I agree, each recession is a little different driven by various factors. What is clear is that oil has always retreated from my analysis. Demand goes down as people cut back usage during recessions - this one is no different e.g. driving / travelling less as one example.
I think we cannot kid ourselves, a recession is definite in the UK and elsewhere more broadly in my view and a long one at that for the UK. But it won't impact everyone.
That's all very well, but when there is a settlement on Russia / Ukraine crisis at the same time as we enter a year-long recession (soft or otherwise), the oil price will drop off a cliff. Just look at what has happened with the oil price during the last recessions. I can see this retreating to c.US$50 per barrel / equivalent. So, I can see the SP retreating here too and potentially quite substantially to the teens. I cannot see Serenity success (if this were to happen) making that much difference in the SP once it has sunk, it may bring it back a little, but not to the levels I think we would all like to see i.e. 30/40s. I am going to be cautious and top-slice (as you should) when we spud but before the recession figs start getting priced in. All of this is just in my opinion.
RE: A difficult one to trade . . . and to hold03 Aug 2022 18:35
For me, I would rather wait and see what the audit looks like first before putting any money into this. Too much of the unknown for me, I would rather wait for fundamentals and see what the risk is then.
The divi is paid every four weeks, not a set day in a calendar month (apart from June when it was 5 weeks). To me, this is normal and does not imply anything out of the ordinary or any further payout. Of course, it would be nice if this was the case, but lets not read too much into this atm.
Be careful here. This is not a great bargain. The price you see is the price it is worth right now...otherwise it would be higher. Catch a falling knife if you will. Plenty further to drop imo. I wouldn't be buying now. I would need to see clear evidence in fundamentals of turnaround strategy, key milestones, financials etc. Nothing to see atm imo.
How did you come to the conclusion that MHC are dragging their feet? Are you aware it takes ages to come up with these types of product and to then design/test/launch them to market. Your expectations are a bit too high imo. How do you actually know existing shareholders are not really being considered - have you read something I haven't or drawn this conclusion from specific comments made by the management, for example at the AGM? As for 'oomph;', where did you get the feeling there was 'oomph' in the first place, as I am not sure I have actually observed any imo?
Fundamentals have not changed. The market may be tricky atm, so it is important imo to not focus solely on the SP - this only matters when you actually want to buy or sell shares, it has no bearing if this is not your intention. So, best to ignore as it will only cause your stress levels to rise and fall regularly and for no reason.