Member Info for Spadger42

Good news today and price drops ???

Form 8.3 (filed by significant shareholders >1%): At least 8–10

Form 8.5 (filed by market makers/brokers): At least 10–12

steady institutional interest, particularly from funds like Acadian Asset Management, who have been consistently adding to their position.

Pacassa Spud programme has commenced

Sonangol is funding It

Production Levels: Q1 was 5,958 bopd

Net Debt Reduction down to $12.6 million

Revenue: expected April 50 million

The company states it is attempting to get maximise shareholder value.

Potential buy out rated at 112p and 142p

Analyst strong consensus to buy

Average Target: 112.25p – 113.00p

Canaccord Genuity, Cavendish, Shore Capital and Peel Hunt maintain a buy.

Valuation: The stock is currently viewed as a "Super Stock by some data providers.

All good news.

GLA

IF offers do come in, which is speculation a realistic premium would be 25–40% take-out price range circa 96–108p. Afentra has officially hired Jefferies, but Afentra says it’s not for sale at any price, this is an exploratory process to see if there’s a good offer that maximizes value for shareholders. Either way it’s positive news.

Impact on Share Price

Likely mildly positive overall, removes uncertainty, strengthens partnership, keeps growth story intact.

Short-term: Some may sell on “delay” or “smaller stake” possible pullback/consolidation.

Medium-term: Supports re-rating toward analyst targets (~96–105p average) as completion nears.

Https://www.marketscreener.com/news/maurel-prom-sonangol-afentra-to-buy-additional-interests-in-two-angolan-blocks-ce7e5ed9d08cff21?utm_campaign=news++email_alerte_news_lire-suite++&utm_content=+++lire-suite+&utm_source=email&utm_medium=alerte

Sorry cant upload the full article

Https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/iran-says-oil-will-reach-200-barrel-warns-continuous-strikes-2026-03-11/

Really needs that RNS sooner rather than later.

More like a pullback, I suppose we’ll see a few of these until then RNS drops. The sooner the better.

It happens. Hold firm GLA

Well, we are within a month of finding out some good news and the SP is slowly creeping up. Will we get the re rating?

At a current implied P/NAV of 0.6×, a re-rating to 1.0× NAV would take the share price to ~90p, and a more conservative re-rating to 0.9× would be ~81p

3 different sources giving great reviews, surely it’s coming.

MarketBeat (updated Feb 2026): Three analysts rate Afentra as Buy (no Holds/Sells), with an average 12-month price target of GBX 96 (range GBX 90–113). This implies ~75–100%+ upside from current levels (~54p). Recent reiterations include:

Simply Wall St (Feb 2026 updates):

• Lists Afentra in “Top 10 Growth Companies With High Insider Ownership” (Feb 17, 2026), noting 37.7% insider ownership and forecast earnings growth of 32.4% annually.

• Valuation models suggest the stock is ~78–86% undervalued relative to cash flow/fair value estimates (e.g., cash flow value ~GBX 398 vs. current ~GBX 53).

• Earnings/revenue growth forecasts: 33.1% and 17.8% per annum, with EPS up 36.4%

TipRanks (Feb 4, 2026 coverage recap):

• Highlights Afentra’s resource upgrade (400% increase in 2C contingent resources to 87.3 mmboe), operatorship of Block 3/24, and 2026–27 drilling push as positioning for “step-change” production/reserves.

• Overall stock score driven by strong financials and attractive valuation; Outperform rating from their AI analyst.

If we see anything between 56.2-57 tomorrow it could get interesting.

In the company’s February 2026 updates we were told of two events that will or are very strongly expected to occur before the end of March 2026

Completion of the Etu Energias Acquisition. Completion expected in Q1 2026

Completion of the KON4 Onshore License, Expected timing, completion in Q1 2026

These two should help push towards analyst targets which average ~96–100p

A possible upside of 25-45% at around 65–70p at this stage. Q2 is the interesting stage! GLA

Https://youtu.be/fiir0Oqtbi4?si=mo_LInCA0W1oEc8o

Hopefully by Q1 we’ll get some news, by Q2 drilling and upwards we go, Q3 well 85p. If all goes as expected.

Angola Block Approvals and Acquisitions: In October 2025, Afentra secured formal approval for the Risk Service Contract on offshore Block 3/24, an oil-rich area near existing facilities.   This follows a September 2025 heads of terms agreement, which boosted the stock at the time.  Market discussions on X note this as confirmation of active M&A, potentially leading to inorganic growth and re-rating the stock’s valuation.

Hope you get some good news for Christmas, you deserve it !

I won’t, thanks for that, I’ll only be going in at about 5k, no more. It’s just too risky but I still think this will given a few years be a good long term investment.
Thanks