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Https://www.eyeradio.org/president-salva-kiir-inaugurates-nilepet-hqs-in-juba/
Https://x.com/southsudangov/status/1763921608228384815?s=12&t=bdVeLrGB139mDog1SFRNlw
Thanks TIL. V encouraging!
Nigeria trying to stimulate gas sector by isettling historical debts to power generation companies
https://www.legit.ng/business-economy/energy/1581559-improved-power-supply-coming-fg-finally-pays-120-million-gas-suppliers-boost-electricity/
SS president to inaugurate nilepet office today
https://m.facebook.com/Nilepetroleumcorporation
https://x.com/patrickheinisc1/status/1763875514098356429?s=46&t=bdVeLrGB139mDog1SFRNlw
Longshort - agreed on the Nigeria fx stuff I think naira will see a material appreciation in H2 2024.
Not still convinced we are on track to achieve deal closure in this suspension window so let’s hope for another extension and see the Q1 2024 results in early April to give us an update on the wider business
Genuinely believe the Nigerian govt are on the right path here, remember the £ coming under attack due to the incompetent Gordon Brown. 6 months from now the effect of the refinery will be very positive for the Naira and inflation will hopefully take a sharp turn to the downside the foreign reserve inflows and outflows should dramatically reverse in short time. technically the high inflation should have had a positive effect on gross sales.
Hopeing for a significan Save update in next 10 trading days.
Very worrying indeed. Whatever the government is doing the currency still goes down.
Just googled. All time low on 28/2 $1=Naira1630 ; today Naira1618.
Nigeria Slams $10bn Fine On Binance, Blames FX Crisis On Crypto Trading
https://leadership.ng/nigeria-slams-10bn-fine-on-binance-blames-fx-crisis-on-crypto-trading/
Binance drops Nigerian naira from P2P platform, gov't demands $10B compensation
The removal of the naira by Binance from its P2P market comes amid claims by Nigerian authorities that the platform contributed to its devaluation.
Binance is under increased scrutiny in Nigeria as the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) expressed concerns about “suspicious flows” of funds through Binance Nigeria in 2023. CBN head Olayemi Cardoso highlighted that $26 billion had passed through Nigeria via Binance in 2023 from unidentified sources and users.
There are also reports that the National Security Adviser’s office has detained two senior Binance officials in Abuja
https://cointelegraph.com/news/binance-drops-naira-government-scrutiny
Zengas - To put it simply pulling out of the deal made more sense earlier, but with every passing month the deal becomes more favourable and tastier in terms of balance of payments so makes less sense.
It all comes down to south sudan government approval, I would imagine that Petronas and savannah want to see it through. I guess the question than depends on hard deadline approvals timeframe, as there comes a point where some sensibility comes into play.........................
Can petronas and savannah continue in stalemate on approvals for another 3, 6, 9, 12, 18 months, that's the question and it's safe to assume by the change of wording that savannah are not coming to the market without an admission document so definitely not an easy conundrum.........................
RR
I posted the below post exactly 10 months ago when some were saying they should pull out of the deal then. That time period should have shaved a further $300m imo off the settlement figure not counting the original effective start date. What is any different now in the last 10 months that imo would not have been considered after all this time since.
Why would Save imo suddendly flip flop now so unprofessionally at any sudden blip especially when they've continued this far into an 11 month neighbouring war and pull out when repairs/maintenance could be resolved at any time as well as significant efforts being made to resolve the war. As i said in the below post, i'd be absolutely surprised if they had not factored in the potential for exports being offline for 3-6-12 months at any point in the risk mitigation.
ZENGAS - 01 May 2023 -
Re should or shouldn't SAVE walk away from the S.Sudan deal.
That depends how you look at it.
First of all i believe any deal has to be non recourse to the parent group/other asset holdings just like Chad, Cameroon and Accugas Nigeria. Therefore i don't see it as putting the group at risk and no one would be that reckless least of all AK without ring-fenced financing.
If anyone is likely to pull the deal it could be the actual entity that is/was there to finance it and not so much Save.
It could be Petronas themselves who finance it - do or will they offer a financing agreement like Exxon and on what terms. They may be even keener to leave more than ever now especially as they also operate in Sudan where their complex/office in Sudan has been damaged in recent days with people unable to leave.
Any opportunist will see the potential in S.Sudan. Perenco themselves were reported as interested. Things continue as normal so far and the main worry is going to be relying on one export route - so yes i see now as the time for S.Sudan to address and develop an alternative route faster than ever. They have land bought at Djibouti for this purpose.
Can any deal be structured in a way that Save can continue say if oil exports were offline for 3-6-12 months at any point ? and it might not happen - totally unknown but i'm sure that risk has been considered.
AI reports Save will predominantly only be a partner in S.Sudan - they won't have too many to pay as they need little staff, it all comes down to the loan financing and perhaps length of it. Seplat managed to survive in a one country jurisdiction with its oil exports severely constrained for a number of times over many months while alternatives were found and the original export route re-instated.
What about the breaking story back on 18/1/22 when AI reported that it was a grand plan by the Vitol - Savannah duo for S.Sudan. Vitol is awash with serious cash and more so this past few years of high oil prices, and somebody like them could be more than willing to see this through with Save as they gain access to marketing the oil.
I may be wrong but to leave S.Sudan high and dry because of what's going on with it's neighbour would be a big blow for the South Sudanese (not their fault) and anyone thinking of investing in S.Sudan pre June if the Savannah Petronas deal collapsed - so again i'd be surprised if Save decided to pull the deal on neighbouring instability. Yes they could delay it or suspend it but i think that would open the deal to other potential buyers.
I do not want to see the deal collapse and i don't think Save will either but it will be more so in the hands of the right financing terms relative to the above.'
Longshort - In my mind I had set the 15th March as my expectation, one would expect if we don't get anything by than than the last 2 weeks of March are more about planning for further extensions that's how I tend to view each extension to be fair is if we don't have anything 2 weeks prior to deadline than we are pretty much in the same position in terms of progress.
Genuinely hoping for update within next 2 weeks as if it is after this i feel it is more likely to be extended again. If it goes on any longer Petronas will be paying us to take it off their hands ☺
Interesting to see the below, we know the export issues and as the eye radio article suggest they are progressing with repairs.
Something that caught my eye is the mention of Vitol, seems to me like Vitol are the principal trading house that market south sudanese crude, and I wonder if they played a key role in us striking an SPA with Petronas, they could be our financial backers and with a company like savannah operating south sudanese assets and increasing production they would be the principal benefactors in marketing addtional volumes if south sudan can increase it's export capacity to levels it was capable of doing previously
https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/022924-force-majeure-declared-on-south-sudans-dar-blend-crude-loadings-sources
Morning All - A new month and all is quiet in the Savannah front.
https://www.eyeradio.org/crude-oil-set-for-smooth-flow-as-pipelines-under-repair-amour/
Https://apnews.com/article/south-sudan-crisis-oil-red-sea-f8954810435083ade292f79ac08a7638
Sail - this article says it’s $23 dollars per barrel
Https://sudantribune.com/article41044/
Makes one wonder - would it be cheaper to truck the oil east to the coast then send it the long way around Africa to avoid the Red sea troubles??
I personally feel that both waring Sudanese parties need the pipeline revenues so they have already started to fix the oil pipeline infrastructure
https://twitter.com/RSFSudan/status/1761375911830503789
... an alternative oil evacuation route.
https://sudantribune.com/article282734/
Tier - SS Government is in a dire financial situation so unless so dodgy transaction occurs there is slim chance of them purchasing the acquisition themselves.
A few articles below to stew on until savannah is able to pull the finger out and provide updates
https://sudantribune.com/article282734/
https://apnews.com/article/south-sudan-crisis-oil-red-sea-f8954810435083ade292f79ac08a7638
Morning Savers. I certainly hope so. It’s unthinkable if SS at this stage still doesn’t want to sale to go though. Do they still want to buy the assets themselves?