The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
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Did SA actually give a deadline or period for the so called "Beaty Parade" Where the top 12 companies would have first refusal on the skin.product.
I know he doesn't ( so far) break his deadlines. I thought it was meant to.be late Summer?
Be nice to hear something about this now, seems to have taken second place to the psoriasis treatments. Also a sederna update on where we are currently.
I agree with you Belgrano. I’ve read posters to this BB express an opinion that we might be in a period of no news for a while and I hoped that was not the case. We are surely due an update on other aspects of the business whilst we await the commercial launch of Axisbiotix.
clio/Belgrano , the August Update informed Investors that
"Commercialisation on track for Q4 2021
The Company has been preparing for the commercial launch of AxisBiotix-Ps™ since the completion of the study and has made excellent progress. To date, the team has been finalising the regulatory pathway and commercial strategy, preparing the marketing campaigns and establishing a reliable and robust supply chain.
The AxisBiotix-Ps™ product is regulatory compliant in the US, the UK and Europe.
The commercial strategy is to target the US and UK markets initially, with the EU following very shortly after. Excluding shipping and any duty costs, the product will be marketed on a subscription basis and priced per sachet in the US at $2.00 (USD), in the UK £1.50 (GBP), and in Europe €1.80 (EUR) and sold in boxes containing 28 sachets.
To create a ready-made market for the product at launch, the Company is conducting a multi-media marketing strategy to encourage further pre-registration of interest from potential customers. Upon launch, the product will then be released on a controlled basis to both test the supply chain and ensure continuity of supply for subscribers."
"Croda and its active ingredient arm Sederma, continue to progress the development of SkinBiotix® as the foundation for an active skincare ingredient. The project is progressing through the increasing levels of manufacturing scale-up which is now at 600 litres and will then move to 20 cubic metres (final step for the worldwide market) in September 2021 and in line with the agreed project plan."
If there has been any change to this situation we would have been informed so what else are you expecting by way of info pre-launch?
Many thanks AqueS, knew that post was in the public domain.
I'm looking for some more meat on the bone and as an investor in this company believe we deserve a little more, than very broad fourth quarter dates. Indeed some psoriasis sufferers are taking their current medication and wish to more accurately plan switch over of medications to the new product.
Winclove clearly have a planned (has it already started ) product production run ...how much quantity are they planning to produce, ?????? because I believe product is going to be well over subscribed. Expect we could be told a lot more accurate information, if they wanted to share it even if provisional.
Also more information on our "beauty parade", is expected.
As shareholders investors we do have a right to be accurately informed, because quite frankly another company which we all know and love , had a factual history (in my viewpoint only), of high expectation then poor performance for years. The share price there, is still seeing the negative effects of that lack of performance. (And many investors here have lost a lot of money currently there).
Not saying it will, but I'm not prepared to go the same way here, and accept wooly "fourth quarter" expectations. Nor should other investors either. Maybe I'm being over cautious as I've great respect for Stuart and he's NEVER let us down, however when you and your friends hold actual percentages of this company I believe we do have that right, as I expect other holding institutions do, to have more information and more detailed progress.
Belgrano, we have been previously informed by Stuart that the initial axis supply will be set to meet circa 25,000 customers before being gradually ramped up, actual figures and the exact launch date are likely to be announced to coincide with the pre-launch marketing and not before I suspect. With the current raw materials and supply chain issues accentuated by the lorry driver shortage (something that has seen H&Bs supply of Strawberry meal replacement containing Optis slimbiome out of stock for 3 weeks now), it would be folly to promise anything too far in advance of the actual launch.
Regarding the Beauty Parade, that is not in Stuart's gift to announce, it will be down to Sederma to authorise once they are ready to do so
Hi Aqua,
We know the axis objective is 25K customers, however when listening to Stuart it did seem to me (and I often get confused Doh), that they intend to slowly launch up to the initial 25K. that's actually completely different and I hope you are right.
However it does require clarification, hence the rationale to my initial queries.
Do you hope to go to any of the investor presentations arranged by elrico, I cant make the portsmouth one, but just seeing if I can change things around and drive up to the manchester one, or even fly up from southampton. That would be an ideal opportunity to really pin some of these questions down.
Hi Belgrano - I sense some dampening of your enthusiasm over the past few days. I always read your comments with interest since I feel they are balanced and backed with solid information. I know from your comments that you are heavily invested so there is definite risk for you. I just wonder what if anything in particular has got you ‘questioning’ Stuart and the business of late? I am not unduly concerned because I’m fairly sure my level of investment is far below yours but I also have been invested in ‘that other business’ for some time now and am similarly eager to ensure that the promise of sbtx doesn’t fizzle out and leave me locked in with the never ending promise of jam tomorrow.
Final comment - is there a ‘red flag’ in the seemingly continuous block selling of round amounts of five, ten and fifteen thousand shares.
I’d like to say more but trying to type on this site is painful!
Good luck and wish you well!
Belgrano, if you listen to Elric's podcast with Stuart (second Skinbiotix interview down (5th from the top) at 25 minutes in, the 25000 definitely referred to the soft launch figure and was a supply constrained target.
https://soundcloud.com/user-957798193-127487236
Not currently down to attend the Investor presentations, but the Portsmouth one would be the one I would look to attend fo attend from Bath
Hi all - Great to know that investor sessions have been scheduled, I'd love to attend. When are they scheduled? I wondered, have been coordinated via Elric? Are they only open to Lemming subscribers? Thanks, Nick.
Nick,
There are ltd places available so elric is offering subscribers first refusal, however, he will no doubt publish an invite on the BB should there be any vacancies. Proposed dates are :
Manchester (finally) to be held on on 14 Oct and TBC with Mike McGeever for November 2,3 or 4th in Gosport, Portsmouth?
Interesting! Thanks for explaining
Hi R55DRG,
So far I cannot see any hold ups or restrictions with the progress of SBTX currently.
I do get a little peeved by the traders trying to sell down the stock, similar to what they used to do with OPTI, before income started. I don't know who it is but doubt its our institutional backers, but certainly someone with deep pockets, and probably someone who was invite to participate in the previous capital raise.
Also believe this has caused depression of OPTI prices as gives option to take some profits on SBTX whilst offloading any losses on OPTI to balance the books and limit GCT. Sometimes holding stock at a loss can be useful in reducing tax exposure.
Still very convinced this product is going to fly, as my straw poll amongst some I knew as having "pre registered"suggested that they all still intend to purchase.
Just would be nice to have an idea just when that might be as we are in to the 4th quarter in just 10 days.
However I've learnt the hard way over years of investing to ask questions when it goes quiet for a bit. Also its good to push for more accurate information, because I think every investor here can see the difference between getting a few hundred subscribers and slaughtering a 25k initial target. Mr. Market certainly will for sure, as the former will lead to stagnation and the latter a real stock boom based on hard sales.
Belgrano - thanks, it’s pretty clear we need some news, indications appear to be it will be good but just difficult at the moment seeing the share price drift lower. Keep the faith!
I have spoken to Stuart recently, and I can assure you everything is on track. He remarked he keeps expecting something to go wrong, but it has not.
I think even peeps like me are in for a surprise.
Thanks Elric, I hope so too! I think it's great news that Stuart is planning to attend the upcoming presentations, it all helps with confidence during a period when there is no requirement to release a formal business update.
Can we say whatever the numbers are of the UK launch,say 10,000
Can we expect 6-7 times more for the US launch 60-70,000
Relevant to market size
Farris, the initial launch will initially be supply constrained (between 20000-30000) and from the Business update RNS we have been told UK and USA will be launched at the same time, but yes it is fair to say that demand numbers from the different countries will reflect the percentage of the overall psoriasis sufferers for each nation and as USA has the larger population of sufferers and members in their respective psoriasis associations, it is fair to assume USA demand will be larger.
From RNS "The commercial strategy is to target the US and UK markets initially, with the EU following very shortly after. Excluding shipping and any duty costs, the product will be marketed on a subscription basis and priced per sachet in the US at $2.00 (USD), in the UK £1.50 (GBP), and in Europe €1.80 (EUR) and sold in boxes containing 28 sachets."
farris ffs fill yer boots.
AquaeSulis, I would question your initial supply figure, 20-30k is way to high in my opinion. I dont know where you got that figure from.
A real good question to firmly nail down at the manchester meet. I intend to go. Also want to get some real meat on the bone regarding any potential "delay", in then increasing subscriptions further "while we assure continuous supply", because that's probably correct I've another theory on this one, which I also believe more.
Bit different from when well poured over statements are released, as compared to a investor asking pointed questions and not letting them side track at all.
Ref target subscriptions. This is just a target, not a prediction, without even a deadline. Any suggestion 20-30k will be the initial launch is based on investor guesswork and not based on fact. Let's not repeat the mistakes some OPTI investors have made by attempting to second guess value; history proves retail investors are usually proving themselves to be over optimistic.
I do not anticipate Axis will be delayed. SA usually delivers on his timelines. He has not missed one yet. I suspect the USA market will receive the first bulk shipment, then the UK.
Good post Elrico,
Also one factor which we don't know will be the capacity of the digestors/reactors/ blenders that Winclove will be using. This will ultimately limit initial availability. Some of the industry I once worked in had almost 3 gallon glass flasks mixing up very expensive components up to some 20 ton reactors, and larger blending tanks.
Having several strains/ingredients, does pose some blending capacity issues as you cant sell it if you havnt enough of each, and no production schedules would ever allow for having facilities on standby awaiting an ingredient or two.
My thought process was that it may be Winclove that are actually calling the shots here, and that they dont intend to outlay a lot of capital (on process production equipment and product formulation and ingredients), until a certain customer subscription milestone is obtained. No good churning out 20 tons with a 12 month shelf life, say good for 50k customers, just to find it takes 9 months to achieve 25k subs.
So make enough to start with for say 10k subs, waste nothing and don't tie up larger more expensive equipment either.
If it goes well then scale up the next batch, knowing 10k are guaranteed, however this will cause sales delays (oh dressed up as .......guaranteeing supply to customers). Call me a cynic, but thats what we would do.
Which does flashback in a way to a previous post wondering if "pre-reregistering for supply might snaffle all availability".
Certainly interesting times ahead for us here.
belgrano, Winclove already have capacity for 500,000 subs so no outlay for equipment. Also the shelf life is at least 2 years, so no problem there either.
Hi Toyin,
Yes know they can possibly supply 500K before outsourcing, but there's no way they'd ever do that, before having at least a guaranteed market. Bear in mind to churn out that quantity going to tie up a hell of a lot of production which I expect is currently employed elsewhere. Not just the final blending but ingredient digesting at scale and storage. No large scale manufacturer does this, and many of the different runs I used to be involved in would have a run plan several months ahead.