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Why don’t they buy a DMS Co instead? https://www.motorauthority.com/news/1122155_toyota-softbank-buy-1b-stake-in-ubers-self-driving-car-unit
Em, we are only 3p mcap of 70m, pretty unloved. Although all the pointers are towards dms being around for years I get the feeling its obsolete technology in the making, all the investment is in autonomous tech. The softbanks of the world are getting in early with a view to getting a massive payday. Look at Apple, amazon and sky but to name a few.
We will make money but dms has a shelf life and going forward convenience dms will be all that’s needed in the robotaxi city centre world we are headed for. I believe vehicles wont be allowed into cities to reduce the pollution and parking issues and in fact why would you need one if a robo taxi is available which in terms of owning a lump of depreciation that sits loosing money 85% of its life costs nothing. Supercruise type of level 3 will be available for a long time for everyone else, but cities are where the real money is. Thats what I think.
Last Week Ford said...
Ford CEO Jim Hackett scaled back hopes about the company's plans for self-driving cars this week, admitting that the first vehicles will have limits. "We overestimated the arrival of autonomous vehicles," said Hackett, who once headed the company's autonomous vehicle division, at a Detroit Economic Club event on Tuesday. While Ford still plans on launching its self-driving car fleet in 2021, Hackett added that "its applications will be narrow, what we call geo-fenced, because the problem is so complex."
https://www.engadget.com/2019/04/10/ford-ceo-says-the-company-overestimated-self-driving-cars/
What Uber say last week
Self-driving cars dominating the roads could be a long way off according to Uber tech-scientist.
https://www.taxi-point.co.uk/single-post/2019/04/11/Selfdriving-cars-dominating-the-roads-could-be-a-long-way-off-according-to-Uber-techscientist
Forbes say
Fear of missing out (FOMO) is the only rational reason for why Toyota and Denso would pour $667m into such an awful asset. Furthermore, the only hope for this billion not to disappear into a black hole is for Uber to buy one of its plentiful and substantially superior, self-driving rivals.
What computer people say
Autonomous vehicle tech is too costly and unreliable for production
Level 5, fully autonomous vehicles are a decade away. By then, the tech will be so expensive, that it will only be available on high-end vehicles
Cliff Saran
Managing Editor
17 Apr 2019 18:00
A study by analyst Forrester for chipmaker Arm, looking at the development of autonomous vehicles (AV), has reported that engineers believe the cost of the technology needed to support autonomous vehicles is too high.
https://www.computerweekly.com/news/252461838/Autonomous-vehicle-tech-is-too-costly-and-unreliable-for-production
While fully self-driving cars have been in various stages of development for some time, the expectation of when they will be market-ready is quite a bit down the road.
Of those involved in the autonomous vehicle industry, most expect it will take 10 to 20 years before such vehicles are market-ready, and no one sees them coming in the next couple of years, according to a new study.
The majority (76%) expect it will take at least 10 years for true Level 5 cars to be market-ready, according to the TU-Automotive study of 300 executives involved with autonomous vehicles, including automakers, hardware providers, software developers and other critical auto mobility stakeholders.
https://www.mediapost.com/publications/article/333413/76-see-full-self-driving-cars-at-least-10-years-a.html
Phil
And then after that, people want to drive a car.
https://carbuzz.com/news/americans-still-prefer-to-do-the-driving-themselves
It will still be in planes, trains and trucks
AV has a long way to go, the lack of real time testing is a big drawback. The current testing does not bode well - https://mobile.twitter.com/meharris/status/1118924708030738433
Of course, SEE does have over 2 billion kilometres of data that might be of use!
shall
and about 50 million cars made a year lol
I'm not sure it will ever be technically achievable for me to be driven in fully autonomous mode, all the way from my own home in the NW of England, to say the Glasgow area should I wish to visit family members. I just can't see it any time on the horizon nor can I envision it in my own lifetime if i'm honest.
As for a ride hailing service in a city locality. Who'd fancy it? Not me. I used to travel to work regularly on trains and got fed up of the state of them. If it was in say South Korea, no probs. Where I live, no way. The seats would sometimes be full of litter and the interior would perhaps stink of fags and booze.
Waymo CEO John Krafcik explains why a parking lot is one of the most difficult environments for a self-driving car https://www.businessinsider.com/waymo-ceo-john-krafcik-explains-big-challenge-for-self-driving-cars-2019-4
1/3/19 Adrien Gaidon, Machine Learning Engineer, Toyota Research .
"We have our first project for long term autonomy which is Chauffer which is level 4 autonomy every where all the time. That's a long ways away". @3m30s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jBIYRoAQJuo
Well its just SoftBank are investing 1bn into something thats not going to work? I dont think so, look at the evolution of mobile phones, its years off but if you take humans out 5he equation it will work a lot better and I recon thats whats gonna happen, connected vehicles which know who are in the vehicle and will charge for fag ends and beer cans being left behind, there is no comeback for vandals and litterbugs because nobody does pulls them up for it, if they were gonna get charged for it they wouldnt do it. I know we like to drive now, but eventually we will get chauffeured cos we are basically a lazy race and we could be looking at our phones instead. Yeah years away, but technology moves crazy fast. Why are our shares not being snapped up?
Phil, take some time away from this board.
The fact we are still loss making and AIM listed must deter larger investors. Hopefully large auto contract wins over the next 12 months, better cash generation via a growing fleet business and hopefully sufficient cash on the B/S can start to alter some perceptions. I'd expect that there will also be a growing awareness of DMS as we approach Euro NCAP 2022.
On anther matter. I think there are a few good companies on AIM amongst the dross, yet I've sometimes wonder why I have bothered investing on this exchange. SEE is often fairly illiquid, yet there are other companies on this exchange - some of them potentially pretty good - where you only have a couple of trades going through on a daily basis and sometimes none. I find it quite staggering to be honest and sometimes question the wisdom of getting involved in it.
Softbank are covering every eventuality, a lot of AV investment will end up as zero, if one believes AV is less than 10 or 15 years, why invest in SEE?
It will be interesting to see next week who has declarable stakes in us ,although I doubt whether SoftBank ,Waymo or Intel will appear on our Register I hope for some solid long term supporters
Chris, nobody can disagree with what you said. We are currently loss making and the auto revenues won't come in probably until 2020/21. Fleet was messed up but appears back on line and if we hit 27k installs by June 2020 will bring in a chunk of change. Aviation and rail are growing, who knows where that could take us. Now my opinion for what it is worth points to a successful fund raise. Why people focus on PI fund raise and forget about the IIs that have bought baffles me. SEYE broker Vicktor when he said that FCA had gone down the drain (or words to that effect) said that SEYE had lost FCA to the only known other competitor in the current round of RFQs. So its either us or them. Some OEMs will go cheap, some wont, both companies will win. Ive increased my holding by about 50% at these levels. Do i sleep ok at night, yes, why? Cause it isn't 2020/21 yet. I get concerned for some on this BB. I know some at deep under water, but nobody is happy with the way things have gone even what some have described as Uber investors. Its just that some dont moan all the time. Some do which is in their nature O suppose but it wont help them or anyone else. If i found this too stressful i would sell up and take a break from AIM. Its brutal, but there are some nuggets there and IMO this is one.
I agree Leon & I too have increased ,although not by 50% as I already had a large holding ( by my standards) & my average cost is sound 4p .There is a fair chance we will reach 6/7p again in the short term ,depending on newsflow,& I will have to then decide whether or not to take some profits to reduce my average .
Phil I wouldn’t worry what’s coming with autonomy in 5,10 or 15yrs. After we sign up most of the majors in the next 12 months and position nicely as world leader I doubt we will not be bought out by 2021. Bonus is it’s the only way we will make proper money aswell. I’ve got a big holding and Iam still confident in what’s coming. Only bad side was buying so many from 6-13p for me so my average is prob a bit high. Topping up at these levels in my SIPP though is slowly bringing my averages down.
Terry lewbo et al
Dont get me wrong im not worried about my investment here or autonomy, I just see that as the solution that they big boys are aiming for, there is a lot of noise about pollution in big cities, climate change and grid lock. Connected autonomous cars would solve a lot of that. Its IMHO, I will be outta here and hopefully retired with the money I make here. Too many things happening here for it to fail.
When investing the only facts an investor has is exactly that or in the event of close to that, information pointing to facts. I think as far as anything other than Auto, the facts point to Guardian being fixed and every other segment performing in line so especially about Fleet this is good news. Now, as regards Auto, SEE is according to SEE, involved with 4 RFQ's in the first half of 2019 with up to another 8 in the second half. Where ever you look, there's no evidence that SEEs so called competition is actually no competition. It is SEEs safety DMS against some other concern who no one has yet to identify. That is why I'm confident as regards the current RFQ's whenever they arrive. Until there is proof that SEYE has fixed its problems (which are more than just about 40mph) I will continue to consider for SEE its an open goal!