Rainbow Rare Earths Phalaborwa project shaping up to be one of the lowest cost producers globally. Watch the video here.
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Not really a question of belief Joe, it's just a subjective price target.
Latest tip in the IC Out tomorrow...but available on-line NOW. Link for subscribers only for complete article :- https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/tips-ideas/2017/11/28/why-shire-is-now-too-cheap/ IC View Investors are right to be wary about Shire�s balance sheet. But management has an excellent track record of integrating acquisitions and there are clear signs of improvement. That means serious re-rating potential, especially if Shire can provide a bit of good news. As well as the potential for a well-received neuroscience spin-out, there are nine major pipeline or operational updates due in the next year. Buy Last IC View: Buy, 3,726p, 1 Nov 2017 ATB m8
Societe Generale from GBX 7,500 ($99.99) to GBX 8,000 ($106.65) in a research report issued on Wednesday. Like to believe it, but massively unrealistic at this juncture.
Er........let me think.......NO! A piece of utter fanciful fiction.
GS conviction buy ratings of 6000p price target?
It would have four drugs in its pipeline for ADHD and depression and have a 2018 revenue of about $3 billion with potential for growth. Pittman writes, �Both Shire and Supernus certainly have other options. Shire could sell the Neuroscience unit to Allergan or any other company with sufficient cash. Supernus could choose to use their cash to purchase a company like Neos Therapeutics and by doing so it would have stimulants to market with their other medications. Either company could also buy KemPharm to improve their stimulant pipeline. Interestingly, both Neos and KemPharm have significant personnel connections to Shire as well. However, both Neos and KemPharm make stimulants that would compete with Vyvanse and Mydayis, whereas Supernus has focused on non-stimulant ADHD medications that could complement stimulants.� Of course, it�s possible Shire will decide to keep its neuroscience unit. Or maybe it�s eyeing some small companies as bolt-on additions that would boost its neuroscience pipeline. Chances are everyone will know in the next few weeks.
At its second-quarter financial results in August, Shire indicated that it was reviewing options concerning its neuroscience franchise, including the possibility of an independent public listing. It reiterated this in its third-quarter results, suggesting it would have more information by the end of the year. Kenneth Pittman, writing for Seeking Alpha, takes a look at why Shire is thinking of unloading its neuroscience division and suggesting an alternative. Analysts and investors didn�t seem very enthused about the idea. Shares have dropped since August from around $170 per share to around $137 per share. Max Nisen of Bloomberg Gadfly thought the �idea was shaky.� Nisen�s argument was that Shire Neuroscience has a valuation of around $11 billion, but it doesn�t have much of a pipeline. Most of its value is hinged on Vyvanse, which brings in $2 billion per year, but its patent expires in 2023. The company�s newest drug in the area is Mydayis, which delays the patent issue until 2029, but Shire�s projections for the drug are $500 million per year, although consensus estimates are lower, at $300 million per year. Adderall XR, Adderall and Intuniv would be part of any Shire Neuroscience spinoff or sale, but all face generic competition. Pittman writes, �Adderall XR still contributed $363 million to revenue in 2016 (despite being generic), but Mydayis will likely reduce this number at least somewhat (as Mydayis is basically Adderall XXR). Mydayis may also reduce Vyvanse revenue somewhat as well. Therefore, I would estimate that Shire Neuroscience would have around $2.5 to $3 billion per year revenue through 2023, with revenue dropping to somewhere between $0.5 to $1 billion per year after that through 2029.� In 2006, Shire spun off Shire Laboratories, renamed as Supernus Pharmaceuticals. In 2012, Supernus launched its own initial public offering. The company currently has two products on the market, both in neurology, is profitable, and has a market cap of around $2 billion. It has three drugs in its pipeline for attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) or depression. It is also looking to expand the indications for one of its seizure medications to Bipolar Disorder. Pittman notes that Shire is in a position to consider a spinoff partly because it acquired Baxalta when Baxter spun it off. This boosted Shire�s position in rare diseases, minimizing the impact of the Neuroscience unit. As such, he speculates, what if Shire Neuroscience merged with Supernus? Most of the industry speculation on the issue is on whether Allergan would buy Shire Neuroscience. Allergan has the money and is noted for gobbling up smaller companies left and right. But Pittman points out that if Shire Neuroscience merged with Supernus, the merged companies would have five marketed products for ADHD, binge eating disorder, seizures, migraine prevention, and potentially bipolar disorder. It
Andy, I think you are right in that most concerns re Bax and Roche competition are baked into the current SP, albeit I would not be surprised to see a write-down in the carrying value of the Bax acquisition as I suspect that SHP will struggle to justify the price paid. If I was their auditor I would be looking very closely at that. It is a non-cash adjustment but would hit eps and would indicate that SHP paid too much. But you raise another point about FCF. And that one worries me given the level of debt. Obviously if the FCF can be maintained at current levels then you are spot on by saying that the SP should be better judged against future FCF. Let's see if the 2017 earnings targets are met, there is no write-down of investments, FCF generation continues at current levels and forecasts for 2018 -2020 show modest growth. I don't think all of these are going to happen but I can hope and pray!
Over the short term I would agree the Bax acquisiton has weighed very heavily on the SP, it's difficult to view it otherwise!. Longer term the jury is still out, however you could view the savage price fall since acquisition as allowing for corcens over the price paid - admittedly a rudimentary take.
Tom, I'm not sure online forums are often the best guide!. It comes down to future FCF imv. If Shire keep generating around current levels of free cash flow the SP looks value longer term, just IMV. Appreciate with your holding, you may have read far more widely on Shire than many who post here.
The more forums I read the more I come to the conclusion that the Bax acquisition is the driving force behind the SP collapse. It appears that SHP paid way over the odds for the business, much of which is now has huge competition from Roche. Also the $20bn by 2020 appears to have been dropped by the company indicating that the future net growth just is not there. Perhaps the SP is not undervalued but fairly valued and the SP of the last few years was over valued. Just my thoughts on another red day fro SHP.
Not entirely unexpected, unfortunately for me while I was long. Tiny position but in red. I�ve not done averaging down for a while but will give it a go soonish. There might be more sp bushing to come on cna since no divi till May, unless 2nd profit warning ( 3rd expected soon after) and force roomers of TO. TO would be best hope in that case. Unfortunately most of TNAV is already stripped away so it would attract only boys with patience, ones with vision , Chinese or Russians . I think uk gov will make it unappetising for them hence get ready for more pain beyond May. O
You were long on Centrica I believe. Views after another big crash today?!
As they say buy on the rumour sell on the news, well this is reverse for shorters I would guess, they were shorting but now the Roche news is out, the worst appears known, therefore time to buy. Let’s face it this was hammered down so hard, and there is no way that Shire is disappearing from the haematology market, although sure to take a hit, it’s a rapidly growing market and they virtually discounted the whole franchise is what analysts have said. I expect this to start recovering over coming weeks and months. Dyor
Roche also up today so rise not Roche related I would guess.
That’s a lot of shares, maybe someone trying to build a stake in anticipation of bid, would be nice
something is up
Glad to see good increases in price so far today. Hopefully this share has finally turned a corner!
I have the feeling News is out somewhere, sudden jump and larger spread. I think no the bad stuff is out the brakes are finally off
https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2017-11-20/roche-hemlibra-tecentriq-data-good-news-short-shelf-life Roche's Two Good-News Scoops May Have a Short Shelf Life
In December last year J P Morgan in their predictions for 2017 they recommended 23 shares that we must buy and 16 we must sell. Shire was one of the shares we must buy. It is nearly a year later so how did the shares we must buy perform. Surprise Surprise they underperformed having gone up a measly 6,2% against the FTSE 8.1% Now lets see how the stocks that J P Morgan said you must sell performed they overperformed went up a hefty 9.5% against the FTSE's 8.1%.
Ah crap. Cfo news has now been gobbled up by the roche issue. We r back at over 3% drop and counting. If only shire had left the cfo news to tomorrow.
This roche news was expected in Feb 2018 actually but some sneaky people got wind of it a lot earlier and have been suppressing the SP here.
Yes in theory the bad news should now be out of the way with the spin off deal expected before the end of next month.