Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Lazarus
Thanks for your reassuring words-frustration is frequently a catalyst to less than optimistic pronouncements!! Your good wishes are reciprocated.
I am as frustrated as yourself Warthog, believe me. I have been in Sareum for over 10 years and my friends and family glaze over when I talk of its obvious potential. As Ahfam states though, we are very close to news, which, we all hope will be life changing on so many different levels and to so many investors and patients alike. I try to put myself in Tims position and to understand why we are almost constantly on radio silence. Even failed deals are subject to NDA so, often, we would not know if we have been in talks or have been spurned due to a high asking price.
Change is coming though and I personally find it inconceivable that all of our compounds would fail to add significant value to the sp.
Yet more patience required for now... easier said than done but if you have come this far on the journey then a few weeks of market manipulation and wombles will be worth it. I hope you keep the faith and wish you well.
Warthog, we've been highly frustrated for the past decade but we are finally about to have all our dreams come true as we know for certain that 1801 will be taken into clinic one way or another and that is a massive milestone for a 100% molecule. All this price movement is short-term noise and you know very well as we all do that once the CTA drops 3p will be gone.
Points well taken Lazarus, especially on the 737 debacle, and the machinations surrounding deal making. However the latter are beginning to wear a bit thin and contribute mightily to the now high levels of frustration which must be affecting all LTH's.
Hi Warthog - understand your logic but I must point out that you are not the messenger. You are the hypothesiser. Big difference.
True value will eventually be established irrespective of mm activity or any of our predictions. Personally, I am anticipating a buy out which will be its true negotiated value per share. But I have no specific knowledge.
We have already flogged to death the reasons why the BoD have no voice in respect of SRA737. As I posted yesterday, we either understand the current restrictions and constraints placed on our BoD or we believe there is an anti Sareum conspiracy. It is frustrating but a necessary condition of making deals I am afraid. Surely you can see that.
Charlie will be along soon to join all the other miseries who have noticed a bit of red.
W4 - completely agree. A 50% slide requires a 100% increase in SP
It’s also why the difference between 1.5p and 3p/6p/8p etc is so important, to 10 bag from 1.5p on a Tyk2 deal would be great. To 10 bag on a Tyk2 deal, from 8p after decent SRA737 news would be life changing to the majority on here
Great post RMM.
Unfortunately as time slips by with no pronouncements from the BoD so does the share price. Accordingly if any significant percentage rise happens on a much lower SP, if and when there is some positive news, the benefit will be hugely negated.
Assuming, for example, in the next 6 weeks the SP goes down say to 1.50, (last seen as recently as 19th March) heaven forbid, then even a 50% rise would bring us back only to 2.25.
Just saying-I hope sincerely I am way off the mark folks so please do not shoot the messenger!!
If by delist you mean suspension. I see this a distinct possibility, especially if any deal being worked on is less that some of the high valuations here. It would be irresponsible to let the market run riot and risk the sp climbing higher than the deal is worth. Having said that. I think £1.5 billion is fair for everyone. :-)
Some good points raised but we still need 1801 to hit MTD before anything can start to move forwards let’s hope the reformulation worked, interestingly Sar did say “the final date for the interim results will be confirmed in the coming weeks” which we haven’t had yet? Maybe they are waiting for the BMS data later this month? Just so many possible scenarios for what lies ahead they could even let us delist end of April until everything is in place unlikely but this is AIM after all.
Hi RMM - another great post, thank you.
According to the UKRI website, the timeline for the Covid study was December ' 20 - May 2021, so there are just over 6 weeks to go. Tim and John will by now have a very good idea of whether the data are indicating positive PoC, unless that it there has been any slippage. Your expectation therefore that June/July could be pivotal appears to be entirely realistic.
We are now halfway through April and the BoD have told us that there will be a trading update by the end of the month. Let’s start with Sierra. Last year they moved their Head Office, recruitment has been underway for some time, institutions hold the majority of shares and have invested large sums and in Stephen Dilly they have a credible operator. These are all signs that Sierra is not a short term investment. Furthermore they are not signs consistent with a one product pipeline pharma. He clearly has a strategy. What this strategy is depends on who you are. If you are an institution he’s probably let you in on his plans, under strict confidence etc. For the likes of ICR/SAR we remain a ‘supplier’ and will be told of developments as and when appropriate. I suspect that we will know more by the end of April. In the meantime the SAR BoD have plenty to be getting on with. We are now just over halfway through PoC on 1801 for Covid. I doubt very much that they have enough data to make a statement but what they do have is probably shaping their thoughts. If the data is looking good then I’d be re-thinking my strategy for getting 1801 and 1802 into the clinic for immune/cancer. Currently SAR does not have the money to get one let alone both into the clinic but I don’t believe that is the key issue. I suspect that money is available but there’s a very big issue hanging in the balance. If 1801 looks good for Covid then funding and timelines change dramatically as does the value of the company. In this position I would ideally postpone any trading statement until the 1801 Covid PoC is resolved. However, they can’t do this. My expectation is that the update we will get at the end of the month will be highly dependent on what happens over the next two weeks. Sierra milestones would be useful cashflow but the main impact will be on the SP. How they go about raising the money for putting 1801 into the clinic will be indicative of how confident they are that 1801 will prove effective against Covid and the fast track that could follow. Furthermore I don’t rule out an institution putting in the money. With the Covid global fallout getting worse by the day (side effects, political posturing, media propagated misinformation, manufacturing bottlenecks, new variants etc etc) there isn’t a single pharma out there that is probably having to change its plans on a weekly basis. For our two executive directors that’s a real problem in terms of the day to day tasks and the longer term strategy. I’m expecting an update but it will have to be heavily caveated until there’s some certainty around 1801 PoC and Covid. Should 1801 not prove effective against Covid the only thing that changes is the timescale for getting it into the clinic. April will be important but June/July could be pivotal. In the overall scheme of things that’s not long to wait. GLA