The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Morning agree Ruck,
The Genmab deal is a case in point and illustrates the thinking of several posters. They make the instant leap from where we are now to a £600m+ incremental valuation to SCLP conveniently missing out the considerable risk,7-10 year timeline and future dilution.
Why do they think Genmab only paid about 1% of that figure direct to SCLP and the rest milestones as if it was such a dead cert why would SCLP not held out for a much bigger slice of the pie.
As you said we may get there but please let us have a balanced debate about probabilities of success and appropriate valuations not pie in the sky speculation based on what May happen not by those dreamers who reside on fantasy island.
WTP,
"Isnt the genmab deal worth £600m+ alone assuming all goes well? "
True, but that potential revenue will be over the next five years or so. So whilst an mcap of £4B is possible, it's not guaranteed, it won't be next week and the amount of dilution required is unknown.
We all have different personal circumstances and investment goals. If I had the choice of a guaranteed 50p next week versus a chance of £2.40 in 5 years, I'd go for the 50p. That's not because I don't think £2.40 is achievable but simply because my personal circumstances mean the money would be more use earlier rather than later. Plus the fact I've already held for 12 years!
Unfortunately the important investment considerations of risk, time and funding seem to be glossed over on these boards.
Oh, my apologies, I missed 'Glee Club' as well. Comedy gold blasts from the past.
'Astute.'
Wonderful.
Dragon,
Where do I say anywhere about the SP bit not doubling or tripling.RR talks about 50p which is a five fold increase and if it all comes good it could easily get beyond that even to £1.
What I am countenancing against are the valuations in the multi billions which some on here have been espousing for over 10 years.
You can see the likes of RW response to anyone that does not agree with at least a 10,20 or 50 fold increase from current levels he simply resorts to type of anyone who does not share his vision by one line caustic utterances.
What is amusing is he actually believes there is some sort of “ boiler room” conspiracy to deliberately keep the SP here low.
He could not be further from the truth as there is no need do anything so count up how many posts the likes of me have made on here the last 6 months hardly any and like any SH I want the SP to rise the only difference being I along with others take a much more balanced view and are not in such a desperate situation as likes of Ratty and the other over exposed glee club who ignored the astute advice they have been constantly given
Yes...the double/triple WWE tag team as ever.
Predictably tiresome to see who pops up with what and when. Also faintly amusing, to be honest, but definitely predictable and tiresome. AB124 will probably be along in a bit too.
Ivy, I completely disagree. The SP can double easily on a positive RNS. Scancell has always told us, when the time is right, the PR will kick it in. Punters are waiting on the sidelines to pile in.
Nice balanced post RR and a reminder of reality here and in fairness I do think a lot more LTH have readjusted their expectations to a more realistic level here.
Some of the more ambitious valuation targets as you say make a complete leap between undoubted great potential and blockbuster Approved drugs totally ignoring the risks,the timeline and the additional costs in getting there all of which are going to seriously impact on the journey here.
It is hard to try and out a valuation on the current assets in terms of what someone may pay but I will make a few observations.
I doubt one party will make a specific bid for the whole of SCLP given the diverse range and stage of assets so the value is not the sum of all the parts.
Is really hard to guess but imo the outcome here will be determined by RM and Vulpes and in particular the CLN conversion next year.Redmile will have an exit strategy which may or may not be aligned to that of SH but they are unlikely to await the full potential of each and every asset.
Those that say the likes of SCLP cannot go private are simply guessing as none of us know but if they intend to progress the drug development of iSCIB 1 they may decide that is best served by going private and the BoD will be persuadable if required.
I am confident that we will each see a nice return from these levels but be prepared for a wait at least 12-18 months but AIM liquidity is horrendous at the moment and you need to attract new investors to make the SP move in a significant and sustained manner.This will not be achieved by a few LTP topping up here as many if very happy with their level of holdings and we need positive and regular newsflow.
SCLP have never been one for providing regular updates and often the news whilst very positive is often accompanied by further improvements to the Science which Althoigh welcome in improving outcomes has to be balanced against the extended timelines it invariably leads to.
I very much doubt a bid at 50p would succeed if the SCIB1 / iSCIB1+ results are as we hope they will be by the end of this year. Maybe £1 would succeed if Vulpes and Redmile are willing to accept but I think that would be a big IF. A $1.5bn market (or much larger for iSCIB1+) could easily deliver $1bn annual profit given how relatively easy it is to manufacture the vaccine...
RR - I've probably got my maths wrong, but are you saying you think an early bid (for the whole lot?) would only be worth 50p per share i.e. MCAP of £500m approx.? Isnt the genmab deal worth £600m+ alone assuming all goes well?
Just seems super conservative no?
"So the TD analysis with their conservative valuations give me some comfort that my holding is really worth 30p/share right now and who knows, could make a couple of quid in the next 8 years. There's also the chance of an early bid. So possibly 50p in a shorted time frame?"
RE your last paragraph, if I felt that way about one of my investments I'd be thinking my capital would be "much" better invested elsewhere, no?
Morning TF, Moonparty
Hope you are well?
Interesting discussion. Do you know the original source of Inan's post? It doesn't seem to be from a Trinity Delta report.
Just a bit of a reality check.....
The Mcap of Scancell today is £89M (929M shares @ 9.6p)
If we look at the TD latest forecast from the January update they value SCLP at £304m (33p/share, 25.7p/share once Redmile have redeemed their loan notes)
If you take the TD formula and replace there percentages of success with 100% across all platforms you get an Mcap of £4.8B - so yes, your $6B is not that far off!
But to do that misses the point - you have to factor in risk. No one is going to give you odds of 10:1 on a one horse race are they. And even betting on a horse in a one horse race is not entirely without risk - it could pull up or fall.
I know there are lunatics around who still spout the "no risk" mantra but that is just not true of this or any investment.
The other fallacy comes when you try to convery Mcap to share price. Given the amount of time and resources required to get all the platforms manufactured, tested, approved, and marketed who can say how many new shares will need to be issued? Of course, that will depend on the issue price and how much this can be offset by sales or licence revenue.
So while a £4.8B mcap may look like £4.05 per share with 1.185M in issue, it is probable that this won't be the case. If another billion share needed to be issued, the price per share would "only" be £2.40.
So the TD analysis with their conservative valuations give me some comfort that my holding is really worth 30p/share right now and who knows, could make a couple of quid in the next 8 years. There's also the chance of an early bid. So possibly 50p in a shorted time frame?
ATB. AIMHO
I trust our door in the Oxford offices will be a little easier to locate than RG's potting shed all those years ago !!!!
Not too hard I hope, or they’ll bend the cardboard 😂
Instead of Scancell needing to knock on big Pharmas' doors they will be knocking on Scancell's.....Let's hope so miavoce!!!
I think the purpose is to move us from a position where there is limited awareness of Scancell's work and early results to a position where there is high awareness of Scancell's work and early results with major Pharma's keenly awaiting further results. Instead of Scancell needing to knock on big Pharmas' doors they will be knocking on Scancell's.
🔬🧬 Unleashing the Power of Immuno-Oncology! Join us for the 'Advanced Immunotherapies Panel: Cell Therapies & Cancer Vaccines' at the #Sachs_OIF on May 31st, 2024, at the Waldorf Astoria Chicago Hotel. Explore the cutting-edge of cell therapies and cancer vaccines that are setting new paradigms in cancer treatment.
Co-Chaired by:
Kaveri Pohlman, Director, Biotechnology Equity Research, BTIG, LLC
Michael Rice, Expert Advisor, SVP, Cell & Gene Therapy, Lumanity
Panellists:
Deborah Rathjen, Managing Director & CEO, Carina Biotech Limited
Niranjan Sardesai, Founder, President & CEO, Geneos Therapeutics, Inc.
Polly Brown, VP Head of Business Development, Oncology R&D, AstraZeneca
Sath Nirmalananthan, CFO, Scancell
Upendra Marathi, CEO, 7 Hills Pharma Inc
(Yet another conference/presentation...what gives?)
Enjoyed that Moonparty and yes your maths are wrong, (as you know).
But all good fun - and we finish for the weekend in blue !
It's the weekend - Andrew Bridgen was making some dramatic comment in Parliament yesterday re. mRNA vaccines. Worth a watch ? https://youtu.be/z4oSLajsHrY
We can but hope....
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1028311/price-earnings-in-the-health-and-pharmaceuticals-sector-in-europe/
"Thanks Inan for a nice reminder. Just asking the question, just for fun, if success should be 100%, does that mean a potential MCap of $6 billion?"
I know the question wasn't addressed to me, but I'm answering anyway!
No, it means a market cap way in excess of $6 billion, maybe 5 - 10x (depending on how much of that $6B gets to the bottom line). So potentially $30 - $60 Billion.
I think that's more than £8 a share though - maybe my maths is wrong :)
Six weeks from dosing to surgery was the plan.
I noticed this a few days ago on PoG - Inan 7839. I'm guessing It's Trinity Delta's previous attempt to put a value BACK THEN on Scancell at SP 30p on a measly 10% chance of success !
""Why is everyone stressed ?
Scancell Holdings PLC - Addressable Market Opportunity. As stated earlier, the overall cancer immuno-therapy market was estimated at $86bn in annual revenues in CY2021 – forecast to increase to $272bn by CY2030 – a 13.6% CAGR – substantially ahead of the 8.2% CAGR for the overall oncology market.
From a financial perspective, one of the factors with the greatest appeal is the wide number of solid cancers the company could potentially address across its 4 platforms – over 10 – ranging from head and neck cancer, to triple negative breast cancer, colorectal cancer, renal cancer, ovarian cancer, malignant melanoma, non-small cell lung cancer, prostate cancer, bladder cancer, pancreatic cancer, small cell lung cancer, et al.
If one considers the incidence rate of these various indications across just 7 key markets – the United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Switzerland, Australia and Japan – and after appropriately adjusting for expression rate, diagnosis rate, compliance rate, the addressable patient population is between 550,000 – 600,000 patients (across these 7 markets.
Translating this into a revenue opportunity depends on the mode of treatment elected – for instance chemotherapy and radiation is much cheaper than using check point inhibitors and antibody drug conjugates. Our revenue estimates have been built up by indication with estimates for the United States, versus other markets. To illustrate an example, we estimate the revenue opportunity for Modi-1 alone would be around $9bn in annual revenue (across the 4 indications of head and neck cancer, triple negative breast cancer, renal cancer and ovarian cancer).
Depending on the market share assumed – every 10-percentage point market share equates to $900m in annual revenue – just on the Modi 1 platform alone. As stated in the investment summary, we think there is potential (if all ducks line up) for the peak annual revenue opportunity (across platforms / indications) to be around US$12 bn.
From an opportunity perspective, the biggest value drivers are Modi – 1 and Modi – 2, given that they target so many indications, followed by the mAbs (SC129, SC134, SC88 and SC27). Both Modi – 1 and Modi – 2 could potentially deliver $3bn in peak annual revenues, if all goes well. Adjusted with even a 10% chance of success, this implies around $600m – more than 3x the current market capitalization of the company""
Why indeed ? But I'm guessing stress would be reduced somewhat if SP was actually 30 pence.
Thanks Inan for a nice reminder. Just asking the question, just for fun, if success should be 100%, does that mean a potential MCap of $6 billion?
I'm dreaming on. Back in my box now. GLA
Over there, courtesy of Marcus . . one of 3 Companies on a One2One Forum, 29th May, 6pm at the Chesterfield Mayfair Hotel, (in Mayfair).
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/register/event_details/444?
hTTps://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/register/event_details/444?viewSource=TwitterUK
This release is part of the softening up process to get us to 30p guys. Why? Cause stiflel is theirs.
So when’s it coming?
Johnny - thanks for that, appreciated