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Started: Alnwick, 11 Jun 2024 13:22
Last post: Roguemale1, 11 Jun 2024 16:26
Ha. He had a very special white 928...
We always do mate! no 29.
Hi Rogue. ( I’ve not said that in business for a while !)
I’ve been to Le Mans many times and driven what becomes the race track a few times too.
I bought a car from Derek Bell ( 5 times winner!)
He has some good stories.
Have a fun week.
Cheers 🍻
Thanks for the detail guys...roll on the 25th.
Alnwick, with your garage you should be here at Le Mans!?
I would add that their previous TUs for the AGM are generally more detailed than many other companies offer at that time.
Also, if they don't issue an update by RNS prior to the AGM then they cannot discuss anything material that is not already in the public domain during the event. The Q&A session is generally more to clarify any points that are raised about things in the accounts, or corporate governance, forward guidance, etc.
They wouldn't include an announcement in the AGM agenda, but if you look at previous years they have always issued a fairly well detailed Trading Update at 7am in the morning of that day. I fully expect to see the same again this year, particularly with the new CEO as Alnwick points out.
Last post: Corryvreckan1, 11 Jun 2024 10:54
These are fairly standard resolutions in company AGMs, but need above 75% to pass rather than the usual 50%.
18 and 19 allow the company to allot new shares to raise funds direct from institutions or other third parties without also offering the new shares to existing shareholders (you have a pre-emptive right as a shareholder to be treated the same for any new offers, these resolutions remove that right temporarily). There are good arguments both for and against this happening.
Res. 20 is to allow the company to purchase their own shares in the market place, e.g. a share buy-back you will maybe have seen many other companies doing recently, if they ever had sufficient cash to do so etc...
They are on the AGM list every year and get passed every year, and the same applies to hundreds of other listed companies with very similar worded resolutions every year, so I wouldn't worry too much about them. If you are curious though it may be worth looking into the reasons for and against the pre-emptive ones, it's an interesting part of market dynamics for geeks like me ;o)
Does anybody understand the Special Resolutions proposed for the AGM and the significance for us?
Thanks Rupans
FT had the change in broker forecast in their data.
Rupans where did you see the downgrade by Peel Hunt?
The reason for the drop is Peel Hunt reduced the target price from 145p to 130p.
Not sure why ...
Nice little buying opportunity for a Friday :)
Started: unhooked, 7 Jun 2024 17:11
Last post: Roguemale1, 8 Jun 2024 11:59
£344.8m goodwill remains. P7 2024 report and accounts.
Of course they may not further reduce it, but there is a lot of use of the phrase "underlying profits..."
Interesting discussion. Honestly, for me the price s/be around the £1.80 - £2.00 mark, and that's taking into account the debt, the insurance travails and general sentiment.
Thanks Roguemale1,
I'm not banking on a dividend this year, although it would be nice. I know the insurance issues are only going to roll off properly next year, so my rampant optimism is on a 3 to 5 year time horizon.
I'm keen to understand more about the goodwill point though, I thought we were out of the woods on that front, given the recent £104m writedown. Am I mistaken?
Ppwygda.
It's great that you're positive on the stock but you haven't swotted up some of the detail. They cant pay a dividend until they have got back to a straight line on the ship loans following Covid deferment. And that is taking longer due to the issues in insurance. And also, as I previously pointed out to you, the goodwill issue will ensure no profit for a while in the view of most long termers on here. So that is why we hope for a deal on the ships or a sale of the underwriting business at a decent price. Rupans, help me out mate on where to find the divi deferment-am at Le Mans and its hazy already!!
Yes it is frustrating, but understandable given its multiple woes over the course of the last 7 years, its debt, and its rather nuanced recovery story.
If and when there is some news about the partnership deal, and then eventually a dividend declared, then we'll see some actual momentum. Until then, patience is key!
Started: Alnwick, 7 Jun 2024 11:40
Last post: Slownsteady, 7 Jun 2024 14:05
I wouldn't spend too much time thinking of him. He's a small time NRI (Non Resident Ind.ian) in that neck of the woods, whose leveraged stake has probably wiped him out. Move on.
I’ve been trying to find out info on Mr Babu and it’s very difficult as the Emirates don’t divulge personal info.
However a search on a Bloomberg Terminal has been useful in finding his Cost.
We know as of last week he had 11,500,001 shares which equates to 8.02%
Bloomberg states his cost on these to be
20,050,000 and I’m presuming that’s Sterling.
Therefore Mr Babu’s average cost per share is £1-82
He’s therefore been a shareholder for sometime.
He’s underwater by £6,000,000 !!
I hope he’s still Pound cost averaging…..
Happy Weekend
Last post: accipiter, 5 Jun 2024 19:48
Mr Babu is not in it for the dividend, so what is he after? A rise in the SP? Unlikely if he's done the homework and discovered what most on this board know already. Saga is a dog that needs putting out of its misery. Now if he was to float (no pun intended) the idea of ships based in the Middle East with sun & sand resorts together with all included fun for the over 50s it might result in higher prices and increased profits. He would for sure throw insurance overboard and there might be a resounding "Yes" from long suffering "shareholders" who currently share in sweet FA.
Has Babu cut his losses on RBG then?
It might still recover, he might be the recovery play master!
Yes he did
Didn't he lose a lot of money by investing in revolution bar group?
Ppywgda,
not much more info apart from he is MD at Euro Emirates Group. Unless you want to decifer his linkedIn in arabic!!!
Thanks @rupans
Where can I find more info about Mr Babu? Is he the MD at Euro Emirates Group?
Ppywda,
Eldose is a Dubai investor he has investments in other areas. He is not Roger. Roger owns just under 30%, Eldose now owns 8%. Good to see Eldose is soaking up free float ....
You are right about the insurance biz the 3 year fixed issue of it being underpriced should be flushed out in a year. However we will see how profitable it is next year as this year they are trying to pick up market share.
This SP should go up steadily now if Eldose is back in the buying mood and explains the recent increase in price ....
Carnival upgraded to a Buy !
Peel Hunt noted that Carnival had received a financial boost from the increase in popularity of cruising as a holiday choice and had benefited, too, from its competitive pricing. As a result, the broker upgraded its rating of the company to “buy” from “add”. It has a commanding position as a market leader and Peel Hunt thinks investments by the business will allow it to expand in new destinations, such as the Caribbean.
The Carnival at SAGA is coming !!
Last post: rupans, 28 May 2024 10:38
No deal over the weekend but interesting rise today - but we have been here before
I'd hate to see normal speed then!! :)
In the latest update they mentioned they would accelerate it.
" I am excited about the potential that partnerships present for Saga and, as a result, we are accelerating the work we are doing to explore such opportunities across both our Ocean Cruise and Insurance businesses."
Rupans
If this goes to 3 quid anytime soon it'll be bubbles! But yeah absolutely.
Too many others need top ups before they go...
I think they would have to announce what the deal is and the seek shareholder approval before going ahead. Wouldn’t they?
Started: jedclampit, 22 May 2024 13:53
Last post: jedclampit, 22 May 2024 13:53
Goodness a big drop today, no idea why
Started: Alnwick, 21 May 2024 13:35
Last post: Alnwick, 21 May 2024 13:35
Norwegian Cruise lines which includes Regent lifted guidance.
Something similar after SAGA’s AGM. would be good !
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) shares sailed 7.6% higher, marking Monday's top performance among S&P 500 stocks. The company lifted its full-year profit guidance, highlighting strong demand. Norwegian also introduced a new strategy aimed at enhancing its position as a market leader in vacation experiences, on land as well as at sea. The positive outlook also helped buoy other cruise operators' stocks—shares of Carnival Corp. (CCL) and Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) were up 7.2% and 4.1%,
Started: Alnwick, 13 May 2024 11:40
Last post: rupans, 14 May 2024 14:24
I think you are right there must be a deal or maybe Eldose is buying again from the share price movements.
Topped up today
I dont think the deal is over. These things take time and there would be an RNS is is was deal was dead in the water
Good News that the Bond has been repaid.
However it would have been nice to learn how much of RDH £85M was used and what facilities remain !
I’m sure the negotiations with AGEAS will be ongoing.
Started: HOMER1234, 13 May 2024 13:46
Last post: gulfharbour, 13 May 2024 17:07
Also Homer, this would be a sale and leaseback arrangement.
SAGA are not just selling the ships and getting rid of the cruise income which is the most profitable part of the business.
Surprised by those comments Homer it's no secret that there has been lots of
Interest in the ships. Not sure if we want to get rid though. More likely we will refinance them unless we do some sort of a partnership deal with one of the interested parties. We will know soon.
Saga has two nice ships. But I don't see anybody buying them.
It's a niche product and it just doesn't fit it into the strategy of many cruise lines.
I would keep them as it's a decent revenue stream.
Started: Alnwick, 8 May 2024 15:01
Last post: rupans, 13 May 2024 10:19
So agreed looks like they have repaid the bond using rogers loan, which is not ideal. Was hoping for sale and leaseback deal but heyho
As the deadline for offers on the lease and lease back has long since passed, and no news has been forthcoming one sadly must assume that they couldn’t get anything worthwhile. Very disappointing if true. I hope the management is actively pursuing options and not simply collecting their money for sitting on their hands.
All of this will mean nothing if they can manage to flog a part of their cruise line, will settle all their debt worries and some.
Deutsche Numis came out with a number of Upgrades and Buy recommendations yesterday and SAGA was one of them.
Its really a reiteration of the Numis Buy from last year at 154P
Another of their Buy recommendations that caught my eye was CAPITA.
If you think SAGA is a recovery play take a look at CAPITA
It's been a disaster but they have a new CEO with a strong IT background.
I added it my Portfolio a few weeks ago as its a play on AI.
Deutsche think its a Buy with a 250% upside at 35p !
I hope they're right.
DYOR
Started: longtimeinvestor, 17 Apr 2024 12:41
Last post: Stevelondon222, 5 May 2024 05:53
Maybe the rumours of the Insurance buyout are helping the current upward trend
Tfe
I hope so in the long run, but this top up was a lot higher than that made on
3rd Oct 2022 (about 82p)
Has come down a lot since my over £4 sale on 12th May 2021.
Just a shame I didn't sell a lot more then. I also started buying back too soon from that sale. I need a decent rise from the current level to get back on track.
This is currently a laggard in my portfolio alongside Marstons.
Good top-up price last week Lti, I was tempted but resisted, happy with my current position here.
At under 106p
Started: Alnwick, 2 May 2024 16:28
Last post: Roguemale1, 4 May 2024 12:04
Hi Alnwick,
Hola from SCL.
That was RNS 15/1/24-no change since then I think?
GL
Thank you Alnwick.
Hi Batfasted,
Eldose had 8,683,085 SAGA shares a few months ago. He now has 10,000,000.
Artemis have also added to their position.
Best Wishes
Hi Alnwick. What makes you think this man is buying?
Looks like Eldose Babu from Dubai is still buying.
Eldose is now SAGA's 2nd largest shareholder with 10,000,000 7.052%
Rupans, yeah I get the logic for sure. Let's hope we get some news soon. I have a couple of things that need a big top up sooner rather than later.
What about ship refits? Cruise division is the only part doing really well.
Still feel someone will buy Saga. Just need to get a crazy CEO like the one at Nationwide who wants to buy Virgin banking. Let's make a great company overnight a second rate outfit.
Rogue, so i think the recent appreciation in build cost has cancelled out some or all of the depreciation. so a sale of i estimate £600 to £700 million for both ships would wipe out the debt. Even if they leased out the ships at £60 million per year then with an EBITDA of £90 million for both ships would leave a profit of £30 million .... just for ocean cruise ...
Rupans, yes. Agreed. If it was gone then a profit is a profit...but then there's depreciation, or is the view now that bearing in mind demand for ships its appreciation?
Started: longtimeinvestor, 1 May 2024 15:53
Last post: longtimeinvestor, 1 May 2024 18:57
Trading under way - market cap 11.5 Billion dollars.
Flotation today in the US with a targeted valuation of 11 Billion dollars.
SAGA market cap £156 million
Started: Alnwick, 29 Apr 2024 19:46
Last post: brucemaverick, 1 May 2024 16:30
I ordered a new boat in the pandemic times for 1.2m. The same boat to build these days is 2m! On this basis the value of the cruise ships are significantly under valued at 1b!
I don’t think SAGA will sell the Cruise Ships as they now make most of the Profits !
These ships are worth £1B in todays market.
SAGA Net Debt at year end was £637M
As interest rates fall and profits rise the debt will be paid down and refinanced.
I think the smart play is to sell the Insurance business and the new relationship with Ageas suggests that may happen. Ageas recently bid for Direct Line.
It’s difficult to determine the value of the Insurance business but Ageas have a great insider view and a relationship.
The current Market Cap of SAGA at £155M is
Crazy Cheap !!!!
A Sale of the Insurance business could potentially wipe out the debt and leave a Cruise and Travel Business making close to £100M.
Apply a very conservative multiple of 6 times profits and you see the Value upside
Then SAGA will be Sailing !!
Cheers Z puts the company value into perspective!!!!
This is a ship which is currently being built at the same dockyard, note it is slightly smaller and will cost $625m.
https://www.cruisemapper.com/ships/Asuka-3-2247
Alnwick,
thanks for that so the question what is the current build cost for a 1000 passenger cruise ship of similar quality ...
Started: Perturbed, 30 Apr 2024 11:32
Last post: HOMER1234, 30 Apr 2024 18:55
Company is not run for the shareholders. So many dilutions. Shares given out to employees. Awful investment.
I suppose it is fine to give employees the incentive of another 1% of our remaining wealth since the Company has done so well for its shareholders. I hope they have not lowered the £6 trigger for the incentive plan.
Just the annual free shares for employees, so no news really…..albeit annoying to existing shareholders
“Saga plc has issued 1,565,919 new ordinary shares of 15 pence each in the Company for transfer into an employee benefit trust to satisfy employee incentive arrangements. The newly issued shares will rank pari passu with existing Saga shares”
Is this bad news?
Started: Alnwick, 25 Apr 2024 13:44
Last post: zccax77, 25 Apr 2024 19:40
I can understand them having relatively high prices, but at the end of the day they are not making outsized profits. A profit of £35m from two ships might even be considered on the low side based on how risky the business is from world events.
£368 is the average per diem per passenger. The basic cabin is now about £700 a night for a couple, single cabins are about 80% of the double cabin price. The discounted suite prices are £1,200 to £1,400 per night. Undiscounted prices are considerably higher. The ocean cruise prices have been hiked quite considerably post pandemic. But I suppose the likes of Mr Motivator, has been TV ‘celeb’ guest speakers, and the onboard ‘Cruise Radio’ bods etc don’t come cheap.
I am only 42 pal, not their target market.
Lol comparing Saga to Silversea. Like comparing a Fiat to a Ferrari. Take it you have not been on Silversea.
At £368 a night they are far too cheap, should be £500+ like Silversea cruises.
Started: Alnwick, 25 Apr 2024 18:29
Last post: Alnwick, 25 Apr 2024 18:29
HOMER1234
Interesting comparison FIAT to FERRARI !
I own a few FERRARI’s and they used to be part of FIAT
and the older ones look great but drive like a FIAT
only a little faster !!
Our go to Cruise lines are REGENT and SEABOURN and most of the British passengers we meet who have been on SAGA rate them as a 5 Star Cruise.
The only reason we don’t use SAGA is the fact that they only sail from the South Coast and we live in Northumberland. That’s a long drive in a FERRARI !!!!
Started: zccax77, 22 Apr 2024 19:03
Last post: zccax77, 24 Apr 2024 10:00
They are very similarly priced. Their ships are also a very similar size.
I can’t help think that Saga’s ocean and river cruise division would be very tempting for Viking if it has the funding to expand.
I doubt they would in 2023. I wonder what price they will ipo at? Hopefully the saga bod will take notice and make sure we get a fair deal with doing whatever they are planning on doing with regards to the partnership.
I wonder what Vikings massive "one-off " costs were that created the huge loss? Maybe they also wrote down some goodwill? LOL.
This is a good point currently cruise and travel has no goodwill on the books. So we need some kind of deal/partnership here to propel the SP much higher
Started: Alnwick, 17 Apr 2024 13:23
Last post: accipiter, 22 Apr 2024 16:49
Thanks Alnwick. I hope your positivity bears fruit soon. Some large buys today might suggest some good news is near.
Hi Accipiter, I share your view on SAGA being a sitting duck and it will be on the Radar of PE too.
The interest from the Prospective buyer at around 265P was before RDH invested.
I think it's more likely that AGEAS will acquire the Insurance business and SAGA will then concentrate on Cruise and Travel to become the over 60's luxury brand in Europe.
They already have another 3 River ships in construction and are expanding the travel business with Private Jet Tours and Longer escorted tours which are very profitable and selling well.
The days of SAGA Insurance making 100M+ appear to be Gone !
Hi Rogue
The highly conditional offer was at 33p in old money. This was before the rights issue and consolidation. So the offer price would have been 265 based on the number of shares now in issue .
And to be fair anyone wanting to cut their losses at 220 could have then exited at anywhere between 300 and 440 over a good few weeks no? We're here, or back here, because it will happen again at some point by some means ...
He had an indicative offer of about 220, but that wasn't a firm offer. It was an invite to open the books. It wouldn't have ended up as 220 if the prospective buyer had anything about him IMHO.
Started: Roguemale1, 20 Apr 2024 12:52
Last post: zccax77, 20 Apr 2024 13:08
Goodwill can only be written off but not reinstated under IFRS, for internally generated goodwill. What about goodwill on their home and pmi business?
I think worth looking at the history here....
After it went public 2014 the goodwill was sat on the sheet at a whopping 1.6bn. The piggy had truly been fattened for market huh? It then dropped to 1.47 the following year and then stabilised around there until 2019. It dropped then to 1.17resulting in an overall loss, and has continued dropping ever since (save 2022) with the same result. The goodwill allocated to cruise was zeroed in COVID 2021, so what's left (344m) is now only insurance. Insurance's numbers have obviously dropped but not by that %age. Presumably on that basis, they will shed some more this year.