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Apologies for being late to this but has no one asked SAVP?
Do you have a link to this article?
Yawn
Thanks, NtoM - I post with a heavy heart. I've been invested here for a long time, before the RTO, and have no joy in airing these thoughts. I hope they are shown to be misplaced.
Good luck.
"" There is no evidence available from SAVP on this - that is why we need the RNS.
The article states there were unpaid invoices of $66m for Jan-Sep 2019. Projected at the same rate, by March 2020 there will be unpaid invoices of $132m. According to the article, the guarantee is for a maximum of $118m. Then project for a further 6 months!. The Nigerian Govt is far less able to pay now that the oil price has fallen well below their budget predication. And just how effective is a guarantee that, if you call on it, you will damage the credit rating of a country and lose the goodwill of the Nigerian Government to the extent that you might as well exit the country (perhaps a good thing?)?
These 'unpaid invoices' are of critical importance. We need the RNS.''
I'd be equally happy if you didn't post this :-) but I'm never one for shutting people up of their opinion and yours is at least somewhat nail on head imho HappySparrow.
In difficult times the old stereotype is dusted down and paraded (if the parade isn't cancelled because of the virus):
It's Nigeria... debtors don't pay unless/until it suits them. And in a low PoO environment the government is relativey quickly not in a position to houour its guarantees.
(I note there are big player non Nigerian parties involved in guarantees here of course.. whcih should help a lot, whatever)
“ I’ve been here when we didn’t get a single post all week.”
That was the week you kept going on about Miton selling.....
I’m talking about 3 years ago Sankeys but don’t let that get in the way of being sarcastic.
Risky -extract: 'Despite it being a changing landscape, I'm pretty well up to speed in things relating to the Nigerian power plant sector payments and lack of liquidity in the sector. Savannah have navigated these issues successfully during 2019 not least because of the partial risk guarantee, which has worked well.....
So there's no need to rely on a company RNS to get a handle on how things are for the Accugas business currently and how it should pan out going forward into 2020.'
You say 'On the evidence available, and taking into consideration that article, this is still the case. '
There is no evidence available from SAVP on this - that is why we need the RNS.
The article states there were unpaid invoices of $66m for Jan-Sep 2019. Projected at the same rate, by March 2020 there will be unpaid invoices of $132m. According to the article, the guarantee is for a maximum of $118m. Then project for a further 6 months!. The Nigerian Govt is far less able to pay now that the oil price has fallen well below their budget predication. And just how effective is a guarantee that, if you call on it, you will damage the credit rating of a country and lose the goodwill of the Nigerian Government to the extent that you might as well exit the country (perhaps a good thing?)?
These 'unpaid invoices' are of critical importance. We need that RNS.
HS, to be blunt, it was you who was using a 3 month old biased article to scare people into selling so you can self justify your decision. Making investment decisions based on internet news sites is your own prerogative, but you shouldnt push it on others. Lets wait for the RNS to see whos posts were wrong.
“ I’ve been here when we didn’t get a single post all week.”
That was the week you kept going on about Miton selling.....
Not sure I understand why peeps sold yesterday and I buying today. Nothing changed for savp other than you could buy easily sub 8p yesterday. Sold all my blue chips today that I bought yesterday as a trade and now sitting out as US at risk from virus (inertia) and Italian banks could deliver a big shock. Sure there will probably be fiscal stimulus and more QE to give a lift but I’m thinking watch the cv19 numbers in US and eurozone for now and wait as expecting another dip as for Savp surely we are at a point where Armageddon is priced in? Time will tell. Gla
Trek
HappySparrow. Having checked back over my posts ...
I said "Savannah have navigated these issues successfully during 2019 not least because of the partial risk guarantee, which has worked well." On the evidence available, and taking into consideration that article, this is still the case.
The NOMAD has a duty to ensure that Savannah reports to the market without delay any developments that may lead to a significant movement in its share price, including a change in its financial condition. So I reasoned that any material shortfall in the expected cash receipts at year end would be reported by now.
Energy sector may rebound soon.
On Reuters, Moscow Energy Ministry meeting up with oil companies today to discuss co-operating with OPEC.
Thank you, nen.
Who cares if people post while not holding ? Post as bloody much as you like.
If you have something to add to the group then do it.
I’ve been here when we didn’t get a single post all week.
Sankeys, I sold out in February at considerable loss. I stopped posting then, and only started again when Risky made, in my view, a seriously misleading statement regarding the need for an RNS on this matter. If that matter can be cleared up satisfactorily then I might reinvest - but 'might' is a big word when you have lost the trust of the BoD to reveal material information.
Check out my posting history before casting aspersions.
Strange how much of your time is devoted to a company you sold out of in December, i think a week or so for RNS so why dont we see you next Tuesday?
Tier, the only figure you need is the balance for all the outstanding 'unpaid invoices' at month end February 2020. They know that figure, they just have to report it. The non-disclosure of this key monthly information has gone on for over a year; a year in which the CEO has taken a huge unjustified whack out of the company, and, if I recall directly, no director has bought.
30% down needs 43% up to recover. Still a bit to go to be @Friday close. A long long way to be @28p. Sorry guys I know it’s obvious maths still I cannot help myself. My way to de-stress :)
At least the market recovers a bit today.
a bit of bounce back momentum here so far today, very thankfully..
..there has been talk here about an RNS being prepared for release this week.. a good one in the next day or two could be very timely indeed towards get some genuine bounce back momentum going here.. so here's very much hoping !
Is there genuine confidence among people who are close to IR here that such a reassurance RNS is actually going to be issued this week?
Ps: Trinity did a very strong one of similar fashion today and I appreciated it a lot and will add back some there now soon enough off the back. ( I only sold down it and one or two other quality plays towards getting a war chest ready for here.. as i'm in a big hole here now .. and see incrementally range trading my way out of a hole over time as the best way to go here)
Bluebelly,
I know little about gas pricing benchmarks, but a few guys on Parkmead board helped my understanding a little further. I guess you're quoting Henry Hub futures in your $1.71 and $1.82 below. It being a US market relevant benchmark. I asked was there a European equivalent measure and was told that it's all about local contracts across countries and even in region in country and there are wide variences in the prices achieved across these contracts, based on a host of factors ( I still guess there must be some European umbrella benchmark(s) ?) and that strikes me as particularly true for SAVP in Nigeria... and very good local medium/ longterm fixed price(s?) are in existence for SAVP with its end clients in Nigeria, including guaranteed minimum payments as Zengas so fully talks about.. So Henry Hub futures movemrnts are effectively irrelenvant here, I guess? Very happy to stand corrected and have my understanding further enhanced here.
Was expecting a pull back up to nearly 9p this morning and hoped to buy at 6.5p and sell at 8.5p. even predicting the move hasn't helped - it proved impossible to trade unless I had taken an overnight risk. I may as well just walk away and leave it as the market makers are too clever for me.
Adding to yesterdays post:
'And just to add to the situation Natural Gas is up at the moment @ $1.71'.
Gas is now $1.82 as it was on the 6th Feb 20 when we were priced around 16.3p.
BB
On the subject of a privatisation of Calabar NIPP ... if Calabar were to be sold by its owner NDPHC, then the Partial Risk Guarantee PRG documentation ensures that NBET is responsible for the gas sales agreement between Accugas and NDPHC:
"the privatisation of the Calabar NIPP is being considered by the Nigerian government. In the situation that the privatisation proceeds, then the relevant PRG documentation envisages that Nigerian Bulk Electricity Trading plc (“NBET”), a Federal Government of Nigeria owned public liability company which is a party to the PRG documentation, will assume all of the obligations of NDPHC under those documents at the point in time at which privatisation occurs."
from the AIM admission document page 50.
I was one of those smart ars*s buying at 14p last week, oops!
'I spoke with someone today and will update at some point' - ie meaning the company will update at some point .
I spoke with someone today and will update at some point but i don't think they'll react just because we are sufferring so to speak.
I think it's either Bondholders selling off the remnants, low liquidity, PIs maybe buying what thery thought a bargain at 14-15p only getting shafted as it fell lower and having to offload again making matters worse with fewer buyers around, then the virus/oil price reaction and many more heading for the hills pushing the share price even disproportionately lower ???
For what it's worth has anyone considered that SAVP/AIIM might be in negotiations re potential changes into privatisation and can't comment re the gas customers ?
About 10-11 power plants and stations appear to being privatised in order to make better efficiences, bureacracy and bring in financing for the expansion of the electricity sector. The latest new Accugas customer 5 weeks ago was with Afam Power plant an affiliate company of Sahara Group (so a private entity).
I've seen Calabar mentioned a few times so likely will be new owners (maybe our partners bidding/in discussion for all we know). That asks the question of the Calabar contract for the next 30+ years. Is there a buy out clause or compensation for such a contract up to a the cut off point and privatisation ?? I've no doubt under the sovereign guarantee Savp will get paid its past debts (It's Savp insurers who get paid) up until privatisation. Maybe that explains the uncertainty. Alaoji is also mentioned and Savp announced a supply deal in Dec 2018 with Alaoji Power Station, the same government entity (NDPHC) that holds Calabar. It too is being privatised so imo that's why we havent had any update on Alaoji as a customer yet in the last 15 months but from memory i'm nearly sure AK did mention it as an expected customer soon.
In addition Nigerias InfraCredit is offerring £600m of funding over 15 years. I see the US Government (USAID) has also stepped in with a co-guarantee for a 15 year bond to provide local currency guarantees and mobilize long term debt financing to help develop Nigerias Power sector (1/3/20)
Alaoji Power Station, Abia State,
Omotosho II Power Station, Ondo State,
Olorunsogo II Power Station, Ogun State,
Geregu II Power Station, Kogi State.
Ihovbor Power Station Benin,
Calabar Power Station, Cross River State
Egbema Power Station, Imo State
Gbarain Power Station, Yenagoa
Sapele Power Station
Omoku Power Station, Rivers State, and
Ikot Abasi Power Station, Akwa Ibom
https://nairametrics.com/2019/07/21/investors-to-access-n300-billion-as-fg-sets-to-privatise-power-companies/