Proposed Directors of Tirupati Graphite explain why they have requisitioned an GM. Watch the video here.
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As a long-term holder, who first bought 10 or more years ago, it’s clear that a great deal of the 100 bag potential it had then, has probably gone for now.
It’s funny how investors can get carried away with certain shares. I can remember first buying when all they had was Fleet. No mention of Auto, and Fleet alone was going to make this share 100 bag, and I bought in to that story.
Crazy now when you look at where Fleet is now, and goes to show how easy it is to be seduced by story stocks, and just how hard it is to predict these things. We should all be millionaires just on Fleet revenue alone, but it hasn’t turned out like that.
However. the recent Auto KPI’s alongside management confidence, and predictions on taking $6 cost out of the company, has provided a level of certainty, that hasn’t previously existed.
Break-even during FY 2025 seems a very likely scenario now, and if Auto does double as predicted, I expect FY 2025 to show a small profit, possibly $10m.
FY 2026 should see a profit of $38m, and would suggest a minimum share price of 7.5p, based on market cap = 10 * profit. However, that just values the company on earnings, as if it has no growth potential, so price should be north of that.
2027 and 2028 should see $91m and $205m profit respectively, suggesting share prices of 21p and 49p, based on earnings alone.
The above includes nothing for Aviation other than what is already known and Fleet continuing to grow at the same pace, as if G2 continues and G3 Aftermarket provides little benefit.
Given the level of certainty, that appears to now exist, now seems to be as good a time to buy, as there ever has been. Little chance of losing money, and good chance of a 10 bagger in 3 to 4 years.
Whereas 10 years ago with a 100 bag possibility, there was every chance of losing all your money.
Lots could still go wrong, but apart from a black swan type event, even if they have over promised again, a 5 bagger should still be extremely likely from here.
To endorse yours & Baxter news positivity,which is most welcome by All, Cold Fish Pie bought 1.5m shares earlier today at 5.23p ?
All this positivity is making me wonder whether I should sell ?
I welcome yours & Baxters pragmatic views of SEE over recent years & appreciate that you are both holders.However, if CFP admits to buying 1.5million shares earlier today @ 5.23p I may have dispose of my holding, having never previously sold a single share in over 11 years since my first buy of 10k shares.
Brock
Sensible write up there.
Whats allowed for in Fleet in that equation? I can see Gen3 doubling in Calender year 25 if not more? With legislation who knows the size of fleet in both aftermarket and factory fitted. Until we see the next 3 TPIs cant see where fleet going.
Even if only stayed the same with only current 5% qtr on qtr growth that would be over 110,000 units connected by 2028.
Even at $30 month with hardware sales every month theres probably a $40-$50m business there.
Should be alot more clearer by Jan 2025....
I doubt CFP would buy his Mrs Flowers on Valentines so buying 1.5m shares would mean the Worlds gone mad.
Wheres he hiding anyway? Prob a Man Utd fan aswell :)
Terry,
Fleet revenue tends to increase just over $2m a year. So I've assumed increases of $3m a year for the next 4 years.
That includes the Cat licence revenue as they bundle it all together in results.
However given Gen 3 and aftermarket that should be very conservative.
But Fleet has been pretty predictable recently with about 10,000 added per year, and Gen3 and aftermarket is a complete unknown.
It might take off, or might be poor, as box tickers just go for the cheaper and poorer alternatives.
Brock
The market will always have its cheap, basic suppliers and maybe 50-90% Will use it but iam sure that loophole will get smaller with legislation and protocols being introduced.
Geotab has a rich 23-year history, and achieved a 3 million subscription milestone in 2022. In just over one year, the company added 1 million subscriptions in 2023, reflecting the growing demand for data intelligence to support fleet modernization and management.
Shows how big the market is.
10k PA could go to 20,30,40,50 or even 100k + PA
Euro NCAP - For Safer Cars, Vans & Trucks new #TruckSafe testing protocols will be released on Wednesday May 15. With great timing, Seeing Machines has announced its next-generation aftermarket Guardian Gen. 3 has started production. Seen in the picture, this product integrates the IR optical path, vision processor, and #4G modem all into a 1-box solution. That is an extraordinary feat of engineering, which balances the conflicts of small size (to not impede driver's view) with enough space to dissipate the heat of the active components. Intriguingly, Seeing Machines has used Ambarella Inc’s CV25 #AI #SoC for the processor. Ambarella is not often thought of as a supplier of #automotive processors, but has clearly won here over more established suppliers such TI, Renesas and NXP.
Colins post
Initial deliveries for Gen. 3 will be to meet "after manufacture" supply for European truck makers. This is where the truck is made as it rolls down the assembly line, with specialist hardware added at the end of production but before leaving the factory. Firstly this will be to comply with #GSR guidelines for drowsy driving, but later comes detection for distraction. Evidently there are also new protocols about to be introduced by Euro NCAP which European trucks will need to comply with. We will know more next week, but it follows that a slew of contracts will follow from truck makers once the tests are published and requirements are known.
Seeing Machines has offered Guardian for almost a decade, typically to detect #distracted and #drowsy driving and provide real-time alerts. What looks new in Gen. 3 is the ability for Seeing Machines to update the #algorithms over the air #OTA via the 4G modem. This way the product can be upgraded with through-life updates, as new features are developed or as new requirements come into force (for GSR or Euro NCAP). This business model of continuous updates would serve to future-proof the initial outlay of the cost of the hardware by the fleet operator, and appears more flexible than embedding the #driver #monitoring #system into the truck, such as in the instrument cluster or on the steering column as seen in the automotive sector.
As part of its new Truck Safe rating scheme, Euro NCAP has stated it wants all truck manufacturers to fit #AEB systems that can not only detect crossing pedestrians but also cyclists and even eScooter riders. So what is new is that Euro NCAP has increased its focus on #safety systems installed in trucks. We will know next week exactly what they are looking for in terms of monitoring distraction, drowsiness, and perhaps even #impaired driving. Safety agencies and regulators around the world should keep watch.
For institutional investors, family offices, and others seeking an expert third-party source to understand trends in the #DMS, #CMS and #OMS market, I can be booked for telephone-based consultancy via GLG, Guidepoint, and Third Bridge Group Limited. Just ask for me by name.