Member Info for HotChip

I agree, each recession is a little different driven by various factors. What is clear is that oil has always retreated from my analysis. Demand goes down as people cut back usage during recessions - this one is no different e.g. driving / travelling less as one example.

I think we cannot kid ourselves, a recession is definite in the UK and elsewhere more broadly in my view and a long one at that for the UK. But it won't impact everyone.

DYOR

That's all very well, but when there is a settlement on Russia / Ukraine crisis at the same time as we enter a year-long recession (soft or otherwise), the oil price will drop off a cliff. Just look at what has happened with the oil price during the last recessions. I can see this retreating to c.US$50 per barrel / equivalent. So, I can see the SP retreating here too and potentially quite substantially to the teens. I cannot see Serenity success (if this were to happen) making that much difference in the SP once it has sunk, it may bring it back a little, but not to the levels I think we would all like to see i.e. 30/40s. I am going to be cautious and top-slice (as you should) when we spud but before the recession figs start getting priced in. All of this is just in my opinion.

DYOR

Pre-tax loss, wholesale revenue decline significantly lower than previous guidance. I cannot see this surviving and will likely be bought out imo.

DYOR

You should receive it today as it went ex-dividend on 14 July.

DYOR

For me, I would rather wait and see what the audit looks like first before putting any money into this. Too much of the unknown for me, I would rather wait for fundamentals and see what the risk is then.

DYOR

Why exactly? You are not making sense?

That's clearly an 'if serenity is hit'. If it isn't, I would expect a substantial hit to the SP.

DYOR

The divi is paid every four weeks, not a set day in a calendar month (apart from June when it was 5 weeks). To me, this is normal and does not imply anything out of the ordinary or any further payout. Of course, it would be nice if this was the case, but lets not read too much into this atm.

DYOR

I have an opinion, not an agenda. And you will also have one or the other too, otherwise you wouldn't be here. And there is nothing wrong with that, as its good to have a mix of good and bad :)

DYOR

Be careful here. This is not a great bargain. The price you see is the price it is worth right now...otherwise it would be higher. Catch a falling knife if you will. Plenty further to drop imo. I wouldn't be buying now. I would need to see clear evidence in fundamentals of turnaround strategy, key milestones, financials etc. Nothing to see atm imo.

DYOR

You shouldn't be seeking such advice here, this is not a tax service board. Suggest you go to a tax professional and receive correct and accurate advice.

DYOR

I don't think you should be giving investment advice here.

DYOR

How did you come to the conclusion that MHC are dragging their feet? Are you aware it takes ages to come up with these types of product and to then design/test/launch them to market. Your expectations are a bit too high imo. How do you actually know existing shareholders are not really being considered - have you read something I haven't or drawn this conclusion from specific comments made by the management, for example at the AGM? As for 'oomph;', where did you get the feeling there was 'oomph' in the first place, as I am not sure I have actually observed any imo?

DYOR

Fundamentals have not changed. The market may be tricky atm, so it is important imo to not focus solely on the SP - this only matters when you actually want to buy or sell shares, it has no bearing if this is not your intention. So, best to ignore as it will only cause your stress levels to rise and fall regularly and for no reason.

DYOR

SMTrading - you don't need antigen test for Spain if fully vaccinated, which most people are now. So, no need to purchase tests.

DYOR

Not really sure where you are going with this - sorry, what's your point?

How many are you personally looking to buy?

DYOR

I can't see Mercia upgrading their position. My feeling is they will exit from their position once the price has recovered enough.

DYOR

Great interview with Mo and Leo, with a clear indication of acquisitions / bolt-ons to come in the future:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g2WaGNlQ3lw&t=16s

I think you are wrong TSSZ. Mild recession and lower oil prices, not back to previous US$50 but half-way in between. Not a bad thing though, but higher prices are not sustainable imo.

DYOR