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I have a huge amount of time for AK.. and have no doubt he has and continues to put his heart and soul into making Save.l a very successful company.
Him owning a bunch of shares here, is very helpful in that regard, I have no doubt.
Trying to do business in Africa is more and more of a nightmare for Western companies though.. and good or bad luck is a huge determinant of progression, alongside - AK's - very hard work.... Alas, I believe he has been unlucky a lot in the last couple of years. Very hopefully meaningful good luck comes to AK/us in sundry things save.l very soon.. because we need it.
Rocky - Brilliant articulated and I for one believe, things may be starting to turn in our favour especially with Niger likely to come into play and potential for accugas cpf completion with material increase in Gas contracts, I maintain my stance that I can see accugas being a $1 billion revenue generating business as a standalone asset.
I for one am fully on board for further extensions as it gives time for the business to progress things and increases a likelihood of the company returning to the market with a material deal.
A further extension from 2nd April to for example 30th June wouldn't be such a bad outcome as during the next extension period we can get Q1 2024 update and potentially fully year 2023 results, that will help the mindsets of many on here.
I believe the frustration stems from lack of an operational update as supposed to deal related but that should land within the next few weeks i.e Q1 2024 update by mid April, if the company sticks to it's usual reporting schedule.
There is nothing I can find in the public domain about the request from Savannah or the decision of the ICCI. The last thing we saw was Savannah winning an injunction to prevent the monies from the oil being used by COTCO. That injunction is under appeal but has not progressed since last September. Therefore, to me, this suggests Savannah were asking for those monies to be transferred to them pending the aribtration decision. Not that surprising then that the ICCI rejected this and so we would just be in the same position as previously where all monies are effect in limbo. Could be wrong but that's the logical conclusion from the currently known published documents.
Thanks for the post, komakino. So this decision appears to be "no one gets paid until I say so". I imagine it was a long-shot request anyway.
RR, it may be that Savannah has been advised that public disclosure of status on various aspects of the arbitration may weaken our case and/or breach contractual confidentialities. I agree it's frustrating to have no information, though.
Kinkell's post from the other place sums things up well.
Nothing lasts forever, including Savannah news blackouts and share suspensions.
A very knowledgeable and well articulated post:-
My understanding is that AK was a multi millionaire prior to founding Save at age32, presumably from having been a very skilful investor in the o&g sector. He has invested his own funds heavily in the company. These are the attributes as investors we seek in our entrepreneurs. The company was established to take advantage of the unique oppotunities thoughtto be arising in Africa, an area well known for political risks.
He subsequently acquired a very impressive oil licence in Niger on what appears to be favourable terms which has subseqently yielded five out of five discoveries and has the potential to be enormously rewarding, particularly with the pipeline to the coast now in operation.
Despite wide initial scepticism the Accugas acquisition was acquired imo very skilfully and has proved extremely successful.
The transactions in Chad and SS both appeared to offer very rewarding opportunities and SS may still prove to be just that. They also appeared to offer superb opportunities to both countries in terms of further investment, management and diversification into employment in green energy. It seems astonishing that both regimes are/were not falling over themselves to grasp the opportunities on offer for their economies.
As far as I can see AK is very risk averse in the way that he structures the deals, minimising company cash and placing emphasis in deploying vendors' funds and risks.
While the delays are frustrating, the fact is that while the shares are suspended there is not much point in putting management time and costs into providing information to holders while they are unable to transact.
Although the outcome of the Chad venture remains uncertain there is the prospect of a substantial court award in due course.
I really cannot see the justification for the criticism of management. Agree that the SP has not made progress so far, indeed the opposite, but then progress of the business is a different matter. AK has suffered the setbacks as a shreholder like the rest of us and we should all have been aware of the risks that were involved by investing in Africa. So if we take risks we must accept the disappointments that may follow.
In my view the company has suffered a degree of bad luck but there is hope that the future will bring more favouable outcomes with potentially disproportionate rewards.
w
We were told we had bought the asset.
And while the ICC cases are going on, surely we should be informed as to where the revenues are going to.
I get extremely frustrated when we are told that anything material will still be RNS’d while we are suspended but how many material events have happened since suspension? And how many RNS’s have been issued?
Shouldn’t this be rns’ed? So we lost? I’d say our request is extremely fair and we’ve lost? Isn’t that the New York courted ruled in our favour that the bank is freezing the fund?
Https://www.kapwing.com/65f0a60c5930677926614b1d/studio/editor/subtitles
Not sure if the link will work (it's a transalation of a Facebook video by the Chad Ministry of Hydrocarbons using kapwing)
Original post in French is here: https://www.facebook.com/MHETCHAD/videos/420477903994368/
Essentially it seems that Savannah requested the arbitration to allow Savannah to secure the oil revenues whilst the arbitration ruling is decided and the arbitration has denied the request.
Senegal looking for farm-in partners could we go for some acreage in Senegal likely more a development asset rather than production
https://energycapitalpower.com/senegals-petrosen-seeks-farm-partners/
We did sign a MOU last July - https://twitter.com/Groupe_PETROSEN/status/1678375382519631873
Also able to track historical production numbers without speculating.
http://mop.gov.ss/monthly-prod
'today' date - should read 11/3/24
Niger/Sinopec -
What now for Sinopecs hopes to enter Niger given the apparent decsion to award them to their state oil company. This is adjacent to both Save and CNPC blocks.
5/6/23
'China's state-run oil major Sinopec has set it sights on the western African country, where it is poised to become the second largest Chinese firm operating there behind China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC), an old hand in Niger.
Africa Intelligence understands that Sinopec wants to take over three areas in the region of Agadem which were handed back to the Nigerien authorities by CNPC. These areas, known as R5, R6 and R7, contain proven reserves.... '
Today 11/3/23
'General Tchiani's government intends to develop the blocks where discoveries have already been made by the Chinese oil giant. The awarding of the Bilma block to SONIDEP presents Niger's state-owned company with a huge challenge....'
Good to see we can now track latest production data from the ministry itself.
http://mop.gov.ss/monthly-prod
Zengas - I for one would imagine a lot of it will depend on the balance of payment left on the deal some people have said that the economic interest date on the deal goes all the way back to Jan 2022. So I would imagine with the continued production we have had over the period that the amount left to pay would be on the lower end.
Personally I think everything hinges on approvals and I personally feel with every passing month the risk has been financial risk of this deal has been lowered more in our favour so would be shame to can it without another substantial acquisition / deal
I wonder if AK is still in SS pushing for the approvals clearly they seem to be the biggest workstream / stumbling block towards us completing, can we still come back to the market and issue an admission document without approvals who knows..........................
From a former South Sudan oil minister who puts Sudans losses at approx $192m/month if the oil is not kept running.
' As a former Minister of Petroleum, let me attempt to shade light on the benefits for Sudan from the oil of South Sudan:
A. The production of DPOC, GPOC, and SPOC used to be 210,000 barrels per a day (2016 to 2019) but it has now decreased to 170, 000 barrels per day as per the latest statistics by the Ministry of Petroleum.
With the $25 (fees) per barrel going to Sudan multiplify by 170,000 barrels per day and a month. Sudan is getting roughly about $127 million USD a month.
B. The 28,000 barrels a day being refined at Khartoum Refinery at Al-jaili, and with it came along, petroleum products are being consumed and used by Sudan. South Sudan gets the normal price of their crude oil barrels of 840,000 a month, which is roughly about 65 million USD a month.
C. The Central Processing Facility at Al-Jabalain and Heglig processing facility
The South Sudan Oil in DPOC and GPOC is being operated by Sudanese, and they are making a living there
D. The marine terminal at Port Sudan where Oil is being shipped to the international markets the workers there (truck drivers, storage facilities, chemicals being brought via Port Sudan, and many logistical operations) are being handled by Sudanese and they are making a living there.
This really needs only mathematics to know the profits of Sudan. With the listed profits above the two Leaders Gen. Burhan and Gen. Hemetti should protect the pipelines and the facilities at all costs.
Yes, South Sudan is benefiting a lot from the oil. The budget of South Sudan is being run and financed by oil. So the biggest loser is South Sudan, and that is the reason for my appeal to our brothers in Sudan.
This oil is our “Food Union” where all of us (South Sudanese and Sudanese) are benefiting.
This “Food Union” shutdown can be a loss not only to South Sudan and Sudan but also our International Oil Partners like CNPC of China, PETEONAS of Malaysia, and ONGC of India.
I know some South Sudanese will ask me why you never built an alternative pipeline as South Sudan? The answer is our pipeline will also either go through Kenya or Ethiopia and Djibouti. We will also have to manage relations there. '
https://blnews.net/2024/01/threats-of-shutting-down-south-sudan-oil-by-sudan/
That's been discussed since 27th Feb here
"F/book 1 hour ago reporting on an interview with the minister of information saying the 23-24 budget will not be met as oil production reduced, gelling in 2 pipeline stations and difficulty getting oil out from port sudan due to the attacks on shipping in the red sea."
and in the same post
' this article on the challenges for S.Sudan via the red sea/houthi attcks on shipping.
https://bnnbreaking.com/world/yemen/south-sudan-oil-exports-hit-by-yemeni-houthi-attacks-amid-sudan-conflict '
hence the discussion on 1/3/24 and 1/5/23 re ring fenced financing and risk
As for what's AK doing - I'm sure that has been considered and it's been more than a month since these issues initially started.
"Can any deal be structured in a way that Save can continue say if oil exports were offline for 3-6-12 months at any point ? and it might not happen - totally unknown but i'm sure that risk has been considered. "
The pipeline leak was fixed........
https://www.southsudanminingjournal.co/en/post/bashayer-pipeline-company-resolves-khartoum-oil-pipeline-rapture/574
The Article seems to suggest lower throughput through the pipeline in February 79,000 and some liftings deferred from port sudan, seems to me the pipeline is still operational albeit lower volumes and red sea export issues making it difficult to export oil out.
If we they are producing and selling less, would we be paying less for the asset ?
CYB - well, in Africa he knows the threats of Wars, Coups, Nationalisations and violent FX swings as well as the best of us. I just hope he is growing our underlying businesses well enough to counteract all the issues he has and that we come back a stronger company then pre-suspension whenever we re-emerge to trading.
Poor old Knottie is going to start to wonder which way is up. Morning, all.
https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/022924-force-majeure-declared-on-south-sudans-dar-blend-crude-loadings-sources
The worst of Naira is definitely over so let’s see some appreciation filter through over the next few months
https://www.legit.ng/business-economy/money/1582783-respect-bank-predicts-exchange-rate-naira-dollar/
I firmly believe that transcorp power listing alongside the executive orders by Tobin have been timed to drive sentiment and investment in the energy sector and it will prove the catalyst for growth
I am extremely bullish on Nigeria power suppliers and associated gas suppliers. For context transcorp listed on Nigerian stock exchange this week and closed Friday at 2.635 trillion naira market cap or $1.65 billion usd circa. We supply gas to transafam power so great to see such strong opening on the listing for transcorp. Plenty of scale on accugas to come especially with CPF completion shortly.
With the recent directive by the president to promote oil and gas investments I see double digit growth in accugas for the foreseeable future and hence I maintain that accugas will be a $1bn dollar revenue generating business as standalone
https://nairametrics.com/2024/03/09/transcorp-power-gains-n835-billion-to-top-weekly-gainers/?amp=1
https://transcorpgroup.com/
Rocky all of this policy reform will help sure up the naira and help it appreciate as the dollar flow increases into country unlocking projects
https://www.vanguardngr.com/2024/03/why-tinubu-signed-executive-orders-on-oil-and-gas-aide/amp/
https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2024/03/09/fg-tinubu-determined-to-reverse-underinvestment-in-oil-gas-sector
https://www.ripplesnigeria.com/nigeria-aims-big-for-gas-sector-with-575bn-investment-push/?amp
https://businessday.ng/energy/article/fg-eyes-iocs-investment-to-boost-energy-sector-growth/?amp=1
https://punchng.com/fg-inaugurates-council-to-attract-575bn-gas-investments/?amp