Ryan Mee, CEO of Fulcrum Metals, reviews FY23 and progress on the Gold Tailings Hub in Canada. Watch the video here.
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Https://www.energyintel.com/0000018d-c744-d02b-abed-e7653b6b0000
Hi Z - quick question if I may:-
If Niger came on initially at 1.5kboepd transported via the new pipeline and moved 35mboe from 2C to 2P what would you value that at to us. And additionally what would you value it at 5kboepd?
My concern here is that we are quoting 35mboe 2C even before any well tests. Hope to god Amdigh + the other 4 do commercially produce.
Do we have about 2.8bn boe risked recoverable here to shoot for?
Obviously we’d have to fork out the CAPEX and construct our tie-in pipeline at Agadem. But David Clarkson told me this could be done in less than 3 months (could already be done for all we know) as it’s a very simple, modular, plug and play design.
Back to the good old days convo LOL
Brilliant find Zengas and lots of news outlets reporting now.
Acquisitions or not savannah should get equipment in Niger in March and start operations in April / May. I hope they stop dilly dadle and final start paying Niger the attention it deserves sometimes concentrating on what you have is the best way to move forward.
Need to see a serious plan for Niger out in place now for the year
Updated 3:50 PM GMT, February 24, 2024
ABUJA, Nigeria (AP) — West Africa’s regional bloc known as ECOWAS has lifted travel, commercial and economic sanctions imposed on Niger that were aimed at reversing the coup staged in the country last year, a senior official announced Saturday.
https://apnews.com/article/west-africa-ecowas-niger-mali-burkina-faso-abuja-ae53abf8464dce5487cd7a3d73e0a9c0
Https://nairametrics.com/2024/02/09/president-tinubu-signs-amended-electricity-bill-into-law/
Another week chalked off, all quiet on the savannah front, anyone got live trackers on where savannah staff are at
Hello SailPlane,
Circa March/April 2022.
Best, 🐸
..wonder how long ago that was taken...
https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/africa/ep-africa/546940/savannah-clocks-another-south-sudan-extension/
Thanks for this Tier, and for your superb contribution too.
Very best, 🐸
‘You can call me RockyDem or AgaRide’ he says. Good night. News 7am?
Komakino - "No one can foresee how things will always turn out but coming back to gloat is never a good move."
Yep, not very astute, indeed, but with age...😉
Thank you Komakino and zengas too, and TrustILie and RockyRide, amongst others, for your superb contribution to this BB. You make this long wait bearable.
RockyRide reminds me very much of agadem, who I hope is doing well health-wise 😉
Very best to you all, 🐸
Well he was rather optimistic then :) like you said I hope the devaluation is done and Save has been smart enough not to lose too much during this devaluation 2.
That article references an IMF staff report that was released as a Feb 24 report but contains the following paragraph:
The Staff Report prepared by a staff team of the IMF for the Executive Board’s consideration on a lapse-of-time basis, following discussions that ended on October 27, 2023, with the officials of Nigeria on economic developments and policies. Based on information available at the time of these discussions, the staff report was completed on December 14, 2023.
Thus given the Naira has depreciated around 100% vs the USD since those dates (oct 27 & Dec 14), the 35% depreciation mentioned by that article is very out of date and in fact massively underestimates the amount of actual depreciation that took place.
Just google IMF and Nigeria and you can easily find the IMF staff report.
Https://www.arise.tv/imf-warns-naira-may-experience-further-35-depreciation-in-2024-due-to-local-production-challenges/
Of course they can be wrong. I hope they are.
Https://punchng.com/nigeria-to-woo-energy-investors-at-iae-forum/
Bottom line is Naira devaluation is now over. Official rate in line with street rate. Balance sheet has taken a hit but it is manageable, and hopefully we can look forward and regard this as a big one-off hit which was necessary to revive the nigerian economy and crucially to allow FX flows to pick up.
Juba City team up with World Bank for city facelift -
https://cityreviewss.com/juba-city-team-up-with-world-bank-for-city-facelift/
Further from the interims re Niara impact
"The net debt at 30 June 2023 was US$443.4 million an increase of 9% from year-end position (31 December 2022: US$404.9 million). During the period US$74 million of debt was repaid however, there was an overall increase seen in net debt due to the revaluation of Naira cash balances (as discussed above). This has resulted in a marginal increase in leverage5 from 1.8x to 1.9x."
"The principal Naira denominated asset on the balance sheet was cash and this reduced in US$ terms by US$66.5 million when it was translated. This was partially offset by the reduction in Naira denominated liabilities which included borrowings and trade payables."
The interims noted an "unrealised foreign exchange loss following Naira exchange rate harmonisation of US$66.5 million" ?
They would hedge the exchange rate with a refinance.
Obviously a cost to do so but no-one would gamble on exchange rates in that manner
Exactly as I said in my short post. I read somewhere there’s rule rationing $ exchanges, or simply as a result of illiquidity. If that’s true, as caution said our big pile of naira is fast becoming Monopoly money.
For info, some observations from Thommie on ADVFN re Scotpak's post:
isnt another part of the problem that save isnt able to exchange the naira into dollars directly after getting paid due to an illiquid exchange market and thus is forced to hold big parts of the revenue in naira? So if thats still the case I expect another big fx loss in q1 as the received revenue in Naira will have lost most part of its value due to another big devaluation throughout this timeframe.
The reason they dont close the refinancing is the big devaluation of the Naira. Just imagine they close the refinancing in Naira now at an exchange rate of 1:1500. That would mean they roll over their current Dollar liability into a Naira liability on the terms of 1:1500. Their revenue is based on a fixed dollar gas price that is paid in the Naira exchange rate. So just imagine following scenario: save closes refinancing of the Dollar debt into a Naira debt now at an exchange rate of 1:1500. At 100$ debt as an example that would translate into a future debt of 150000 Naira. So we would need toll sell gas worth 100$ to pay the debt. If then in the following years the Naira gets much stronger and returns to sth like 1:750 we are getting paid only half of the Naira amount. So we would need to sell gas worth 200$ to pay down this naira debt. That means our real debt would double just on this. It would be very stupid to close such a deal now. On the other hand it would have been fantastic if save would have been able to do the refinancing a year ago when the Naira exchange rate was around 1:450? (I only guess). That would have meant, that they would only need 1/3 of time to pay it back as they are currently getting 3 times the amount of naira for their Dollar fixed contracts. Sadly that didnt happen. So in my opinion it would be the best not to do any refinancing now as long as we expect that the nigerian economy improves over the years to come and the exchange rate would then drop dramatically. Just let it be in dollars and pay it down, in the best case the earnings from a sucessful South Sudan deal will pay this dollar based debt down ... So to say a big failure of save mgmt not to refinance into a naira based debt before the big naira devaluation happened, as they planned to the do that since nearly 3 years? Refinancing now could just turn into an even bigger nightmare if there exchange rate drops inthe future and the naira getting strong er again...
Pipeline still exporting oil, albeit under logistical challenges
https://sudantribune.com/article282473/