Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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RR,
What do you mean by SDX and its re-emergence? I was in years ago and it looks in very poor shape and the bb is dead as a dodo. One poster did sa though that it might either be bought or buy. Sorry for being off topic but I am wondering if there might be an opportunity there
Africa Oil Week
My trip to Africa Oil Week was extremely fruitful and a number of countries as well as companies showed just how well they are doing on the continent. Country wise I would pinpoint Angola, Namibia, South Africa and Nigeria as being in the spotlight, the latter due to San Leon Energy being able to announce the huge funding for the pipeline during the conference. Also speaking to Apache I learned more about Egypt and why Pharos and others remain keen.
The other country that was being mentioned a great deal was Morocco, ahead of next week’s Morocco Summit it was good to see a full complement of Chariot executives speaking at the conference and plenty of chatter about Sound and its progress (see below) as well as SDX and its reemergence and of course the exciting potential at Predator who won’t be at the Summit.
Clearly Afentra are doing very well in Angola and I’m just picking up on Corcel as well who are in country. Finally Eco Atlantic appear to be gearing up for a spectacular campaign, not just in Africa either.
Finally whilst British Airways cannot be blamed for the cancellation and 28 hour delay of the return flight from Cape Town to London but it can be delayed for a disgraceful policy of overbooking which led to an unseemly session of fare paying passengers being booted into touch…
He would probably like to keep that quiet now (only joking)
I think he played a massive part in us obtaining our Niger licences back in the day
TiL - yeas good to see and I did not realise he was a co-founder of SAVE back in 2014. For some reason I though he was more of a recent appointment.
Great to see Yacine Wafy Savannah Director in this list - https://www.choiseul-africa.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Choiseul-100-Africa_2023-1.pdf
I know we hardly produce any oil ATM but this bodes very well for us should we eventually get hold of some decent production. Well worth a read. Also with all the weakness around gas prices ATM, I’m really liking our price gas contract + annual inflation increases.
https://uk.investing.com/news/commodities-news/oil-prices-surge-on-spr-refill-plans-middle-east-fears-persist-3198075
RR
The Reuters article refers to the black market rate when dollars are in short supply.
Aboki FX is the black market rate.
Aboki FX Lagos parallel market rates https://abokifx.com/home
Below is the official rate and has been in a steady band since being allowed to free float by the Central bank. I'm not expecting any hit on SAVE in this second half. Since it was devalued in June - it 's been steady ever since in a tight band at the 775 level . That's the official bank level - the other is the unofficial black market rate. I seriously doubt if the Central Bank would devalue it again.
Dollar-Naira charts
1 year - https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=NGN
last month to date - https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=NGN&view=1M
Hi scotpak - hope you’re well and still looking in? As you seem to have your finger on the pulse of the NGN fx stuff, what are your views on the Reuters note I put on earlier today and specifically what impact it may have on our refinance work stream and the associated term sheet?
"The videos, which were circulated on Sunday and Monday, purportedly showed the men engaging in intimate acts with other people..." Well, at least it was people, I suppose...
I'm a bit confused on the NGN issue, spot quotes appear some stronger at about 780 to the dollar. I suppose the article is right. If so, expect another fx hit to H2 p&l, albeit smaller than H1. Sigh.
K & TiL - considering the super 7 are divesting $bn’s of assets and we have ‘once in a lifetime’ opportunity to grow our hydrocarbon and renewable footprint in Africa, it seeks like a bloody hard job in finding the deals we want and trust. Like you say, with all this networking going on, surely something has to come to fruition at some point - and hopefully soon.
On another note, and i have no idea how this impacts our ‘imminent’ re-finance of Accugas debt:-
ABUJA, Oct 18 (Reuters) - Nigeria's naira hit a record low of 1,100 per dollar on the black market on Wednesday, online platform abokiFX showed, a day after the currency hit a new low on the official market due to persistent dollar shortages.
The naira has been in freefall on the unofficial market, where it trades freely, which worsened after currency restrictions were lifted on the official market.
The unit fell to a record low of 980 naira to the dollar on the official market on Tuesday.
The central bank has said it will intervene in the foreign exchange market occasionally to boost liquidity, after last week ending an eight-year ban on some items that were restricted from accessing dollars on the official market.
Last month, the currency slid past 1,000 naira per dollar on the black market and continued to weaken as excess dollar demand is funnelled into the informal market from the official market.
And finally a FYI:-
N'DJAMENA, Oct 18 (Reuters) - Chad's defence minister and the government's general secretary resigned on Wednesday, an administration spokesman said, after two separate sex tapes purporting to show the men were shared widely on social media.
Prime Minister Saleh Kebzabo accepted the resignations of defence minister Daoud Yaya Brahim and the government's general secretary Haliki Choua Mahamat, Kebzabo's spokesman said in a statement, without giving further details.
The videos, which were circulated on Sunday and Monday, purportedly showed the men engaging in intimate acts with other people. Reuters could not independently verify the material and was not immediately able to reach either man for comment.
Sex scandals are rare in Chad, a mostly Muslim country with conservative social morals.
Thanks TiL. At some point all of this is going to come to fruition!!
Komakino - Savannah is also at 3rd Morocco Oil & Gas Summit and Exhibition next week. Yacine Wafy presenting - https://www.in-vr.co/morocco-oilandgas
Seems like they are are probably interested in North Africa as well..................
Https://www.zawya.com/en/press-release/africa-press-releases/media-invited-to-attend-libya-energy-economic-summit-noxdbz7g
Energy Capital&Power (www.EnergyCapitalPower.com) extends an official invitation to energy and general news media to participate at the second edition of the Libya Energy&Economic Summit – scheduled for November 8-9 in Tripoli’s Rixos Convention Centre. Media will have the opportunity to be at the center of this historic summit.
In partnership with the Office of the Prime Minister and with the support of the Ministry of Oil and Gas and the National Oil Corporation (NOC), this historic summit is poised to bring together leaders and participants from the energy, finance, trading and infrastructure sectors. The 2023 event follows the resounding success of its inaugural edition in 2021, which marked a historic milestone as the first major energy investment event held in Tripoli in a decade. Media representatives are invited to cover this second edition, one that promises to shape the future of Libya's energy landscape.
The two-day program features an official reception on November 8 with keynotes delivered from dignitaries as well as strategic panel discussions and presentations across two stages on November 9. The reception and summit feature keynotes from Libyan leaders including Abdulhamid M. Al Dabiba, Prime Minister of the State of Libya; Farhat Omar Bengdara, Chairman of the NOC; and Mohamed Oun, Minister of Oil and Gas of Libya.
International invited digitaries include Giorgia Meloni, Prime Minister of the Republic of Italy; Robert Abela, Prime Minister of the Republic of Malta; and Alparsian Bayraktar, Minister of Energy and Natural Resources of the Republic of Turkey.
The Libya Energy&Economic Summit 2023 is proud to work with sponsors TotalEnergies, BGN, Repsol, ConocoPhillips, Savannah Energy, OMV and more, and with official supporters Renewable Energy Association of Libya, AmCham Libya, Libyan British Business Association, U.S.-Libya Business Association, African Energy Chamber, and Rystad Energy.
Was about to caution your optimism even though I sense its a bit "tongue in cheek", but at least you seem a bit more relaxed than you were a few weeks back after the publication of earnings.
Good luck to all, and I sincerely hope our patience is rewarded.
“Savannah intend to publish an AIM Admission Document in respect of the PETRONAS Acquisition on or before 15 December 2023.“
So if the deal were to close on 15th Dec, it could be 100 weeks of economic interest to SAVE if the effective date was 1/1/2021. As we know the purchase price was stated as up to $1,250m and we are hoping that a decent chunk of that will be paid post deal closure from future production. Obviously we would all like this number to be as high as possible but I’m sure Petronas will want a reasonable amount of cash (debt to ourselves) in order that we take our own fair share of risk in the deal, especially with the ongoing unrest in Sudan and possible threat to the export pipeline.
So let’s say we managed to agree $300m from future production, it would leave $950m, minus the economic interest calculation for the 100 week period. Over the last 100 weeks, I would guess that Brent has taveraged somewhere around $90 and I am assuming average daily production of 40k (I would hope a worst case number). Now if we were to be credited with $30 per barrel we would see a reduction from the $950m of $840m (100 weeks x 7 days x 40,000boepd x $30) leaving us with only $110m of debt.
If the conservative daily production number or $30 / barrel were to be slightly higher, we would clear the $950m in full.
These numbers seem a bit too good to be true, so I’d appreciate anybody on here marking my homework and commenting accordingly.
Just over 8.5 weeks to go…anybody thinking of arranging the £1 Christmas Party - PMSL
Thank you, JD; appreciated.
Let’s hope that Governments looking to award us contracts take all this great work we are doing into consideration when compared to our peers and sign on the dotted line. We know that the super 7 looking to divest assets take this seriously when selling to juniors, so we need to have all our sustainability ducks lines up (which we have in spades and some) but it’s the likes of Kiir and his ministers who need to value this stuff when making their final decisions and getting their Mont Blanc fountain pens out:-
#Savannah is delighted to announce that we have been shortlisted in the upcoming 2023 @IRSocietyUK Best Practice Awards for the ‘Best Communication of Sustainability’! The awards will be held on 21 November 2023 in London.
This award recognises year-round continued communications with investors and stakeholders, setting out the way that a company approaches the identification, assessment and management of sustainability-related opportunities, risks and performance, and, ultimately, how this underpins a company’s long-term resilience and sustainable growth. We are pleased to be recognised for our integrated approach to sustainability communications, focusing on our corporate purpose of delivering ‘#ProjectsthatMatter’ and underpinning our efforts to address energy poverty in Africa through both hydrocarbon AND renewable energy.
Read more about our sustainability.
2022 Sustainability Report bit.ly/3JLZYsn
2022 Savannah Energy TCFD Report bit.ly/3Qt2Fmx
2022 Savannah Energy SASB Report bit.ly/3Qf28Ep
#Sustainability
#BestPracticeAwards2023
#ProjectsthatMatter
Many thanks Rocky; and thanks for comments JDC.
Public info seems to indicate optimism around Nigeria & friends in the know say Naira / $ exchanges becoming a little more orderly if still a waiting game - both of which one imagines is constructive to refi, or in absence thereof allows for repayment month by month (with some months delay in swapping currencies) to see debt reduce.
Share JDC’s concern around Moscow protagonist(s) but hope Petronas stay true to their SPA agreement.
Nothing much to add - watching & waiting.
CYB - I will keep my ear to the ground. I overheard AK is still in Sth Sudan and is not currently in Sth Africa (yet?) - not clear if that's planned/unplanned, make of it what you will.
Many thanks also to Rocky for sharing the excellent IR post.
Thx for posting. Nice to gain some clarity about debt situation.
Slightly concerned about Kiir visit to Russia. I've read Russian translation of their statements on energy and potential funding of refinery. Of course Caltech announcement ...and then it's withdrawal and SSudan closer alignment with a sanctioned country must be a fluke or mere coincidence. Also multiple sackings in recent weeks in Kiir's government. Weirdly I still want the deal to close but it's a massive and risky step. 8 weeks and counting....
Enjoy reading the posts (silent) these last few years and this forum has some of the most astute observations. I have plenty of skin in this game.
cj
Thanks, Rocky. Very kind of you to share this.
I feel that Sally, understandably, has to toe the line here. That said, it's clear that the deal still has a pulse given her comments.
One other thing: I don't believe that the interims repeated that reference to another hydrocarbon deal closing by year-end. I may be reading too much into matters, but perhaps other deals may have fallen away.
I'm hoping that fellow poster JDC might find out the current state of Naira liquidity (in size) when mingling at the Africa Energy session in Cape Town. We'd love your insight, JD. In between glasses of Stellenbosch, of course.
Best wishes from Belgrade.
Rocky - just to reiterate, thanks very much for the update. You greatly contribute to keeping us all sane on here. The comment about the African energy arena being a roller coaster ride couldn't be truer - and being a true "save"r I often ask myself would I have it any other way? I have a theory that all save s'holders are thrill seekers as there is never a dull moment with so many dramatic ups and downs . atb
K - hi and good to see you here again. I like many other look for the clues on the way words are put together - but it is really hard to get 2 + 2 = 4. But from the long set of replies I posted, here are my quick take aways.
1 could be longer than I hoped for before we get to the 3 + 1 ICC rulings
2 at long last debt restructure does seem a lot closer (sigh of relief)
3 this is my main one by far. There is a sentence:- “ We plan to give a detailed strategic update for all investors around the publication of our Admission Document in Q4 2023.” I am not on about the 1st part of the sentence re strategic update! I am on about the “around the publication of our AD in Q4 2023”. I am hoping that they really do believe this will happen. Maybe it was just genuinely missed word but this bit did not have the word “expected publication”!!!
Anyway like Z says - just a big waiting game now. Maybe we will get debt RNS soon and maybe a few AI papers if they find out a few new snippets. Strange the Caltech stuff came and left like a hurricane with nothing being heard of it since. Strange old set up this African oil business stuff - but hey ho it is what it is. We could come back sub 20p or over a quid!!!
Thanks RR, as ever appreciate these updates.
'we would note that both ourselves and PETRONAS are continuing to engage fully with the Government of South Sudan and are all working together in country as we continue to progress the transaction to its expected completion.'
I guess they wouldn't be saying anything too different either way but the phrase 'expected completion' does suggest that it could be positive for us after all.