profit warning in that conference update?
Very bad PR, so ambiguous, but I’ll forgive them if they get this blinking share price up into the mid 40’s again.
I bet they've moved a chemist from Research to IR as punishment posting. Presumably for blowing up the lab. :-)
I expected nothing less from those dim-witted chemists
This is the response from Shire. Dear Mr XX, I apologize if you think that our communication about the timing of sharing the update was not clear. We have been very consistent in our messaging to clarify that by year end could be literally by year end (which is now passed), by early Jan or at full year results and this is still our official message. Clear as mud. What a BS response.
excellent - good day on wall street today and Europe should take its lead tomorrow. I've bought here today at 38.5 ish, it does seem quite range bound and I'm hoping to cash at 42+ over the next two months.
M&A Markets Blog: January 2 2018 There is no detail at the moment on the list, just the names. Some are new contenders, others like ITV, are as old as the hills. However, there will be weekly updates on the M&A Markets blog here at Zakmir.com, with colour and latest developments. If anyone has any further information on the names above, feel free to get in contact. The geographical breakdown is below: UK Capital & Counties (CAPC) – Property Development ITV (ITV) Media Shire (SHP) – Pharma Vectura (VEC) – Pharma https://zakmir.com/
Lastly, I assume 5% growth for the Legacy Baxalta, driven by a double-digit growth of the Immunoglobulins business, which will more than compensate a weak outlook for the haemophilia franchise, which will be impacted by the competition on Hemlibra in the inhibitor segment. To translate my top-line expectations into earnings estimate, I assumed 39.5% of core operating margin (up 250 bps YoY thanks to the synergies from the integration of Baxalta) and a 16% tax rate, so I estimated a non-GAAP EPS per ADS of $16.20, which is 1% above consensus. In few words, I believe that 2018 Street expectations are reasonable for Shire. At 9.8x 2018 EPS, shares trade at the low end of the diversified biopharma group, despite a highly attractive portfolio of assets. If the company will re-rate to its historical average P/E valuation of 15x P/E, there is more than 50% of upside from the current level. Shire could benefit from an underappreciated pipeline with at least five assets with >$500 mln peak sales in Phase II/III. In particular, there will be four key pipeline catalysts over the next 24 months: In Q2 2018, Shire will report Phase III results for SHP640, its drug for conjunctivitis. In Q2 2019, Shire will report Phase III results for SHP620, its drug for CMV in transplant patients. In late 2019, Shire will report Phase III results for SHP647, its MAdCAM-1 MAb for Ulcerative Colitis. In late 2019, Shire will report Phase III results for SHP621, its oral budesonide for eosinophilic esophagitis (EoE). The market is assigning limited value to these products, so any positive news could be the catalyst for a re-rating of Shire. During 2018, Shire will use the strong free cash flow generation to pay down debt, targeting around 2x net debt/EBITDA by the end of 2018. This will allow the company to pursue further bolt-on acquisitions in 2019 to strengthen the pipeline. Shire has recently appointed few new key members of the management team, which could help to restore the confidence of investors. In details, Shire announced the appointments of a new CFO, Thomas Dittrich, a new Head of R&D, Andreas Busch, and a new Head of IR, Christoph Brackmann. In summary, with solid management execution and some wild cards in the pipeline, I believe Shire is poised to outperform over the next 12 months.
Summary 2017 hasn't been a stellar year for Shire. But I think 2018 will be a good year for the company. Current valuation is really attractive because it doesn't reflect the leading position of Shire in the Rare Disease franchise. 2017 hasn't been a stellar year for Shire (NASDAQ:SHPG) with the stock trading at its lowest valuation in five years and underperforming the SXDP Index by more than 2,000 bps. Investors have lost faith in the management's abilities to transform Shire into a biotech specialized in "Orphan Diseases," as a result of a massive negative earnings revision seen in 2017. In detail, 2018 consensus EPS has been lowered by 10% from around $5.95 to around $5.34 during the last 12 months, mainly as a consequence of the unfavorable federal court decision on the patent protection for Lialda and the excellent clinical results showed by Hemlibra in haemophilia. Despite that, I like the company's long-term strategy and its business model, and I think Shire is strongly poised to outperform from the current valuation of 9.8x 2018 P/E for a couple of reasons: Estimates for 2018 seem reasonable, looking for 4% sales growth and 7% EPS growth and recognizing the pressure that Shire will face on a few growth drivers. To explain my view, I started with consensus revenue for 2017 and then applied reasonable sales growth assumptions to take into account the dynamics of Shire's major franchises over the next 12 months. Source: Author's valuation model Applying 6% sales growth to Shire’s Neuroscience division, -10% growth to Internal Medicine Unit, 0% growth to Genetic Disease franchise and 5% growth to Legacy Baxalta, I estimated $15.6B of sales for SHPG in 2018, approximately in line with consensus. The main assumptions behind these estimates are: In Shire’s Internal Medicine, the company will suffer from the competition of Zydus and Teva on Lialda. I assume that Lialda sales will decrease 60% YoY, which equates to around $ 300M of sales lost in 2018. I assume strong growth for the Neuroscience business (i.e., 6%) as a result of a healthy volume dynamics and a stable pricing environment for Vyvanse and Mydayis. Shire's management also will announce in 2018 their decision about a potential spinoff or sale of the Neuroscience franchise and it could be a positive catalyst for the stock. I am also assuming around $500M of sales for Xiidra, with Shire still suffering from the lack of coverage in the Part D segment of the dry eye market. I also believe that Xiidra could be negatively impacted by a potential generics competition on Restasis, which could put pressure on the pricing in this space. In the Genetic Disease division, the company will suffer from the competition of Haegarda on Cinryze and Firazyr, which will compensate the strong performance of the rare disease brands as Replagal, Vpriv and Elaprase. Lastly, I assume 5% growth for the Legacy Baxalta, driven by a double-digit growth of the Immunog