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Watch for the decamping starting this evening. Regular as clockwork for a few months now. Not shorters as it's not dropping far enough quick. Coupled with blocker share sales each time we move it's like concerted controlling SP in a price bandwidth .50 - .53 Just how it looks that's all. When they are ready or news is ready this malarkey will stop.
Sure thing @jimb2, but "God Parity" is the real killer. It's where the total cost of ownership of a *local* solar+battery solution, is more economically attractive than an alternative (hypothetical) proposition of generating the energy for "free" *centrally* but paying for transmission costs (upfront capital, running/maintenance costs/ decommissioning etc). Tony Seba calls it "God Parity" everyone else refers to it as a decentralised energy generation and distribution model. It's the future - enabled by batteries of course... ;-) All houses, and businesses will still be connected together and to others + some central generation, but much thinner "pipes" will be required, meaning much less upfront infrastructure costs. From what I remember, in some areas of the world you are talking up front capital costs of 10's of thousands of pounds to connect each house in a community to centrally generated power 100's of miles away, whereas if solar/battery is introduced into the equation, the capability of the connecting infrastructure drops by an order of magnitude to "only" thousands of pounds per house - a proposition which is already being executed in sunnier parts of the world in remoter areas where electricity is expensive. e.g. parts of Australia. Micro-grids. Google it if is new to you. Not you @jimb2 - I know you are on the ball with what is unfolding! ;-) Ob.
From Tony Seba twitter, “grid parity” – that is, as cheap, or cheaper to produce and deliver than traditional fossil energy sources, in 80% of world markets this year. https://tinyurl.com/jfgcd2a
Article in Business section Old energy order draws to a close amid battery storage revolution
"Decentralised Energy – it’s the future for Britain" (March 4, 2017) https://nuclear-news.net/2017/03/04/decentralised-energy-its-the-future-for-britain/ === Now finally EDF may be catching up. Les Echos, the French business newspaper, carried an extraordinary article from Senior Vice President Marc Boillot who said “large nuclear or thermal power plants designed to function as baseload are challenged by the more flexible decentralized model”. He says that the centralised model of power production is dying, to be replaced by local solar and wind, supplemented by batteries and intelligent management of supply and demand. Not only will this be cheaper in the long run but customers are actually prepared to pay more for solar electricity and actively work to reduce usage at times of shortage. His conclusion is that “the traditional model must adapt to the new realities, thus allowing the utilities to emerge from …hypercentralized structures in a world that is becoming more and more decentralized”. (3) http://www.no2nuclearpower.org.uk/nuclearnews/NuClearNewsNo93.pdf === Batteries, batteries everywhere...
Seems we have little choice other than switching to EV's, clean air plan draft due next month. Setting out his order in court on 21 November, concluding ClientEarth's case against the Secretary of State for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra), Justice Garnham gave the Government until 24 April 2017 to produce a draft plan and 31 July to deliver a final one. The Judge rejected the Government's suggested timetable which would have allowed it until September of next year to produce a final plan, saying it was “far too leisurely”. We should all be concerned: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-39170488
Top stuff as always Obs
Thanks for the kind remarks everyone! Couple of articles from http://www.energy-storage.news/ which I recommend following "Australia�s household solar-plus-storage market grew more than 1000% in 2016" (20 Feb 2017) http://www.energy-storage.news/news/australias-household-solar-plus-storage-market-grew-more-than-1000-in-2016 === Consultancy SunWiz found that in 2016, around 6,750 batteries were installed in Australian households, compared to just 500 in the previous year. Assuming the average battery storage system to be around 7.7kWh to allow for meaningful self-consumption of solar, this equates to more than 50GWh of installed energy storage systems. === Shame they can't do maths - it's 50MWh, but you get the point, exponential explosive growth. "Tesla Powerpack to enter UK�s FFR market with Open Energi technology" (28 Feb 2017) http://www.energy-storage.news/news/tesla-powerpack-to-enter-uks-ffr-market-with-open-energi-technology === Dan Taylor, managing director at CES, said: �We have ambitious deployment targets for energy storage in the UK and this successful project is an exciting step forward for us and the industry. It demonstrates the vital role of energy storage in delivering secure, low carbon power to the UK. �We are aiming to co-locate further energy storage with renewable generation throughout the UK and help make our electricity system fit for the future.� === We all probably saw this last week, but worth quoting the important bit: "Bigger than Giga: Tesla�s plan for 3 more battery megafactories" (2nd March 2017) http://benchmarkminerals.com/bigger-than-giga-teslas-plan-for-3-more-battery-megafactories/ === At the moment, a Gigafactory at capacity would not be able to source the lithium hydroxide needed. It simply does not exist in a lithium market that is operating very close to capacity. === and one for those who think Yangibana is worthless (!?) "The US rare earth vulnerability and mammoth battery supply disconnect" (February 02, 2017) https://investorintel.com/sectors/technology-metals/technology-metals-intel/us-vulnerability-mammoth-battery-disconnect-rare-earth-supply/ === The thesis is rather simple. If you believe that we are on the cusp (or indeed already in) of a massive surge in adoption of EVs and HEVs and therefore the batteries for these vehicles (primarily the Li-Ion battery format) will rule the Earth then how can one not also posit that the type of engine that dominates the same vehicles will have a proportionate need for the Rare Earth magnets produced from Neodymium and Praseodymium. If one is disturbed by potential shortages of Lithium and Cobalt, then why no sleepless nights about Rare Earths? === Worth a full read! I've also just posted an interesting energy storage article on the INSP board. It has relevance here, but I decided more "upbeat" for INSP! ;-) Ob.
Your posts are always an enjoyable read ob, keep up the good work! Can't see any benefit to a closed group with a share that is at the moment too quiet in the big world. Myself and probably many others found their way to these lse forums by researching discussion boards on REM, and so getting here and finding well researched posts was/is invaluable! If the well researched and factual posts of possible future REM potential disappear then the board will simply be left with likes of you know who and you know that isn't a good thing for the share! GLA
absolutely mac... it's nothing sinister at all ob... just not sure it's appropriate for prime time viewing just yet...
The current discussion of interest doesn't appear to involve Lithium, so on that basis I think you can allow yourself to join up ;)
Hats off to you obs .. Nothing sinister in the bunker !! .. Only Fact's are allowed or discussed .. the Bunker as you call it is indeed , Full of likeminded investors .. Researched and informed .. Question .. Will Sonora and or Cinovec ever get to Mine ( Yes ) when !! N A F Clue .. but me and some very happy punters of mine hold and continue to build a nice little tidy Sum .. The bunker would point you to some advantages .. Out of the box at times , but always truthful !!! x mac
@tomcat. I have yet to decide whether to apply to join or not. I've said many a time I'd much rather the bunker didn't exist as in my opinion it is responsible for decreasing the signal to noise ratio on this board. I like to think that my purpose here isn't to confirm to myself or a small band of others that I have made the right decision - I'm pretty sure I have given all available facts, it's to try to persuade other investors, importantly those looking in for the first time, that REM is a sound investment with fairly low risk, but with plenty of upside. To potential investors: I see REM as having great long term potential, but with the possible excitement of short term news driven multi-bagging - e.g. mergers, off-takers, asset sales/purchases. If you were to only have *one* lithium asset in your portfolio, I'd certainly take an in-depth look into REM if I were you! ;-) Ob.
A varied portfolio .. Hold for Gold .. and lithium ,, a bit of Gas , some coltan , a UK oil drill , tungsten , Gold , lithium , Gold , lithium , x mac
Indeed @Barksy! For those of you that like thinking about the future - I recommend following https://www.exponentialinvestor.com/ Your post reminded me of this article: "The art of seeing the invisible" (3rd February 2017) https://www.exponentialinvestor.com/art-seeing-invisible/ === So where next? Where’s the next big, disruptive change coming from? I see two on the horizon. Both present major opportunities. The first, ironically enough, follows the same template as Churchill and Fisher’s move from coal to oil. There are very clear signs we’re approaching a similar tipping point today. The move from fossil fuels to renewables is well under way. The real key to this transition is battery technology – somewhere to store the solar, wind, tidal or other renewable energy until we need it. ... In that world, lithium becomes more valuable than oil. Lithium is a vital component in battery technology (though not the only one). In a world that’s shifting towards renewable energy stored in industrial-scale batteries, you’d expect lithium to become both more valuable and strategically important. === The point being that it is fairly obvious to me that just as coal was replaced by oil, oil is going to be replaced by Solar, and that Solar energy has to be stored in batteries, and if those batteries continue to require lithium - then investing in lithium early, before the herd get it, and I mean really get it, is a no-brainer - sure there are other metals *today* which go into batteries which might be worth looking into, but from what I'm seeing, it's likely to be lithium long term - graphite/cobalt etc, may not be required in future batteries. It is indeed possible that lithium might be replaced - there continues to be talk about substituting for cheaper sodium, but ultimately it'll boil down to a question of whether the end customer would rather have a product - e.g. a mobile phone which can last for 18 hours, or pay a little more for one that can last for 24 hours. i.e. unless prohibitively costly, the battery technology with the highest energy and secondly power density will likely win the day IMHO. Rare Earth Minerals is a great Lithium investment in my opinion, look to our assets - now when are we going to change our name to include Lithium in the title so as not to be overlooked by those looking to invest in the unfolding lithium story?! Of course, the fact we have yet to change our name could very well indicate "something" is still in play... ;-) Ob.
you dont mean PUB WALLY?
Pub crew awaiting ? Don't you dare leave me all be with you know who !
Tweet,crock of gold @ the end of the rainbow, Hmm D21
Here's is some good advice whilst we are patiently waiting for Rem 😉 https://qz.com/913249/the-practical-steps-it-takes-to-actually-become-a-millionaire/
5p mr J that would be nice if it came early, catch 22 for me that 5p would give me ten years of investing to get a great pension however finding another REM would be the hard bit at that point. I'd probably stay in and take out a tenth to re invest elsewhere. Obs has done some good work on here clearly showing the massive potential we have. It is time tic toc !
I would be more than happy at 5p, 50p would possibly put me in the rich list :)
I'd be a happy man at 50p I'm In no rush 15 years til I retire, sooner if it hits 50p. Genuinely believe in this share, it's only time before we see us hit the big time. Great post Obs
If EV/Grid storage follows an S curve adoption, as many expect it will, we could be looking at 10 times more lithium required per year by 2025 than that forecast by those who don't really get it. So what could that mean for us if perceptions change, and all of our lithium is required, and required fast!? From "Drill Programme Completed at the Cinovec Lithium Project" (20 February 2017) http://www.rareearthmineralsplc.com/index.php?cID=287&id=13535925 === The Mexican and Czech deposits have published Indicated and Inferred Mineral Resources more than 15 million tonnes of Lithium Carbonate Equivalent. === It's not specified there how much of that is attributable to REM - I'm sure we could work it out: it's somewhere between 19% and 43%: probably between 25% and 30%. From table 22.4 of the BCN PFS. The baseline post-tax NPV@8% for $6,000 LCE is $542M. It is straightforward to determine that for each $600 increase in LCE this increases by $134M. Therefore if we were to sell for $12,000 the post tax NPV would be: $542M + $134M * (6000 / 600) = $1,882M From table 1.2 of the PFS the North pit contains 1,570kt LCE therefore at a first guess the 15 million Indicated and Inferred Mineral Resources could support around: 15,000kt / 1,570kt = 9.5 nine 35kt/yr plants for 20 years. Therefore with a sale price of $12,000/yr we are talking an NPV today of: $1,882M * 9 * £0.81 = £13.7B ~25-30% of which is attributable to REM ~ £4B. With 7,777,690,338 shares in issue that is: £4,000,000,000 / 7,777,690,338 ~ 50p a share. And we have more to explore - and more than just Sonora and Cinovec under our belt. If you think the lithium (LCE) demand will far outstrip the conservative forecasts of ~500kt/yr by 2025, as I do, perhaps by an order of magnitude more, then surely REM is a massive buy right now? The upsides are out of the ball park - with very little downsides from what I can see. Obviously I've assumed EMH is just another BCN, but from what we've been seeing recently, the costs could be significantly less than BCN's - i.e. that assumption could be on the pessimistic side. Soon we'll have the EMH PFS and BCN will deliver their BFS, eventually... Contract prices appear still to be rising, so delays could turn out to be a good thing of course! The EV companies and battery makers know what is coming by now, it will be their road-maps driving it, they are not stupid, they *will* be securing their resources. Don't let them steal this potentially once in a lifetime investment from under our noses! Of course it will likely come good regardless if the demand is there, but I don't want good, I want great! ;-) Ob.
IS now eliminated i won't be able to sleep now G L A