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Hi belgrano
I'm not saying they would go from 25k straight to 500k, my point is they have the capacity without expansion. I would be more than happy with 5k subscriber uplift each month.
Hi Toyin,
Think we've both on the same wave length here. I also believe subs will come in much faster than that in trying to satisfy the huge demand from the States. Expect the majority of "pre registered" people are UK based, but the main upswell of orders once things really start to shift will be from the States.
Hi belgrano
Yes, we agree. I think you are correct re the subs,as well, but I am trying remain calm and cautious!
Belgrano, isn't Winclove's customer Skinbiotherapeutics so as long as Skin guarantee an order the problem becomes skins if the demand is not there?
Hi AquaeS,
Yes SBTX is a customer of Winclove, think I've got the answer now as doing multiple runs of smaller batches to satisfy production quotas initially. Actual first order size yet to be confirmed. 2 year shelf life will really help.
Can't seem to be able to buy currently. can still sell loads.
now getting quotes again and its gone blue.
Here’s a thought a little off topic but quite interesting I think.
Opti always used to talk about a Nasdaq listing once they gained a sufficient foothold in the US market.
Given that Sbtx may develop a large US market for AxisBiotix, and almost certainly for the Sederma cosmetics ingredient, doesn’t this put Sbtx is a prime position to consider a listing on Nasdaq themselves.
If anyone is going to the presentations and thinks this is an interesting scenario to discuss maybe a question could be put to SA. Any thoughts?
Nice to see the product axisbiotix advertised on Facebook
Hi Train tracks,
Very good question. Believe the original idea was for OPTI to gain more investor exposure and hence grow the share price. However lack of "hockey stick" growth, and realisation of the costs involved may have put this on the back burner, along with the fact that the parent company is still in the red many years after investors expected them to be flying. So US investors may view the stock dimly and not worth the effort hence no action there. However lets fast forward with SBTX now getting lots of usa subscriptions, it may be worth the effort.
However my own viewpoint is that we wont need more investor exposure once product subscription starts in a short time, as MR.Market is pretty savvy and once say the first 10K subs are in and rising fast many shrewd investment experts will be searching hard for stock, so we wont need more investor support...they will come anyway, it will sell itself.
Toyin,
I took the figure from elrico's own podcast with Stuart, but it appears from elric's post below that I have misinterpreted what was said at the link so best you listen to it yourself.
"Elric's podcast with Stuart (second Skinbiotix interview down (5th from the top) at 25 minutes in, the 25000 definitely referred to the soft launch figure and was a supply constrained target.
https://soundcloud.com/user-957798193-127487236
Belgrano, agreed, I don’t think we’ll need additional investor interest if all goes well but it would still be great to get out of Aim. I think we’d all benefit from fewer unusual movements in the share price, hence greater certainty with the value of our investments and greater market liquidity also.
AquaeSulis
SA did mention this in another interview which I listened to again today. I just have something in my head that this was SA using 25k as an example and not the actual figure that would be used. But I do hope I am wrong and it is 25k, that would make me very happy.
Toyin, further in in the interview, Stuart mentions the 8M USA Psoriasis members and figures based on feedback from that society. Personally, I believe a number of investors have bought into a company with zero revenue and a £89.36M market cap on the basis of those sort of launch figures and would be disappointed if there was a significant difference announced. As you say, those numbers have been aired in different interviews not only with elric but also Tom Winnifrith so I hope they have some basis in fact.
Also, worth reading the blog at the link that was posted by elric on the SBTX lse BB in Dec20 following the podcast re the 20000-30000 numbers
https://lemminginvestors.blogspot.com/2020/12/skinbiotherapeutics-ceo-stuart-ashman.html
Believe you can be happy Toyin, if its small batches being produced Winclove can keep on churning it out, batch after batch.
The linch pin for me is Stuart's close contacts with the US national psoriasis association who are going to ...
1. Endorse our product .
2. Offer it at a very slight discount to their members.
3. Offer to advertise freely the product to their 6M members.
4. Already calling SBTX "partner".
In return they have.
1. Got Stuart to prioritise the treatment development for their suffering membership.
2. Also may have had a say in the price point, which is well below most treatments on the market.
These are the missing pieces in the development puzzle, which will cause this stock to fly...So get them golden tickets while you still can... and if anyone wants a friendly wager for a tenner to charity...I'll stake product is available nearer to the start of the fourth quarter than the end, because some contingency was built into the plan...
AquaeSulis01,
Nobody is disputing the 25k subscription number. My concern is the target become a forecast without Stuart saying this is the case. The nearest he has come to confirm this to me is, "I am not in the habit of setting targets and missing them."
Are we not in danger of focusing on Axis and missing the opportunity with Croda/Sederma? We have touched on the logistics of supply and demand for Axis, and yet completely ignore the considerable opportunity for the production of the lysate for the cosmetics VIPs. Remember, Croda has invested c£5 million on a dedicated production line that will run exclusively to produce the lysate. This is very significant, especially when you consider the type of household global partners SBTX will be providing their IP for. They will be selling millions of units PA worth double-digit royalties and no cash outlay from SBTX. They sit back and count the cash.
Hi elric,
Thank you for taking the time to comment and appreciate the 20000 - 30000 figure mentioned is a ballpark conservative initial rollout range based on ensuring the supply chain is robust enough to satisfy subscribers whose number I suspect will be far in excess of this figure should the psoriasis societies act in their "partner role" to promote this. Regarding no-one disputing this range, I think if you read back through Belgrano's and Toyin's posts you will find there was some debate whether this level of supply could initially be achieved.
Have not lost sight of the Sederma/Croda launch and its importance, especially as the title of this thread is "Beauty Parade" and seems to have been hijacked to discuss axis, however, the immediate initial measurable income will start to roll in from Axis, whilst the even bigger rewards will follow from skinbiotix.
I hope so belgrano, I just dont want investors to get ahead of themselves, me included. I would be equally happy if for example, we launched at 5k adding 5k every month. I just believe there is too much fixation on the 25k at launch. There is more than one way to skin a cat!
It seems that sederma /Croda tie up was a natural joining of both parties with similar interests. An ideal partnership as they clearly strive to maintain a leading technology advantage in the latest breakthrough developments as can be clearly seen with their website. https://www.crodapersonalcare.com/en-gb/our-brands/sederma/about-sederma
Also their products do command a premium price as well...these aint a fiver each.???
I’m not doubting elric’s insights for a moment, but if we do receive double digit royalties on potentially millions of units sold for anything between £20 to £50 a pot, if not at an even higher selling price for the really premium brands, the revenues could be off the scale.
Do we definitely know the royalties are double digit? Where has SA confirmed this please? It would make my day!
Hi TT,
Some of the top creams I've been looking at that they sell are well into 3 figs, certainly not 20 to 50 a pot, but expect they do those "cheaper" ones as well. Makes those kind of royalties much more possible.
Also I've seen similar questions asking "where SA has confirmed it" before, and have a think about it, and for other products as well. Only a fool of a CEO would officially declare that say "we make a tenner a pot", because you would furnish future partners doing deals with you some wonderful negotiating information. However in my limited experience such things are often mulled over without ever being specific at shareholder meetings etc. Just my opinion of course.
Train, yes SA has confirmed double digit with Elric and TW. What that double digit is we dont know, but as you put it, yes it could be off the scale.
Oh dear, I must be in another league, the base figure I was working on 10p as double-digit.
If the retail is £100 for a premium product I'd work on £70 going to the retailer, at least, £25 would go to the manufacturer leaving £5 for royalties...where does my 10p come in to play I hear you ask well I wasn't working on £100 a pop and I go on the bottom of the double figure even If I thought it could be 99p until any figure is announced.
We all have our own ways.
Think another factor is actually looking at their sales volume.
Not talking 5-6 trades a day from the company shop here.??
Sederna is the flagship of Croda, these sales results might be a little old but anyone care to deduct even a small percentage, even go with 10p. They do have a full range and many are much more affordable around £30.
file:///C:/Users/Alan/Downloads/2017%20Full%20Year%20Results%20(1).pdf