Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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If there is no bidding war that is...
I'm all for restructuring, mind you, the BOD has to change prior.
I see the potential (this is bloody cheap if managed well) and get out just before the peak of the next leisure industry boom - 7-10yrs imo.
Triumph - these assets, shorn of an expensive and useless management team, head office and listing costs is worth a good amount of money. What potentially takes it significantly above the current share price is competition between bidders for the assets. I would agree with you if this were a bilateral transaction but we know at least two possible buyers, Nightcap and Luke Johnson et al who you have to assume would step up to buy the whole thing if their restructure looked like it wasn’t going to happen.
Ohhh as expected, things are starting to warm up here. The company do have some decent assets, and can see the appeal of them.
However, i see no scenario where any bidder will be able to cherry pick the best parts of the business. Of course, any asset sale will need to be approved by the lenders, and this approval will cost big to cover the losses from the worthless chaff.
I am confident that unless a very...very generous offer is made for individual bar brands, it will be an all or nothing situation as it would be a headache for the lenders to break this up. This is not a liquidation, and the lenders are willing to allow this company to continue trading so i see no reason why lenders will sell best performing assets unless at a significant premium.
As things stand, an offer of anything above 1.45p for the entire company is a favorable outcome to current shareholders and would recommend current holders to accept (that is unless you believe in the turnaround plan to yield results, which i personally don't).
Talk regarding bids at 5p make no sense. Why would anyone bid over 3x more than what the company itself values the business as it currently stands at?
Any offer above 1.8p would be very generous indeed. At 2p, SHs would be crazy not to bite the hands off the offeror.
Why would anyone pay 15-20p for something currently priced at 1.65p?
You normally get a 20-30% premium over current price, no more
Now then!
Don't go and upset the addicted shorter...
Passage nearly but not quite.
The bank have allready supported the restructuring and contributed via a write off which leaves SH with an SP of today 1.5.
They would prefer all there money back from a sale and quiet a few party's are interested.
Fundamental difference is bank is 100% supportive of company continuing.
Question is will that be
- a bid and hopefully more than 1.5p
- the existing restructuring and CVA which guarantees the funding if you read the terms for two years.
So wipe out definitely won't happen.
Unravelling just like McColls
cashcall to preserve the business as a going concern to attract bidders through the sale process
then company entered a CVA and shareholders got wiped out
If it goes for that price at least a third of the major stakeholders will not be happy...
IMO it'll go wholesale for between 15p and 20p...more if sold off in parts...
You have to assume that the Nightcap management team could make a better fist of this than the useless Keith Edelman and co. Time to pass the baton on…
Banburyboy, Net Bank Debt was £21.8 million at 10 April 2024, not £28m.
PE firms also circling.
Also keep in mind Eldose Babu significantly purchasing shares in December 5p -5.5p region.
I’m of the opinion a bid of around 5p-6p is received, and excepted. Lower bid initially which is rejected and subsequently increased by 30%. Is usually the way these events unfold.
The assets of course will have to get re-evaluated.
Everybody needs to win...
So £32mil, 249.45 mil shares, 12.8p a share?
133mil in assets supposedly according to the RNS
FWIW I was of the opinion it's worth about 50mil-debt
To add AS it will be Echew pending the concusion of the outright sale.
Ian - I agree £50 if they then go straight to admin not out of the question.
as - I'm assuming the money for the raise is returned with or without interest.
Can see how they could participate.
Absolutely convinced a good bid 4-5p would be voted down.
50mil isnt outside the realms of possibility for PE for 80 bars and peach pubs, esp without the debt.
would be a great deal in 1-2 years and lower interest.
in here with 153k at 2.35, but another load at 8.2, bid of 5p would get me out at a small loss.
Banbury - so if a bid was to come in at say 5p and share price goes to 4p and you sell. What happens to the shares taken up under the offer that don't get awarded until September? I agree with your point but not sure how these will work.
So my view private equity has to
1 - pay off bank in full £28m
2 - offer shareholders something meaningful say 5p = £14m
£42m gets the company and they send it straight through restructuring but the gain not our top three.
Personally I think we could see some strange behaviour here and the big SH vote against 5p as there is more value TO THEM in the restructuring which massively increases there stake and gives them control.
If we get an offer and the SP moves anywhere close to the offer price I'm out. Got about 160k shares at an average of something like 3.5p. Happy to escape with a haircut but feel sorry for LTHs
Yes, agreed. the new shares dont have any bearing as they aren't credited until September.
OK- but the decision to accept or reject any counter proposal must only be determined by the holders of the 280m pre annoucment shares.
My understanding is the 12.5m raised is in trust until the board votes on approval.
I think if someone bids 5p now it goes to a vote of the 280m. If its rejected it reverts to the scheme of arrangement.
At least we are not going bust :)
I'm not saying the new shares are in the vote, the RNS states that the initial conversations and exploratory observations includes the current in issue shares, and the ones to be issued for the 12.5mil raise.
"possible offer for the entire issued and to be issued ordinary share capital"
Ian - the new shares don't participate in the vote
The three main SHs have a huge conflict of interest !
Accept a bid of say 4p which would be better for you and I OR
Reject it as the open offer gives them a much greater share of the company.
Any offer will have to get the support of the bank and even if it looks on the face of better than restructuring I think it will be voted down
Haha yeah, i noticed that as well. clearly not well investigated, just had a brief tip off from someone
Not a brilliant piece of reporting where MK thinks trading in the shares is currently suspended.
RNS this morning, and press speculation about a buyout offer. this includes all shares in issue, and all of the 1p placing ones
Nightcap and Rekom are among the parties which expressed interest in buying part or all of Revolution ahead of a bid deadline on Wednesday, Sky News understands.
https://news.sky.com/story/revolution-bars-rivals-eye-bids-for-struggling-chains-assets-13127095
but no firm offer yet