Member Info for WesStocks

IAG - TRADING DURING Q3 HAS BEEN BETTER THAN EXPECTED DUE TO PASSENGER REVENUE STRENGTH

IAG - NOW EXPECT PRE-EXCEPTIONAL OPERATING PROFIT FOR Q3 TO BE IN REGION OF EUR 1.2 BILLION

IAG: FORWARD BOOKINGS REMAIN AT EXPECTED LEVELS FOR TIME OF YEAR

IAG - FORWARD BOOKINGS REMAIN AT EXPECTED LEVELS FOR TIME OF YEAR, WITH NO INDICATION OF WEAKNESS

IAG - FOURTH QUARTER EXPECTATIONS REMAIN UNCHANGED

Oct 13 (Reuters) - British Airways-owner IAG ICAG.L reported better than expected results for its key summer period due to strong demand and pricing and said that future bookings were not showing any signs of weakness, pushing its shares up as much as 10%.

The company, which also operates the Iberia, Vueling and Aer Lingus airlines, said it expects pre-exceptional operating profit to be in the region of 1.2 billion euros ($1.17 billion) for the three months ended Sept. 30, compared with a loss during the pandemic last year.

European airline stocks have plunged over the last six months over worries that rising household bills will dampen appetite for travel, but IAG said it was confident on future demand.

"Forward bookings remain at expected levels for the time of year, with no indication of weakness, and accordingly our fourth quarter expectations remain unchanged as of today," the group said in a statement.

Guess who was screaming strong buy and 135p year end target. Jokes aside this was very predictable lol.

Have a great day! Sit back and wait for 2023 summer.

Fed pivot incoming.

AAL up almost 6% premarket. Well my airline basket is doing really great to be honest. I did state that money flow into airlines have been positive on the down turn, indicating institutions are loading... like I get it a lot of uncertainty but it's not like we haven't had this before and airlines are at ATL literally, they're forecasting great numbers and the pandemic burden is literally over in most cases.

IAG getting upgraded by many brokers!

Ps. More about the situation in Ukraine, it seems like everyone is frustrated with Zelensky calling for preemptive nuclear strikes against Russia, there's now for the first time discussions between US/Russia about a peace deal. This war isn't clearly benefiting the west as they thought because ties between EU/US for the first time are weakening, I think it was the French econ minister stated the US cannot leave this war more economically dominant and EU suffers more, he was talking about the LNG arbitrage going on etc...

There are protests all over asking for a end.

Anyhow, 2023 summer is going to be great!! I will try to post a more detailed analysis sometime soon.

Fitch also reiterated it's long term IDR at A+ for Lehman Brothers and said there was no credit risk days before collapse. Their current rating for BA indicates, fuel costs, covid related issues (supply shock/travel restriction), operational disruptions & strong dollar etc (this will change soon, not to worry, terminal rate is approaching and FED to pivot soon or they will break the entire emerging markets and cause major defaults on US bonds, causing systemic risk for US markets/economy)... so basically stuff that is already priced in, however they do hint BA will be very competitive and there is pent up demand for travel, which I believe is not priced in because the former (covid etc) for sure is priced in lol... duh!

Usually these credit agencies work for banks etc, it's like a cycle of speculation... clearly they have orders from someone to cause some doubt so they can build a large position. They do this at bottoms and at tops they say AAAAAAAAAAAA+ BUY BUY BUY so they can unload - you have to read in between the lines :)

Anyhow... more recent news:

International Consolidated Airlines Group ( LON:IAG - Get Rating )received a GBX 180 ($2.17) price target from research analysts at Sanford C. Bernstein in a report released on Tuesday, Borsen Zeitung reports. Sanford C. Bernstein's price objective points to a potential upside of 80.52% from the company's previous close.

IAG has been the topic of a number of other research reports. The Goldman Sachs Group set a GBX 136 ($1.64) target price on shares of International Consolidated Airlines Group in a report on Monday, August 1st. HSBC set a GBX 120 ($1.45) target price on shares of International Consolidated Airlines Group in a report on Thursday, July 7th. UBS Group set a GBX 170 ($2.05) price target on International Consolidated Airlines Group in a report on Tuesday, August 9th. Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft set a GBX 140 ($1.69) price objective on International Consolidated Airlines Group in a report on Monday, August 1st. Finally, set a GBX 140 ($1.69) target price on International Consolidated Airlines Group in a research note on Monday, August 1st. Four analysts have rated the stock with a hold rating and three have given a buy rating to the company's stock. According to data from MarketBeat.com, International Consolidated Airlines Group has an average rating of "Hold" and a consensus target price of GBX 173.77 ($2.10).

This is going to agitate Washington. They apparently told their Saudi counterparts that a cut would not be desired with the current economic conditions. Which also translates to, winter is coming, mid-terms are coming... ffs. Criticism against laundering money through Ukraine by way of aid is increasing by the day. Either we get a deal (maybe a temporary ceasefire) or a vast escalation, worrying tbh. America is about to go Leroy Jenkins lol. Usually airlines hedge for such circumstances and price fluctuations during winter months, should not be a big deal for IAG.

Most challenges limiting airlines are now practically over, we will most likely see a vast travel boom this winter and especially next summer. Airports and airlines are also eliminating staffing issues and are putting measures in place to become more resilient. Adding around 90s was great imho.

ADP Jobs report was better than expected and showed a jump in Sept - I believe this secures the expectations that the FED will hike 75pts in the next meeting. Honest opinion, I was expecting a decent drop and it seems like inflation may have not been taming down.

Liz's speech was a face palm moment, literally bit my fist listening to her.

Hi AC, I disagree with the last part of your statement. Market is forward looking and generally bottoms few months prior to the end of rate hikes.

Historically speaking, stocks gave a median return of 4% during the last six months of a Fed rate-hiking cycle, and investors could play the market with a 65% win-ratio.

FEDs projections also show that 2023 is when they start easing, they wouldn't want to keep the rates too high for too long and cause long term effects on the economy. I expect a 75 pt hike during Nov 2nd meeting then followed by a 50 and 25pt. Or we could go 50, 25 & 25 depending on the CPI numbers eoy. Odds of a 50 pt hike next meeting went up considerably too.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-typically-bottoms-before-the-end-of-a-fed-rate-hike-cycle-heres-how-to-make-that-bet-pay-off-11661850439

Hi Todd, how did you come to the 50p figure, don't be that harsh... I know Liz is PM and all but it's going to be better... hopefully :)? I believe we're totally undervalued, I'm constantly adding. The constraints holding airlines back are slowly but surely going away. Yes we're in negative growth territory but historically since the great depression and from ww1 in 1919 on average we've had ~3qtrs of negative growth before the economy recovered. The market has never been more liquid than what it currently is, unemployment (we're at record high vacancies), mortgage foreclosure rates are at historically low levels; industrial,manufacturing,services and retail sectors seem to be resilient too.

Don't forget the £1 region isn't the top, it's like a historic low comparatively to more severe economic downturns. We had a covid pandemic which took a tremendous toll on airlines and the travel industry in general. Inflation primarily caused by a energy and supply chain shock has peaked, we had oil come down from $120 to ~$75 (fuel costs are going to drastically drop because this is a hedging opportunity). Central banks are performing one of the most aggressive QTs in history (and have almost reached terminal rate where they will pivot), which is also impacting inflation (it's a lagging indicator so we should see a sharp drop in the coming months), as you heard from Fed's speech today and their notes they expect inflation to moderately come down in 2023.

My main point being is that the market is forward looking and it generally is priced in tbh :), you buy the expectation.

As for the war in Ukraine, I've generally been wrong about that, I expected a peace deal earlier but it seems like a few in Washington/London just don't want it yet. But as for the general public, we even saw Elon Musk today propose a peace solution, which for the amount of stick I give him is fairly reasonable and makes sense.

Polls in Germany also show they believe the US sabotaged the pipelines and are against further aid to Ukraine and want normalisation to occur sooner rather than later.

I personally believe a fair value for IAG today would be around £1.35+ (like 45% upside), in 3-5 years time without the war in Ukraine I see its value being upwards of £3!

HSBC also upgraded their rating today from hold to a buy, with a £1.3 PT, which is close to mine in the short term. I base this of fundamental analysis and numerous valuation models. I'll only post FY23 analysis, Rev: 25.788bn, net income: 899.49MM, EBIT: 1.912bn, EBITDA: 4.081bn etcetc (mean values in euros). Also for the segments they will be 4.92% cargo, 90.28% passenger and res is other :).

All are estimates. This is NOT financial advice :) Bobbins2 thanks, we all need a laugh sometimes xD

Aaaand good night, peace.

It's priced in... everything is priced in :), I did say to you guys soon the hiking will stop and it's about now where you buy, especially profitable companies like IAG with strong cash positions.

Famous reddit post :D

Don't even ask the question. The answer is yes, it's priced in. Think Amazon will beat the next earnings? That's already been priced in. You work at the drive thru for Mickey D's and found out that the burgers are made of human meat? Priced in. You think insiders don't already know that? The market is an all powerful, all encompassing being that knows the very inner workings of your subconscious before you were even born. Your very existence was priced in decades ago when the market was valuing Standard Oil's expected future earnings based on population growth that would lead to your birth, what age you would get a car, how many times you would drive your car every week, how many times you take the bus/train, etc. Anything you can think of has already been priced in, even the things you aren't thinking of. You have no original thoughts. Your consciousness is just an illusion, a product of the omniscent market. Free will is a myth. The market sees all, knows all and will be there from the beginning of time until the end of the universe (the market has already priced in the heat death of the universe). So please, before you make a post on wsb asking whether AAPL has priced in earpods 11 sales or whatever, know that it has already been priced in and don't ask such a dumb fcking question again.

Need I say anymore. It's like watching monty python.

The main reason IAG is here is due to speculation, flow is still positive. IAG has a strong cash position and is looking to return to profit on all its subsidiaries in 2022. Travel demand is soaring, and central banks can only hike to a certain extent, the FED is still insisting on its soft landing, this is a great indication that they will pivot and slow down soon; they also recently mentioned they reached a terminal rate and are worried they will overdo it. Overshooting the funds rate causes far worse effects in the economy and greatly reduces the prospects of future growth.

So my point is, this is kind of the spot you buy (IMO). Of course it will be a tough winter through energy shortages but Russia did mention today they're ready to continue supplying energy to the EU. Covid, which was the the biggest burden to airlines is finally over, no more global restrictions on travel, this will definitely be reflected in the stock price soon, market is forward thinking and expectations will kick in soon, before next summer. - Currently everyone is expecting a apocalypse, which is why we're here :)

Additionally the biggest expense on airlines, which is fuel, is tumbling rapidly. By march 2023, we could see below $70/barrel for crude oil.

Lol they said too big to fail about lehman too tbh... lol if they go insolvent tomorrow I'm going to look the right fool. The two banks have a combined AUM of probably over 3-4trillion, that's magnitudes higher than Lehman. The banks have a lot of exposure across the entire western hemisphere so it could cause a cascade of bankruptcies, for this reason I'm sure they will prevent it, this is unnecessary speculation, just check the rate of number of consumers with new foreclosures and bankruptcies... fraction of what it was in GFC.

What's serious is the UK economy though, cost of gov borrowing at record rates, we're in totally in the sht. Listening to Liz's recent interviews, jesus fking christ, like dumb and dumber, she's actually doing more harm through talking, investors are losing confidence due to her intelligence.

I had a £1.35 target for IAG by eoy, after listening to Liz I cut my target to £0, could go negative for derivative/margin folks :).

GL and stay well.

Good annotation on the fiscal policy Liz announced: https://kamikwasi.tax/

Exactly, most of my friends from the states say the same thing, "this isn't our war" etc, they're very aware of the costs this time, after a $3trillion+ disaster in Afghanistan.

There is no way in hell Biden is winning the next election lol, I would be surprised if he lives till then :). For the midterms majority of the Americans will be mad about the mortgage rates, food and energy costs... tbh petrol has come down quite a bit there but of course at the cost of a recession.

For US politicians I think the war in Ukraine is a bipartisan thing, they would prefer weakening Russia and the EU without the expense of their own men (so no backlash at home in terms of voters), so it's practically a win win. The more it goes the better it is for them, which I have been saying from the start, the war was a complete failure on behalf of Russia, diplomacy is the only solution, take a page out the US play book of orchestrating coups :) and causing provocation around the globe, most recently in Taiwan with Pelosi visit, military exercise and weapon aid, all while saying we believe in the one China agreement and US foreign policy hasn't changed.

Lets see how this annexation is going to play out.

But the US isn't lol. I told you guys right, earlier in the war apparently the Russian and Ukrainian envoys came really close to a peace agreement, was practically done according to reports from both Russian/Ukrainian sides and Turkey... however, US & UK disagreed :) MOAR WEAPONS, you need to launder the money somehow. US now sent equivalent to almost Russia's entire military expenditure for two years...

Liz is by far our most stupid PM. It would be interesting to see her go through one of those primate cognition/intelligence studies.

To be honest Liz and her team aren't really sophisticated to understand this strategy, that's why they're not really bothered when the IMF, BoE and even the most right-wing US strategists and economists are shocked and warning them for being irresponsible and reckless.

Meanwhile Germany is saying we will not go down the route of the UK and today announced a $200bn stabilisation fund to curb the effects of inflation and energy prices on people. This is the same Germany who just had their gas lines from Russia sabotaged and are very screwed in terms of energy... it goes to show how their leaders put their people first.

***Do you guys know US is making a over $200mil profit per LNG shipment to the UK/EU :), the LNG arbitrage is insane (6-10x from US to UK/EU)... each transfer they make enough to buy a brand new tanker :D

And Liz's "thinktank bankers" who just announced an entire package for themselves, 2008 all over again... they will do it and get away with it, there is nothing we can do thanks to populism and media being controlled by few individuals/lobbyists! They cut spending for farmers and working class households while putting corporation and big banks first... just don't forget. They will fail of course, but don't forget!

https://scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/zidar/files/zidar_tcfw_jpe_2019.pdf

Just another rant sorry :) I still believe we will see £1.4-1.6 by mid to early next year, and 1.3 by eoy. We got the first pivot from BoE, soon the fed will pivot, they we're saying today they front-loaded the hikes, but lets see... I wonder at which point will they realise energy inflation can't be controlled by monetary policy, at least to a certain extent, max you can do is reduce demand... supply is with POOTIN :) They will be careful though overdoing the hikes could have massive implications with regards to many macroeconomic measures.

This is because they are chronically underfunded (in real terms) to make them less efficient and then to propose the solution of well it's not working so we must privatise them. Do you have any idea of the suffering middle class folks face in the US with healthcare cost. Being ill shouldn't put a person at a disadvantage in life, in most cases it isn't a fcking choice, no one wants to be ill! It's a basic human right to be looked after by the state you pay **** ton of tax too, if someone in your family is ill, they should be looked after too... this isn't being a cult of the NHS, this is simply the most effective and efficient solution.

Do you think the alternative is efficient by any means? It will actually make the country more poor! US spends like 3-4x more on admin cost and a fraction on long term healthcare when you compare it with any western nation. Why does one need to spend more to make a corporation more rich, but receive a worse and cheaper fcking service, you propose this as the solution?

Why should a child or a parent who has been unfortunate in life deal with the burden of over $500 per month diabetes costs (just one of many examples)... how is it that we manufacture the same medication in social states at 1/10 the price comparatively vs the US? Why is it that when they (US) spend almost 3x more than the OECD average and are lower on innovation vs Germany, Ireland, Netherlands etc in healthcare, or that their life expectancy is lowest in developed nations (actually comparable to/or lower than emerging markets in most cases)... that's efficiency? We had a great example of efficiency in energy spending too recently in the private sector... excess profits of $200bn+, huge gov borrowing and near collapse economy to feed a few wealthy individuals.

Funnily enough the energy case even the private firms said they will be ok with windfall tax and that it wouldn't effect future investment in the UK... :)

When most Americans are actually trying to fight their healthcare system and promote help with healthcare costs it's amazing we're moving backwards.

Not 350bn but 37bn -__- just to reiterate, and now I'm gone byebye

£37 billion lol sorry typo

Money flow is actually positive since now so someone is using this opportunity to load shares.

The current price action is thanks to the turmoil on the GILT market and GBP. They put the entire UK economy in jeopardy, BofA was one of the few remaining banks today that also bet against the pound to drop to parity vs the dollar.

In the last year the pound lost almost 27%, this is insane, that's our buying power gone folks. Now the BOE will effectively print more money to allow for an orderly drop in the bond prices, this means that they will be at a loss... well guess what the government indemnifies the BOE for any losses per the asset purchase facility. So these losses again will be a burden to the tax payer on top of the excess profits of energy firms, tax cuts of over £45bn per year for the wealthy, less corporation tax... etc etc.

Did I mention they used ~£350bn for a covid app that didn't work, Ireland built the same app for 700k euro and France built it for 7 mil. Do you remember the 40 new hospitals they promised by 2030... that was going to cost £3.7bn, hopefully that gives you a gauge of the wealth they stole during the pandemic and they will continue to steal from us.

This collapse of the pound is deliberate to make it cheaper for the US to buy out the NHS, the same US who only thinks of their best interest and is taking the entire world into WW3. We think we're identical to Americans and all this fiscal reform is a page out Reagan's book, well Reagan failed with his fiscal policies causing a massive recession and made the majority working class folk poor as dirt while pushing unemployment to almost 11%. He cut social spending (medicare, medicaid), cut social programs, cut taxes and poured money in private firms. This is exactly where we're heading.

My point is that you have one fcking vote, so make it count. Don't forget what they stole, this is the biggest wealth shift ever. Starmer may not be the answer but at this point we have no option.

Sorry for the rant. :)

Just when you think stupidity has peaked... our leaders never fail to disappoint in this regard. BOE has started a yield curve control measure like the Japanese, they will buy bonds, UNLIMITED BIDS HERE WE COME. It's funny how all this is unfolding, if the government doesn't do a uturn asap we could see the collapse of the entire UK economy in a very short space of time.

Sadly the opposition leader is also a very lost man... we're besieged with idiocracy. We need uncle sam to intervene at this point, it's all out of our control.