Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Sanford C. Bernstein is one of the most reputable and top ranked analyst institutions in the world...
I expect really important news regarding the Easyjet acquisition to drop really soon! IAG share price is really chap atm and I expect a £2.5-3 sp when the deal closes.
Ps. One of the largest and oldest financial services company (based in the US) with $2.6 trillion AUM, Capital Research Group, have added over 30million shares in IAG recently...
Buy on strength!
:) PIVOOOOOOOOOT PIVOOOOOOOOOOT
What I understood from JPOWs speech was along the same lines, yield curve approaching zero almost inverted i.e. good signal economy slowing and hikes working by being restrictive.
He also mentioned the FX crisis other countries are facing with dollar dominance, which also makes me believe that they will slow down from December onwards reaching a terminal rate of 5% in Feb, IMHO.
x
Analysts Set International Consolidated Airlines Group S.A. (LON:IAG) Price Target at GBX 166.17 - American Banking and Market News
Just some stuff that popped up this morning. Have a great day everyone!
Note UBS target from yesterday if anyone missed it: UBS Group Analysts Give International Consolidated Airlines Group (LON:IAG) a GBX 155 Price Target - American Banking and Market News
Based on data from MarketBeat.com, the company presently has an average rating of Hold and an average price target of GBX 172.62 ($2.09).
Easyjet & TAP Airlines acquisitions will take us above £2.5 by early 2023, a double from here.
Also we approved to buy the new jets to increase and modernise our fleet to meet the pent up demand of the coming years! The next decade will be the decade of airlines and travel!
Debt is good during inflation, you technically pay it off at almost 10% a year automatically (10% being current inflation level). I believe we need to aggressively invest, contrary to my previous comment, cash is bad during inflation... because by holding it you lose the amount equal to inflation.
I writ below in a post why I believe the Easyjet/TAP Air Portugal acquisitions are great and the timing is perfect because they're extremely undervalued, there is no point holding large sums of cash.
Anyhow, FOMC meeting on the 2nd. A 75pt hike is priced in for this meeting, what is important is the guidance, any signal to slowing down and a smaller hike than what is currently projected is extremely bullish, In which case I expect the markets to rally by 10-15%.
1) Nov rate hike fully priced-in at 0.75% (from 91% prob. end of Sep)
2) Dec rate hike 79% priced-in at 0.75% (from 63% prob. end of Sep)
If we get 75pt in Nov, followed by a 50pt Dec 14th and a 50pt in Feb 1, we get a major relief rally. This will put the terminal rate at 4.5% in the first qtr of 2023.
However the recent CPI and PCE figures came elevated so it will be interesting to see what happens. BNP Paribas has a terminal rate of 5.25%
Have a good night!
I agree with Nellie, there is actually a good example of this in the US regarding how Southwest Airlines (largest low cost airline in the world) outmanoeuvred other major airlines and nearly put them out of business by offering cheaper prices during the 2008 GFC. It even has an economic term named after it, the 'southwest effect' which was introduced by the US department of transport in 1993. They accomplish such low prices by increasing the supply... lower fares cause increased demand and improved load factors and therefore greater revenues/cashflow.
Point being that easyjet is very undervalued, they're reaching 2008 levels, however, they are a much more vast and larger company compared to those years, they have a greater fleet size, offer more routes, more flights, magnitudes time more revenue etc. They had £6.39bil revenue in 2019 with a £2.21bil gross profit and £3.54bil cach/equiv end of 2021. Current market cap is around £2.5bil...
I believe it would be a smart move, we have considerable cash to pull it off, around 9.3billion (euro) in cash per q3 filings on 28th Oct 2022. Liquidity of 13.5 billion euros.
IAG ICAG.MC: JP MORGAN RAISES TARGET PRICE TO EUR 1.45 FROM EUR 1.40 --- after next quarter they'll make it 1.5, then 1.6, then 2 etc etc, that's how analysts update their excel sheets :)
Intriguing...
British Airways owner International Consolidated Airlines Group SA could attempt to buy rivals easyJet PLC and Portugese state-owned flag carrier TAP Air Portugal, the Times reported on Monday.
The potential acquisitions are part of IAG's renewed plans to consolidate the European airline industry, the newspaper said.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/british-airways-owner-iag-looks-to-snap-up-rivals-as-easyjet-falters-vxqb9tx89
Well I guess that's it for recession. They know the economy is slowing in relevant places which they want it too, this is why they're projecting a "wait and see" policy for after this qtr. As I mentioned the forex crisis will cause large financial instability in US markets by way of yield volatility once US debt holders such as Japan/China/UK/EU start unloading US debt to prop their currency, the FED is aware of this too and has opened swap lines which can only do so much.
GDP Price index QoQ: 4.1% vs 9.1% previous and 5.3% estimate!!
The GDP Price Index measures the annualised change in the price of all goods and services included in gross domestic product.It is the broadest inflationary indicator.
Scotty I agree lol xD.
Jtan, market seems more stable, I was going mental around 90s lol, made funds available just to buy IAG. I did state unless we got nuclear armageddon that was the bottom lol, really happy it happened though. What we saw with the tory party c0ckup, sterling collapse, rate hikes, inflation, covid etc... all of this brought IAG to 90c, also the war in Ukraine jesus fkin christ. During all of this, I mentioned earnings were going to be great, which is going to be true this week... IAG literally gave once in a lifetime opportunity IMO, it's still there tbh and immensely undervalued.
We're getting Dems in the US opting for a diplomatic solution to the war in Ukraine which is a huge shift in events. So I think it's up up and away from here, we will of course get people selling for profit but I think we're going to have more stability.
Ps. I don't think Rishi is a bad candidate, he cant be worse than Truss and Bojo right... best we get in the current environment. At least jacob rees mugg resigned, made me very happy lol.
Have a good one peeps.
Dishy rishi, man with no working class mates :(, billionaire conservative who is the man of the top 1%, wife using tax havens, good days ahead. It all started with making the chicken tikka masala the British national dish, first they took jaguar/landrover... joooooooooooooking :D
Anyhow, lets get decent earnings and settle above £1.30. Market is rallying nicely, betcha when we release earnings it will be like hell for US markets with some bs news headline lol
I said before I was wrong on the Ukraine situation... well I was just a bit late, I was expecting west to push for diplomacy earlier. Lets see how this unfolds, extremely extremely extremely important news! Shift in dynamics. Have a great evening!
Midterms coming :), regardless though I see a pivot soon. Look at the JPY crisis currently underway, swap lines can only work for so long before Japan starts unloading US debt.
As for IAG, we're doing ok I think, the turmoil in the last few weeks was due to the idiots in charge of the gov, what an absolute mess.
Next week southwest has earnings and we have earnings, should be great. American airlines, united and delta are rallying today.
I would have liked us to hit 130 prior to earnings and rally from there but it is what it is, literally the universe is against us -_-
Have a great weekend.
Scotty AAL has a really high short interest relative to the other US airliners. So it's a battle now and the shorts are shtting it. Some activists on it too. I presume a lot of naked shorts.
Anyhow, this is temporary... what investors are looking at are the numbers which were fantastic. Airliners are showing strong recovery and demand even though there is a recession and high interest rates, they are showing to be very resilient.
I agree 100% we need a general election. This labour is different though. Starmer is centre right. I don't think the markets would necessarily rally on Starmer as PM but it shouldn't bother it, at the very least as you mentioned we should have some stability.
Rishi is PM next though as the looks of it. Rishi could be dangerous for Starmer.
20-Oct-2022 13:53:49 - AMERICAN AIRLINES CEO SAYS WE ARE HIRING MORE PILOTS THIS YEAR THAN EVER IN OUR HISTORY!
20-Oct-2022 13:45:52 - AMERICAN AIRLINES CEO SAYS WE REMAIN VERY ENCOURAGED BY THE CONTINUED STRENGTH IN DEMAND AND THE TRENDS WE'RE SEEING ACROSS THE BUSINESS
20-Oct-2022 13:46:37 - AMERICAN AIRLINES CFO SAYS SEE NO SIGN OF DEMAND SLOWING
20-Oct-2022 13:47:54 - AMERICAN AIRLINES CFO SAYS WE EXPECT TO RECEIVE 5 787S IN THE REMAINDER OF THIS YEAR AND 4 IN THE FIRST HALF OF 2023
20-Oct-2022 13:49:08 - AMERICAN AIRLINES CFO SAYS WE NOW EXPECT TO TAKE DELIVERY OF 19 737 MAX IN 2023 COMPARED TO THE 27 DELIVERIES THAT WE WERE PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED
20-Oct-2022 13:51:31 - AMERICAN AIRLINES CFO SAYS WE EXPECT OUR 2023 CAPACITY WILL BE BETWEEN 95% AND 100% OF 2019 LEVELS
20-Oct-2022 13:52:52 - AMERICAN AIRLINES CFO SAYS WE WILL CONTINUE TO SIZE THE AIRLINE FOR THE RESOURCES WE HAVE WITH A FOCUS ON RELIABILITY AND PROFITABILITY