Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Thanks Mr. B. Not seen anything from Chad news agencies yet. Couple of posts on social media in the last couple of hours from Chad that pique the interest e.g.
'What is Djerassem hiding on the SAVANNAH vs. Chad case?
Looks like the urine under the carpet is starting to smell'
'Savannah just won her lawsuit 😂
Little genius is terminated 🤣
The Chad '
Hopefully get some more details filtering through over the next day or so.
N'DJAMENA, Oct 26 (Reuters) - Chad has dismissed Petroleum and Energy Minister Djerassem le Bemadjiel, the government said in a decree on Thursday. It did not give a reason or name a replacement.
The government also said that Daoud Hamid Dabou was named Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Société des Hydrocarbures du Tchad, the state oil company, replacing Dago Yacouba.
Chad earlier this year nationalized all the assets and rights including hydrocarbon permits and exploration and production authorisations that belonged to a subsidiary of Exxon Mobil (XOM.N), after contesting a deal to sell them to Savannah Energy (SAVES.L).
https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/chad-dismisses-oil-minister-government-decree-2023-10-26/
Surprised we’ve not seen stuff on these. We’re we not sponsors of a couple that have passed now and wan’t somebody on here going to one of them in South Africa?
Nigeria Supreme Court dismisses election challenges by Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-67227814
Agreed Komakino - just interesting that the media coverage has started to come alive in regard to South Sudan oil and gas sector so must mean plenty of deliberations going on in the background
Til, you would hope this was positive for Save, but I guess after all the hiatus recently we'll just have to wait and see as usual. Thanks for the post anyway.
Seems like South Sudan may be scrapping there plans to nationalise assets if they have asked CNPC to boost production, so highly likely that there will be an extension on the PSC that were due to expire in 2027, I wonder what this means for savannah one would hope positive if they approve the savannah deal than we can work with CNPC to increase production as well.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-24/south-sudan-asks-china-s-cnpc-to-boost-oil-output-stay-longer?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-markets&utm_content=markets&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&leadSource=uverify%20wall
And a 2nd RNS. Looks like Aberdeen just shifting things about a bit between funds.
PART 2
8B1. Financial Instruments according to (DTR5.3.1R.(1) (a))
Type of financial Expiration date Exercise/conversion period Number of voting rights % of voting rights
instrument that may be acquired if
the instrument is
exercised/converted
Sub Total 8.B1
=========================================== ========================= ==================
8B2. Financial Instruments with similar economic effect according to (DTR5.3.1R.(1) (b))
Type of financial Expiration date Exercise/conversion Physical or cash Number of voting % of voting rights
instrument period settlement rights
Sub Total 8.B2
========================================================= =================== ==================
9. Information in relation to the person subject to the notification obligation
2. Full chain of controlled undertakings through which the voting rights and/or the financial instruments are effectively held starting with the ultimate controlling natural person or legal entities (please add additional rows as necessary)
Ultimate controlling Name of controlled % of voting rights if % of voting rights Total of both if it
person undertaking it equals or is higher through financial equals or is higher
than the notifiable instruments if it than the notifiable
threshold equals or is higher threshold
than the notifiable
threshold
abrdn plc
====================== ====================== ====================== ======================
abrdn plc abrdn Investments
(Holdings) Limited
====================== ====================== ====================== ======================
abrdn plc abrdn Investment
Management Limited
====================== ====================== ====================== ======================
abrdn plc
====================== ====================== ====================== ======================
abrdn plc abrdn Holdings
Limited
====================== ====================== ====================== ======================
abrdn plc abrdn Investments
RNS Number : 1515R
Savannah Energy Plc
24 October 2023
TR-1: Standard form for notification of major holdings
1. Issuer Details
ISIN
GB00BP41S218
Issuer Name
SAVANNAH ENERGY PLC
UK or Non-UK Issuer
UK
2. Reason for Notification
An acquisition or disposal of voting rights
3. Details of person subject to the notification obligation
Name
Aggregate of abrdn plc affiliated investment management entities with delegated voting rights on behalf of multiple managed portfolios
City of registered office (if applicable)
Edinburgh
Country of registered office (if applicable)
United Kingdom
4. Details of the shareholder
Full name of shareholder(s) if different from the person(s) subject to the notification obligation, above
City of registered office (if applicable)
Country of registered office (if applicable)
5. Date on which the threshold was crossed or reached
20-Oct-2023
6. Date on which Issuer notified
23-Oct-2023
7. Total positions of person(s) subject to the notification obligation
% of voting rights % of voting rights Total of both in % Total number of
attached to shares through financial (8.A + 8.B) voting rights held
(total of 8.A) instruments (total in issuer
of 8.B 1 + 8.B 2)
Resulting situation Below 5% 0.000000 Below 5% Below 5%
on the date on
which threshold was
crossed or reached
====================== ====================== ====================== ======================
Position of
previous
notification (if
applicable) 6.488637 0.000000 6.488637
====================== ====================== ====================== ======================
8. Notified details of the resulting situation on the date on which the threshold was crossed or reached
8A. Voting rights attached to shares
Class/Type of shares Number of direct Number of indirect % of direct voting % of indirect voting
ISIN code(if possible) voting rights (DTR5.1) voting rights rights (DTR5.1) rights (DTR5.2.1)
(DTR5.2.1)
GB00BP41S218 Below 5% Below 5%
====================== ====================== ====================== ======================
Sub Total 8.A Below 5% Below 5%
============================================== ==============================================
8B1. Financial Instru
Thanks Scotpak for your analysis considering that Savannah have already said they have a term sheet in place one would assume that they have a provisional agreement. I am hoping that they are able to execute this in short order. Considering we have waited a very long time for the accugas debt to be re-structured.
Hi RR
Sorry I missed your post. On nigeria's recent FX vol and likely affect on loan refinancing I would make the following points:
> FX availability (mainly USD) in Nigeria remains tough. There is a $12bn backlog that needs to be resolved between the govt/ local bank/corps and this will take time
> Currency devaluation & new Central bank governor are both positive steps in resolving this. Concrete steps yet to be announced but market remains hopeful
>> More specifically on the loan:
a) Nigerian bank have been very solid recording record profits for 1H2023 (partly helped by FX positioning)
b) At the local Naira level (not USD) there is an abundance of liquidity and the central banks have been pushing banks to lend more to corporates
c) There is some Middle East and Chinese bank involvement in local financing which should help.
Thus the colour Im getting on Naira denominated loans seems supportive for Savannah's own loan refinancing requirement.
Agreed rocky shame that savannah only refer to work streams as to avoid speculation they have really kept this really water tight. Agreed it could be a number of things. If there are a number of things I would say highly likely that this deal gets further extensions into next year. Personally if we don’t hear any news by mid to late November then I would assume that they are in the same position as end of September. I personally don’t think we need to wait till December 15th as per day to gauge if there has been progress
TiL - but we don’t know that it’s Gov sign off holding up the deal. There are many other factors that could be holding things up, such as:-
Partners
Funding
Licensing
Nigeria debt refinance being in place
II’s not happy with structure of deal
Petronas issues
Sudan war and associated politics
To name but a few.
I find the first article quite intriguing as the investor confidence is purely driven by them. On one hand they are comparing that the investment sentiment is low and yet they are very slow in approving savannah deal. Makes no sense at all approving savannah deal will go along way in bring back confidence in the South Sudan oil and gas sector and rejecting it will kill any investment for the foreseeable future
Interesting coverage on south sudan and oil sector with a couple of articles:
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/investor-fatigue-hits-south-sudans-oil-production-bogere-charles%3FtrackingId=xaE9JjrrT4q%252FLkHjdItuRg%253D%253D/?trackingId=VnBO%2FF2CTX6YN%2BKCPg7jnA%3D%3D
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/foreign-invstment-network_believeinafrica-partnerships-economicgrowth-activity-7122186320382193664-gmmM?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
The Nigerian government has won a case in a British Court that has overturned an $11bn (£9bn) damages bill awarded to a firm in 2019 following a dispute over a failed gas deal.
The fine amounted to a huge chunk of Nigeria's foreign reserves.
Monday's ruling is part of a protracted legal battle between British Virgin Islands-based firm Process and Industrial Developments Limited (P&ID) and the Nigerian government.
Nigeria's lawyers argued that P&ID had paid bribes to obtain the contract and corrupted lawyers to obtain confidential documents. P&ID denied Nigeria's allegations, blaming the failure of the gas deal on institutional incompetence.
Nigerian President Bola Ahmed Tinubu welcomed the decision by the Business and Property Court in London.
In a statement, he described it as a victory for Africa and the developing world, which he said had long been on the receiving end of “overt exploitation”.
Campaign group Spotlight on Corruption said Nigeria’s economic prospects had been held hostage by what it said was an arbitration award built on bribes and lies.
In his ruling released on Monday, the judge found that P&ID had paid bribes to a Nigerian oil ministry official in connection with a 2010 gas contract, and had failed to disclose this when it took Nigeria to court after the deal fell through.
Nigeria Sees $10 Billion Inflows Easing Liquidity Crunch
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-23/nigeria-sees-10-billion-inflows-easing-forex-liquidity-crunch
I won't paste article for fear of Mike Bloomberg's lawyers approaching me, but it mentions weeks as the timeframe for this and also the official NGN rate reaching nearly 1,000 a few days back (already discussed on this board).
S, I think posters (the clever ones not me:) don’t know the answer rather than unwilling to help :) some even unsure if it’s wise to invest in this sector? Good luck if you decide to get involved in prd.
Meanwhile SAVERS longingly await at least one big deal announcement by Dec 15. Missing the pages and pages of traffic here.
Apologies for off topic but aware there could be some on here that have a reasonable opinion/knowledge on Predator oil. I have a friend that just went in on it in a reasonably big way based on another friends tip( which I knows not great). From what I can see it’s purely an exploration play. Anyone have any decent knowledge on whether it’s a good punt/option.
From a pure supply/demand perspective, then as long as our Oil (not that we have any really yet) can be sold, $140 would obviously be better for Save than $80. $140 is only going to be hit if some of the existing supply can't get to market and there is still the same demand as now, so as long as ours can then there would be great financial benefits to SAVE.
Obviously, however, there are lots of other important reasons for not wanting this to happen, as a lot of people would suffer financial hardship if it did, not to say that it would only likely come about if there is an escalation in the current conflict which nobody wants. So yes, $80-100 is good for me too.
I would not want to see $140 oil for ANY reason, most of all by an escalation in the Middle East. I would not want to see it even from supply / demand imbalance due to lack of CAPEX spending over the last 8 years. $80 - $100 oil is the sweet spot for me, giving oil companies HUGE profits whilst not affecting regional / global inflation / recessions too much.
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Allianz-Trade-Says-Oil-Could-Hit-140.html
RR's post was from Malcy's Blog, not RR's words. If you want to see what Malcy has been saying about SDX use the link below
https://www.malcysblog.com/?s=sdx
RR I have just seen the statement in Malkys Blog I will do more research