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A Short Account: By Helpful in reply of his recall of events at RRR 's history.
[1] Two types of RRR investor: SUPER CYCLE 2010-2012 & POST SUPER CYCLE 2018 [let's say]. RRR went from 0.25p to the equivalent of 40p [My Ref: Paul Johnson tweeted 0.25p to 23p, hence how I learnt of RRR History ]. ROTATION taking place from OVER-VALUED to UNDERVALUED. Those who continued to invest TOP OF MARKET should have been getting out, not in.
[2] POST 2018, largely MUSONI and onto JORC. Backdoor deal was $420m. RRR had 51%. Partner "stopped" [see detail].
[3] "The MODEL RRR & OTHER mineral co's used to follow BROKE DOWN IN 2012. The MODEL WAS TO RAISE MONEY, SPEND IT ON AN ASSET AND MOVE IT TO THE NEXT INFLECTION point and then SELL/JV at an uplift on what was spent on it. SINCE 2012, ==THE BUYERS HAVE NOT BEEN THERE. THAT LOOKS TO BE CHANGING.==
[4] RRR BILBALE -FCF pretty soon.
My Comment: There you are, FREE from Helpful. In the chap in the USA that LOST $45k and has to NOW STOP, one said to him, you should go to a advisor and INVEST, not "speculate" [para phrase]. An interesting account by every American commenting but their mkts are very different but same principle. TWO POINTS HERE: Helpful has CONFIRMED what I said about AIM is to RAISE CAPITAL [that is what is stated by the way on the LSE AIM site]. YES, many AIM junior explorers raise and went from 1 project to another. NOW, ALL LEGACY projects and some may revive to be sold or not now depends on the projects market. My observation: Even now, IF URANIUM IS HOT, AIM juniors will get into it & so forth. RRR is taking another PATH which is what MANY are doing ie SEEK PROJECTS WITH CASH FLOW. In general, IF , the sky blue eventuate, then good to go. By Sky Blue is take care so as NOT to give the idea that it is a riskless event. IT IS A GENERAL PRINCIPLE as laymen think its the NEXT ...unless one caveats with Sky Blue. There you have it. DL has re-tweeted a criticism and his answer is insightful. The account is FACTUAL and applied to many AIM junior explorers. PAUL JOHNSON POINTED OUT RRR AS A CO THAT RODE THE GOLD BOOM in 2010 so CYCLE & AIM JUNIOR EXPLORERS coincided & history now. CAVEAT: They say history does not repeat but it rhymes. How true that will be is left to be seen. Did anyone see the PROPERTY market in Oz. One chap on Twitter said his Dad who worked as a garbage collector bought 100 acres of land in Bryon Bay for A$18,000 now worth millions. Ah, that was insight that was at least 40 years ahead of the curve as Bryon Bay, Australia is THE premier spot now. Recently, First Quantum lost their Panama copper mine or it was taken. On the day the financials were released and within almost a few short hrs, they had to get an EMERGENCY sum of $500m from Jiangxi Copper & within the next 24 hrs raise $1.6bn in notes. I dont think I need to explain why. So, many may NOT be aware big co's operate on income and project finance are raised but they have to be paid ba
AIM juniors on the other hand, RAISE, BUY PROJECTS etc ie RAISE AND SPEND on projects. Yes, so, the situation has changed now and PROJECT/S NEED TO BE CASH GENERATIVE. Lots of press have now covered this ie about AIM and until one sees what is going to be done, one will have to wait. This applies to all AIM stocks and widely discussed.
DRC- There is a distinction between CLAIM which has to be SUPPORTED by a Investment Banker's Valuation via Expert Witness in any international arbitration. CLAIM does not mean payout will be the same and it is 101 known. IF FINANCED by private equity groups, then they take a cut if there is a win. Both sides will fight over the claim amount -see history of international arbitration 101 for education. Anyone remember Oxus Gold ie 2012 - a $400m claim. Remember Churchill Mining where the claim was for $2billion in UK & Australia but merged into 1 case seeking $1.3bn.
Meanwhile in the DRC, it now appears that AVZ 's licence is being JV'ed!!! This is while international arbitration is going into the final stage where both parties present with AVZ having won the interim ruling. So, going to be interesting to see how RRR will move forward once the AVZ lithium international arbitration moves into final ruling. To be JV @AVZ's licence does appear to suggest that it has been sold !!! [in part for the JV as norm?]. Sound like RRR's licence ie sold for $430m. I checked and in 2019, the JORC was being commissioned by RRR as they held 51% in Musoni, DRC.
News if any of it was worth anything we would have suitors everywhere. Its just hyperbole and rubbish put around by Helpful.
This is a man who predicted 1-5m tonnes from Tin Hill.
Faso in production last month that worked well. 1,100 tonnes throughput PER HOUR ( forget the theoretical capacity of the machine it's not relevant), $300 - $450 pef tonne cost, 5000 ounces net to RRR soon.
It's all dreams and nonsense. He could not hit a dartboard from a foot based on his track record.
Https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/312125/red-rock-resources-delighted-as-work-towards-jorc-resource-at-musonoi-mine-advances-12125.html
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/214006/red-rock-resources-completes-first-phase-of-work-at-musonoi-mine-214006.html
https://youtu.be/sN0qEQc-Epg?si=LqhShnXoBSV-GKHi
How anyone can say that RRR wasn't prioritising a JORC for Musonoi JV is beyond me.
DYOR
Banburyboy
I am afraid that the account HELPFUL gave of RRR is FACTUALLY correct of HISTORY MATCHED against events. Every CEO contacted personally is saying the same thing eg Kiran told a shareholder, THERE HAVE BEEN NO "EXCEPTIONS" to the commodity downturn of past years. DONT AGREE - that is fine but that is HISTORY OF CYCLES and it can be tested out via a CLASS ACTION claim for any AIM junior explorer. DL has also tweeted a criticism and everyone said it was open for all to see and his reply. His reply was he brings eyes to the co and thereafter it is the DECISION of everyone going forward what they do. YES, THAT IS FACT. Why? CAN ANYONE TELL AFTER TWO DRILLS in an Oz project that it will or WILL NOT produce a so so project or will it be Tier 1/2? Unless one is very seasoned in projects, then it could be hit or miss. That is now true largely for many projects in commodities.
-------------RRR FORWARD GUIDANCE?:-----------
CLARITY: ----NONE GIVEN ----and that is largely due to the new rules on Nomads etc. Has to be there have been complaints in general and therefore, the Big Cheeses say to Nomads maybe, you be the gate keeper of RNS's and make sure the mom's & pop's investors who dont understand project risk/s are NOT given any word that may or may not lead them to believe that this is the next ?
GOING FORWARD ON THIS RRR FORUM:
My observation of the AIM market in general and junior explorers in particular now matches to what is being done in co boardrooms, hence the RRR potential project to generate some early cash at BILBALE. Whether that WORKS out or not or re-adapted, one will have to wait to see. NO ONE CAN TELL if this or that happens as that is something that is not known in the short time frame as there is what is known as "execution risk" ie part 2 of the Lassonde Curve where production is planned. See Zulu project for example.
COMMODITY CYCLE MAY HAVE BEGUN?
To survive, AIM explorers have to ADADPT to the new capital markets and even then going forward what happens is not clear as it is a case by case situation. SUFFICE TO SAY, RRR IS STILL HERE AS AT SUN, 12.5.24 at a mkt cap of around £1.97m. Munger passed and his sayings have been repeated on Twitter and the one that caught my eye was: ONE GETS A FEW CHANCES IN LIFE @3-4 and one has to make use of them. LUXURIATE: IF ONE LIVES IN THE PAST OF RRR AND DOES NOT MOVE FORWARD, then this market may pass one by as I said to AIMDOGS.
THE FINAL TEST: THE MARKET IS THE FINAL ARBITER. Why? The capital market calls all the shots. So time will tell but at least one knows that some AIM juniors are now waking to the new reality ie the OLD MODEL is no longer at this moment ie raise capital for a new project and wait for it to be sold. Will the buyers come back? Helpful says there is a whiff of change and yes, here and there but rather spotty. For example? Paul's co has sold some projects to a private equity group consisting of father & son. This group was mainly in propert
Boring Boy tries so desperately to make he is some sort of expert but.... This what AIM says about itself.
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/raise-finance/equity/aim
"Contact our team to understand how to raise the finance through the AIM growth market"
Ie., not list and pay dividends to widows and orphans.
Years ago, over 20 years ago, we used to list deals where most of the money had been raised off market. Once the money had been raised we would list the company via an introduction and a small cash raise. AIM management got really upset because it meant that they couldn't take credit for the big raise. Eventually they put the kibosh on it. Not sure that you can even list via an introduction anymore.
DYOR
News this will sound harsh but your posts are full of the abstract and theoretical and absolutely devoid of any specific short term ( that word is important) company specifics.
A few to keep you busy
- appaling balance sheet debt £4m. Assets valued at cost not realisable value. Auditors suggesting going concern value lower.
- need to raise cash like now
- POW due diligence due 19th April - no update. Probably due to cash issues.
- 200 tonnes lithium missing in action
- Faso horrible place to do business how much of Greenstones do we own crucial SH information.
- DRC imminent two years plus ago.
- Elephant IPO on a slow burner.
Sorry but you analysis is not company specific and detailed. Lots of red flags above to worry SHs.
Posts on commodity prices and neighbours don't cut the mustard.
Boring boy is an expert and has called this right for years unlike Helpless.
Https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/alternative-investment-market.asp
DYOR
-----WINDS OF CHANGE COMING---
A Baron in the House of Lords [he is an Emeritus Professor of Accounting] has put out a few figures for retirement that has implications for those still working and even those retired inc health care. However, in the money section of the Daily Mail I recall that it was discussed that the fine print of retiring coincides with official retirement and payout for private pensions. This Baron can give actual figures of how many receiving full state pension etc. Wind of Change? There are now whiffs of it ie in the proposals vs what is in the kitty. MODELLING, FORECASTS: It was done a long time ago and somehow the forecasts have NOT factored in a few metrics, hence the situation today.
ME--I have NO TIME to LUXURIATE in RRR's history etc and I am MOVING ON given the winds of change coming. The Americans are also talking about this but they go one step further to MATCH LIFE EXPECTANCY figures. I have done that as well already. I have American thinking: Dont spend time luxuriating but rather have a winner's mind set. As in? As in what do I do. I am sharing as FOLKS MAY ASK WHERE IS NEWS? NEWS IS VERY BUSY & HAS LITTLE TIME GOING FORWARD PAST THIS SUNDAY TO LUXURIATE in the past. Everyone is sharing consensus but I an a independent thinker and I need stats to help formulate solutions. Big names are all discussing. Have a look or rather it should be coming out in the mainstream press but I dont tend to wait as the big names usually give out the coming legislation etc.
News, Sun, 12 May 2024.
Banburyboy
Sorry to disappoint you. You stated you are AN EXPERT? Expert in luxuriating in RRR past. All the figures you quoted of RRR is NOT the state of the co. The TRUE STATE is only IF the co survives or NOT. That will be in the RRR RNS and FROM THE OFFICIAL AUDITORS on going concern. You may postulate all you like but no one knows at this moment @Sun, 12 May 2024 on whether the CAPITAL MARKET will ease or not. Abstract etc ? Yes, IF, I also give DEFINITIVES, that may be right or wrong and it affects people's decision/s. THAT IS NOT MORAL TO MAKE DECISIONS FOR OTHERS --you are making decisions and that is up to you given you have no shares in RRR. FOR RRR HOLDERS, it is best to hear the state of the market and go on from there with some clarity. IF YOU ARE WRONG , just as Gary was wrong about CADENCE, ie they cannot sell their EMH etc, well, CADENCE is till here & Gary wrong. So, too many bloggers but they too have passed as their predictions have not eventuated in its entirety. You said yourself, your guiding emotion is dis-gruntled and that is not an objective position or neutral. I have NEUTRALITY - I examine and I check and I leave the LAST PART as UNFINISHED AND YET TO BE PROVEN. That is higher thinking and taught as being objective and balanced. News, 12.5.24 Sunday. But dont let me stop you luxuriating because since you have no stock in RRR, it is easy to luxuriate in the past --and the hour glass sand keeps changing and time stands still. IN REAL LIFE, TIME DOES NOT STAND STILL NOR RRR.
-----FOR THE AVOIDANCE OF DOUBT: NO ONE KNOWS. HOW? DID ANYONE ANTICIPATE THAT AVZ'S PROJECT WILL BE NOW JV WHILST AN INTERNATIONAL TRIBUNAL IS IN SESSION FOR THE FINAL RULING? THAT IS WHY I SAY, RRR WILL ALSO BE HELPED BY THIS INSIGHT--case law etc. Like how? Like what happened to RRR's 51% Musoni is also appears to be happening to the lithium project of AVZ in DRC ie JV out which means partial sale etc or in full? No details given. DYOR, NIA.
Afternoon NEWS'' / HP'' / NIKE / H50'' and those still invested and yes NEWS the wind of change is certainly coming from FCA 15 new rules'' for CEO and NOMAD and regulators to follow'' and one of those rules states no shorting under £23m MC ?
looking forward to that been implemented.... AIM and a lot of small SP like ours will benefit IMO
keep up the good posts, and good work to bring a bit of balance to an all time low SP been unfairly trashed to under option money for the past 2 years
ATB
Yahoo, Maidit308 as to FCA Rule 15 a coming. Ha Ha , that was quick. Why? Last was the Canadian Regulator is on to it.
News luxuriating in the past !!!
Every bullet was the here and now. Did you not understand my reference to Short term ?
This is a dog and you will learn.
No one has ever shorted this share IMO.
It's just a disaster in every respect. Complete non delivery on every project and even the NOMAD is dubious of accepting the company's word.
Bring on the new shorting rule. Not before time but academic here.
The problem is Blue air resources - inaccurate statements and photos and news by the company.
What will your next conspiracy for non delivery be ?
Anyway enjoy the dreamers Sunday love in all.
News Monday ?
Good gracious. Banburyboy to News: "This is a dog. You will learn."
LoL. For the cause of ALL shareholders of RRR - I think Providence will have compassion. Sun, 12 May 2024.
Gen 12:3 comes to mind as I depend on that in life. I will re-visit in time to come. As for shorting, it is FACT about "naked shorting" and litigation is being mooted and perhaps underway in Canada by the junior miners of which it was extensively talked about at the last Canadian PDAC and with the Canadian regulator as well. Depends on what you call shorting. I have NOT
The Blue Star Resources comments were successfully challenged by Bell and Winnifrith in the comments after the article ditto. the creator's bit about the telegram group - very well summarised in the response by Winnifrith. Bell had a right to be annoyed because the creator of the content had said the reader would be able to recognise the companies.
It was a "stock photo" (thought the Wikipedia explanation of the term was quite good - later slang not included in the article if correctly remembered) so that can happen in terms of someone "half-inching it".
Regarding if any lithium was exported to the port: Bera but not yet sold - regardless of tactics / price of the commodity speculation, I have asked myself if lithium ore can be stored for quite a long time and tried researching that, from the limited stuff I could find I am extrapolating that it could potentially be stored intact for years?
In relation to intact commodity storage, I ask News or Heplful to let me know in general terms - if that is possible? Thanks...
Back to the responses to the article, in relation to a comment about the speculated weight of the overall sacks - lithium is dense so... heavier car batteries and tyre pressure on roads, I presume the sacks can't be too full loaded for the men to be able to move them.
The 1 tonne would have had to refer to the overall sacks and if there weren't enough to add up to that weight, perhaps the photo was taken slightly early in the gathering - perhaps a little clumsily done rather than careless. If it was delegated then it might actually be noble not to have explained further - if it could have been more precise. Maybe the collection of ore was a heavy enough visual representation.
As long as the lithium ore is dry there are no issues.
DYOR