Rainbow Rare Earths Phalaborwa project shaping up to be one of the lowest cost producers globally. Watch the video here.
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Last post: Adnauseam, 19 Jun 2024 22:47
Formal Sale Process is still on, nothing has changed, it is just a matter of price or RENX go it alone, if they do they have to standby their shareholder value promise, cash burn is still high so BOD has to come up with a solution, even if sales increase, deep pockets required imo.
Cannot see any other way, appears they are holding out for an offer as time goes on, I may be wrong but otherwise it will be another placing as do not expect sales to to boom so that RENX is self financing. The sp tells the story.
"Renalytix has received an unsolicited approach from a large and well-capitalised publicly listed strategic diagnostics company, which is in the process of evaluating an acquisition of the entire issued, and to be issued, share capital of the Company".
Looks like some shorters are covering their positions. Could be that they've judged that the SP is likely to rise.
Started: dreamchase, 15 Jun 2024 20:33
Last post: DMcG54, 18 Jun 2024 16:03
Thanks SB, penny has dropped now :oD
DMcG54 - Renx reports using two different time periods - calendar year 2024 is what you would expect it to be (Jan - Dec 2024); and its current fiscal reporting year which runs from July 2023 to June 2024. So Q1 2025 is the way they refer to the time period July 2024 to Sept 2024. Appreciate its not exactly straightforward but there again it is Renx :-D Agree with your three view points - here's hoping LCD finally unlocks the sales pipeline because frankly nothing else has moved the dial. SB
SB: I don't get your point about "LCD does not formally kick in until 01/08 - which takes us into Q1 2025. SB" 01/08 is August 1st 2024, how does this equate to Q1 2025...?
SB and Tricky raise very valid and useful points IMHO, and I think the key is in Tricky's response.
In my view:
1) There is a lag effect in play, going forward the LCD thrust will be soooooooo significant but that will only be evident next quarter as things start to expand;
2) Trust in these types of company is poor (look at what happened to REDX - different company I know but part of a sector theme) - the market is always waiting for the next grenade to go off;
3) The company has to be in a position to "go it alone" to avoid being pressured into a fire-sale. There is so much going for this company and any lack of bad news next quarter with an uptick in sales will improve its image and its share price.
GLA
CVI might 'only' have 2.4m shares left to sell......but they get interest paid quarterly which means they are due another 4m+ shares in July, October etc - based on current share price. So this doesn't necessarily stop. Current fiscal year ends in two weeks - so they pretty much know Q4 sale figures. If there is a positive momentum - I would expect a positive trading update. If not, we will have to wait until Sept to see if the new sales team can actually sell the tests - accepting LCD does not formally kick in until 01/08 - which takes us into Q1 2025. SB
Last post: davemk115, 15 Jun 2024 18:45
That's what I'm hoping Reggie.
Dave
The numbers are potentially enormous.
If 20% of the US CKD population get a test every 7 years that is 1m tests pa.
This time next year Dave..
My biggest paper loss also.
Dave
My current largest investment and paper loss. If this is the start of an upturn it would be most welcome.
GLA.
Started: PJT12, 15 Jun 2024 08:58
Last post: PJT12, 15 Jun 2024 08:58
.....bleedin' obvious tells me to sit on this one for either positive sales news or a takeover. The SP will likely drift / tread water in the interim.
Started: Trickymatters, 14 Jun 2024 10:07
Last post: Mikemine, 14 Jun 2024 17:00
The US healthcare system has enormous coverage by insurance companies and it is often these that have to foot the bill for dialysis etc and that is a fortune. The insurance companies would be very positive about testing to keep their costs down by early intervention and of course the latest RNS indicates that the rest of the healthcare sector will be wide open to RENX's sales pitch. The CEO is a salesman by inclination and I'm not surprised that he has decided the company can go it alone and keep all the growth for itself and it's shareholders. I would not be surprised if the next financials reflect this.
Up over 20%, something is brewing.
Mozax, it's all in the RNS really. The sp fell when they announced they were going it alone for now. Plus CVC were selling down because they have bought bonds in the fundraise recently.
The broker says they'll get £2.00. In the presentation they said they could go it alone or they could sell. Several big pharma have treatments for chronic kidney disease. Those drugs can manage the disease and prevent deterioration. Severe kidney disease means dialysis or an organ transplant. Dialysis is pretty much the end of a working life isn't it. Awful, and costly for an individual and with the at risk numbers the way they are, it's a hit for the US economy twice over, lost earnings and the very expensive cost of trying to extend life through dialysis or transplant. This test will save lives, save money and sell more kidney treatments for big pharma. A few big firms will be interested. I expect they will be very motivated once the orders start coming through. GLA.
Looks like the US market is excited about the news!
A few years ago we were trading at nearly £14
Started: DMcG54, 14 Jun 2024 13:15
Last post: Trickymatters, 14 Jun 2024 13:55
When the draft guidance came out this went to 79p. The US market took it there once the Nasdaq opened where Renx is also listed. I don't think UK retail investors get the significance of this. But yes. Looks like some decent buys coming in. One of them was mine.
There are some bloody massive Unknown trades and they are looking like potential buys at 17.5p.
This share hasn't even started to re-correct yet, it will be fits and starts, but this looks like the pieces of the puzzle are at last starting to fall into place.
GLA
Started: Sharebel, 14 Jun 2024 09:35
Last post: mornington-oz, 14 Jun 2024 09:54
250.00 takeover, that would be a nice 10-15 bagger, fingers crossed. 🍀🍀🍀🍀
That RNS should send a rocket up the share price! All coming together nicely now and takeover price of offer from bigpharma co should reflect it minimum 2.50 here I think! Patience will pay either way! IMHO DYOR GLA
Started: DMcG54, 14 Jun 2024 08:09
Last post: mornington-oz, 14 Jun 2024 09:52
🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
The market hasn't picked up on this news yet, I expect next week and to the end of June the news will start to dawn on the market.
This from the news outlet 360dx:
National Government Services: Renalytix's KidneyIntelX and KidneyIntelX.dkd
National Government Services released a final LCD this week aligned with its draft LCD covering Renalytix's KidneyIntelX and KidneyIntelX.dkd tests once in a patient's lifetime. The assays are covered if the results are used to facilitate therapeutic prognostic decision-making in the medical management of a selected patient population. They are also covered when the results are used to determine the risk of progressive decline in kidney function in patients older than 21 with Type 2 diabetes and existing early-stage chronic kidney disease if the test is ordered by the treating physician or qualified non-physician practitioner.
The test must be performed in a CLIA-certified laboratory qualified to perform high-complexity testing and the reason for the test must be documented by the treating practitioner and demonstrate that the test is medically reasonable and necessary.
The assays are not covered for patients with estimated glomerular filtration rates lower than 30 or above 60 without albuminuria, patients with end-stage renal disease or those on renal recovery treatments, pregnant patients, patients who are currently hospitalized, or those taking etanercept.
The tests are also not covered as screening or standalone diagnostics.
The final LCD goes into effect on Aug. 1.
It's probably the same info as was provided before by Bob, but just in case:
https://www.cms.gov/medicare-coverage-database/view/article.aspx?articleId=59758&ver=3
Started: DMcG54, 14 Jun 2024 07:56
Last post: DMcG54, 14 Jun 2024 07:56
Wow, weird spread. Interesting things about to happen, especially in reaction to LCD.
GLA.
Started: BuddhaBob, 13 Jun 2024 08:14
Last post: BuddhaBob, 14 Jun 2024 03:10
Great spot Moose! Nice one 👍🏻
Not sure if the link below will work but it gives you the details.
Summary:
Final LCD Notice Period: 06/13/2024 - 07/31/2024
Final LCD Effective Date: 08/01/2024
https://www.cms.gov/medicare-coverage-database/view/lcd.aspx?lcdid=39725&ver=15&proposedStatus=all&sortBy=title&bc=9
It won’t let me paste the link… if you go to the CMS website and search Kidneyintelx you’ll see the final LCD. I also posted it on stocktwits if you wanted to take alook over there.
[LINK REMOVED]
Hi
i have not found any info of them receiving the LCD
where do you here that ?
They got the LCD today…. Notice period through end of July and effective August 1st
Started: TurtleHead, 3 Jun 2024 13:09
Last post: mornington-oz, 4 Jun 2024 08:31
Good to see this heading in the right direction again.
To get the most out of any sale process, the buyers have to believe you are prepared to do it yourself and not desperate to sell.
By raising funds now when the SP was higher they've stabilised the business, and insulated themselves against a sale not going through.
This both has the effect of making the shot term funded, and also giving the view externally if you don't pay the right price we'll do it.
Might mean an extra 10/20% in sale price
Started: MammaC, 31 May 2024 11:24
Last post: MammaC, 31 May 2024 11:24
Cant buy anything above £3000 on Halifax
Started: EOTB1958, 31 May 2024 10:35
Last post: EOTB1958, 31 May 2024 10:35
No communication, just endless RNS's (8.3 & 8.5). AIM company at it's best (said he sarcastically).
Last post: Hawker, 31 May 2024 09:53
I'm not sure it's fair to put this on AIM, had Renalytix just stayed on AIM (and not dual-listed on Nasdaq), it would very likely be in a much better place financially.
I for one think they should ditch the US listing, which would probably reduce their burn by another 20-30%. They have little or nothing to show for the Nasdaq listing. I anticipated a good few US-based Healthcare specialist funds picking this up, but no such luck for Renalytix... Very telling...
Let's see what comes of the Formal Sales Process/Offer Period. The company said three or more interested parties were still around the table and we're close to 90 days into the process, so we must be close to the conclusion of this v.soon.
Lastly, post the results call the company announced an ATM (At-The_market) facility, run by HC Wainwright in the US, this allows them to sell shares into the market to raise funds for the company, this likely explains the dump in the US price last night.
This company only adds to the disrepute in which the AIM is held. A company run by idiots or crooks. No more AIM for me either.
I will never invest in an Aim bio tech again. This could not have been engineered any better to allow takeover hostile or otherwise at the cheapest possible price - James not offering any interviews let alone question and answers now, disgraceful. Months of an ever falling sp and not a word from him!
Started: Silverblade, 31 May 2024 08:39
Last post: riceyboy84, 31 May 2024 08:52
The drop is due to it correcting itself in line with the US SP which took a battering yesterday, think we all now now we’re dealing with an arrogant egotistical mad man at the helm! It’s ok though cause he has our back! ‘We remain focused on optimizing shareholder value’ 😂
What happened to the 'Approach from Possible Strategic Acquiror'. It's a dodgy company with more than a whiff of you know what.
40k shares sold, c£6k, £4.5m off the market cap. Could not make this up. SB
Last post: riceyboy84, 30 May 2024 18:08
14% down in the US already! The fun continues, they’ve obviously done a cash raise to try and succeed on their own but now the market is turning it’s back on them, praying for admin soon so I can get closure and get this turd off my portfolio! Cause I ain’t selling for the price of a Big Mac meal
Interesting thoughts on the changes at the top. Probably a mistake to second-guess the reason(s) for these departures, but certainly at this delicate stage in the company'e existence, it does nothing but add to the uncertainty (and to the lack of investor appetite for RENX shares)...
I've noticed that the 'animal spirits' have been evident in some 'value' mid-caps of late - previously battered companies, which can show improving cash generation and a viable debt reduction pathway have been the big recovery winners in the past 2-3 months, I observe. None of this applies to Renx of course - macro factors do impinge here, but company-specific idiosyncrasies seem to be the main factor overwhelming investment performance. What am I saying here? That when it comes to early-stage biotechs, it's a lottery!
At this point in time, 50p looks like a decent exit price!
This is one of the most perplexing shares I have been invested in unhooked - so I mirror your thoughts. In a 'normal' sale scenario, you would expect there to be some risk appetite from investors to support the share price in the hope of a successful outcome - but not here. The ongoing selling by CVI is not helping either. I also assume because of the takeover rules that no shareholder with any knowledge of what's going on behind the scenes can purchase shares on the open market - not that I expect that would happen anyway based on the past. I am even more perplexed as to the timing of Tom McLain leaving (he actually took over from James McCullough at exosomes before it was bought out); and then OJ Sterling's departure was even more bizarre (he has been with RENX since the start; and worked with McCullogh at Renwick Capital as joint managing partners - so they go a long way back). Turns out OJ had a job - he starts at Bluebird Bio on 10th June - which has a strong cash balance but needs to restate its latest finances which is the role OJ is to oversee. Its all very strange and creates total uncertainty as to what is going on at corporate level, which no investor likes. Are there differences of opinion on the way forward hence the departures, or is deal likely and people are just moving onto pastures new, or have major shareholders made their positions known on the lack of commercial traction and company finances and change had to happen? For a company with such potential and to have achieved so much - a valuation of £25m and falling seems nuts. SB
Ignore the dreamers in here shouting about £2-3, if I were James I’d take anything that’s offered, unfortunately he’s put the company in that position through a series of bad decisions, it’s take whatever's offered or certain administration! I’d be shouting from the hill tops if I even got 2/3 of my investment back here! Unfortunately I can’t research stupidity
Last post: mornington-oz, 30 May 2024 08:42
Any bid would surely be way higher than the current price, these have previously traded at nearly £12.00?
Paddy, They would be in violation of SEC and LSE regulations if they put out a misleading RNS to manipulate stock prices, so very much doubt that's the case.
Wonder if the talk about a bid was just baloney to get the price up for the fund raise! Wouldn’t put it past these clowns.
Started: Silverblade, 28 May 2024 13:16
Last post: riceyboy84, 29 May 2024 13:21
Down she goes again!!! James McCullough should never be allowed near another company again! He’s played an absolute howler with every move and the market has made him pay for his stupidity! I’d warn prospective investors to be wary about rampers on here banging on about a £2-3 TO but there are no investors left! 😂
Of course they could pop up on a bidding team.
Another bonkers day in the life of Renx. OJ Sterling appears to have been removed from office. He holds 1.8m shares. He is being replaced by the ex CFO of Minerva Surgical - which just happens to include Renx non exec director Catherine Coste on its board of directors. It’s like game of thrones meets kidney disease. Whatever next. SB
Started: warrior1066, 28 May 2024 12:31
Last post: riceyboy84, 28 May 2024 12:54
On a positive! Which is few and far between, the change of CEO and CFO in such a short time might be a shining light, James either wants rid of those who aren’t towing the line to go it alone, or they’re off early with their share options waiting to be paid handsomely! I hope it’s the latter, I really do
Down over 200% in the last 3 months but don’t let facts get in the way of a good story 👍🏻
Up 10% on NASDAQ pre-market. if that is anything to go by
Started: riceyboy84, 28 May 2024 07:33
Last post: Jatw, 28 May 2024 12:53
I read it like Riceboy
Particularly:
Whilst we remain focused on optimizing shareholder value, we are now well-positioned to become a sales and marketing play in a large and open market space
They sound ready to go imo . To the highest bidder.!
Oh Dear! Every word of that RNS indicated they were gonna go it alone! Company will be dead and buried before Q4 imo
Started: Trickymatters, 22 May 2024 16:56
Last post: MIKODX, 27 May 2024 15:32
Here's what the RNS on the 29th Feb stated:
LONDON and SALT LAKE CITY, February 29, 2024 - Renalytix plc (NASDAQ: RNLX) (LSE: RENX) ("Renalytix" or the "Company") announces that effective March 1, 2024, the United States Government has approved adding the company's Food and Drug Administration ("FDA") de Novo Marketing authorized test, kidneyintelX.dkd, to its 10-year Governmentwide Acquisition Contract (GWAC) for early-stage kidney disease bioprognostic? testing services.
Then four days later RENX announces the following:
Renalytix has received an unsolicited approach from a large and well-capitalised publicly listed strategic diagnostics company, which is in the process of evaluating an acquisition of the entire issued, and to be issued, share capital of the Company.
Therefore, the Company has commenced a review of all available options, including a possible sale of the Company and/or its assets, and has commenced a formal sale process (as referred to in Note 2 on Rule 2.6 of the City Code on Takeovers and Mergers) (the "Formal Sale Process").
I'm pretty certain that a big company has realised the potential RENX has, especially now that their test has been added to the GWAC. A bigger company will have more experience and know how on getting theis product distributed and expanded throughout the States.
It was FDA approved last July. I am referring to the recommendation from the US insurance authorities for national coverage in the US. It will be the catalyst for a massive rerate. CVI are selling stocks because they have bought warrants. I will buy some more in my SIPP and ISA this Summer before the end of July if I can. LCD coverage is now expected by the company 'by or before the end of September '. Knowing my luck it will happen early July before I have any new funds😅
I thought the test was already FDA approved, or am I missing something?
About to be called. A Labour government will be great for retail investors. They say they want to attract investors and on health Wes Streeting is on record of wanting prevention and early intervention in place. Renalytix has the perfect product regarding chronic kidney disease which affects 10 million in the US but at least 2 million in the UK. When the US approves this test within 3 months I can see the the UK following swiftly. GLA.
Started: Biginersguide, 24 May 2024 15:53
Last post: Biginersguide, 24 May 2024 15:53
I did a top up today at 18.9 p
Started: Trickymatters, 22 May 2024 08:56
Last post: Silverblade, 22 May 2024 16:24
Fre1 - all Harwood holdings are consolidated under Christopher Mills, Director and Chairman - and include the holdings of Harwood Capital, Oryx and North America Smaller Companies. Collectively their holding amounted to 10.07m shares in March 2024, prior to the fundraise. They agreed to purchase a further 4m shares as part of the fundraise - in both the first and second placing. The first placing shares have been issued, the second were approved at the AGM in late April but not issued yet. Their total holdings are therefore c.14m shares; and the % varies of which metric is being used to calculate total % holdings as the first and second placing shares are introduced to the market. Bear in mind general corporate holdings announcements are also being made as the company is under takeover rules and sometimes there are crossovers which confuse the holdings position. Based on the final 150m shares in circ, they will hold about 9.4%. Hope that helps. SB
Thanks for the link unhooked - here's the link to the company's shareeholder information from 10 April 2024 per their website:
https://investors.renalytix.com/financials-and-filings/shareholder-information
No mention of Harwood Capital so i want if they have sold out completely now or are below the non disclosable 3%?
Looks like Harwood have yet to update the market via rns on their reduced holding?
Riceyboy, you're really panicking. I am buying another £10k when I have sold something else that's only just started moving properly. This is Aim. Shares are volatile. If you don't believe in the stock then sell. Don't keep whining mate. Not a good look.
They're about to get insurance coverage for the whole of the US. It's worth waiting for. Enough iis in at this level. It went to 80p in a day when the consultation started. Once the recommendation comes it will triple or quadruple from wherever it is and when orders come in it will build again. They are queuing up already according to the CEO. Pharma companies will wait for the lcd decision to be announced. Obviously they will want that confirmation.
I wouldn’t feel sorry for them! Everything is about planning and budgeting, that’s what a business plan is for! If they couldn’t foresee this situation then they shouldn’t have got to this point, absolutely poor management from the BOD! You don’t create a product and ask questions later. Diluting to keep the lights on is their own fault no one else’s
Fre1, sometimes the holding goes under the name of C.Mills, CIO of Harwood.
Fwiw, this is what marketscreener says, although I'm unsure if it's been recently updated:
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/RENALYTIX-PLC-58002419/company/