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PDMSP,
" Worried? Off ya pop."
There's a difference between worry and panic. I think I'll hang in here a bit longer, if it's OK with you.
Iamnotananalyst, I really don’t think it matters that few PIs Sell. Who cares? Not me. This has gone further than a little spoofy Oiler driven by prayers and vain hope and sentiment. There is a world class discovery of epic proportions at West Newton. I’ve chucked my buttons in with the 24,000,000 others recently added and that’s where my buttons are staying. Moaning on here so that Bert from Barnsley takes a few buttons out of the pot is not going to make one bit of difference. I could sell all my £250k holding here next week and I doubt the share price would even move. The market is sat on hands waiting for the next move. So am I. GLA.
It probably doesn't matter to the share price no, but it does matter to those individual PIs and they are mostly the people who post here!
I'm not bothered about moaning or others selling I'm just here to get others' thoughts and reflections in mine. Such that my decision making is improved. Now do tell, what is the next move then that we're waiting for? Is it EWT at WN in December?
Well, according to RBD's project Wallace plan the EWT is due q4 with WNB1 late q1 20. However just a matter of a few weeks later the Rathlin liason committee group are told that those time frames are unlikely. Conflicting info from partners which is very annoying to me.
Also just like many others I'm disappointed that RBD are not keeping us up to date & whilst optimistic I'm concerned at their willingness to throw the kitchen sink at the project before the EWT is done.
WN is a huge discovery. There are technical, financial and other issues to sort. There are multiple partners who all need to be aligned. And as plans change then there are regulators and locals to keep onside.
A few on here are being unreasonably impatient.
Wn doesn't bother in delays. Big investors were happy to invest. I just wish we could get some updates on parta and cali. These two projects have been very quiet.
It’s all about West Newton now, although I agree, a Parta update would be welcome. It’s becoming clear that the silence from the RBD BoD and hold up of progress on WN is largely due to financial shenanigans with the other partners, UJO and Humber having to raise finance to stay at the West Newton table. I’d say it will al come out in the wash next week then possibly soon after we should start to get some RNS updates re the testing program going forward and see some action at WN.
The caveat here is whether or not the granting of the pump permit will be held up until after the general election on 12/12. The council obviously know that their local voting electorate will be split on the divisive issue of having an oil discovery exploited in their constituency and won’t want to **** off the electorate at this sensitive time when blood pressures are a bit higher than normal over other polarizing issues. Hopefully we’ll know more next week.
Completely agree. My biggest gripe is when I invested early last year was s and s said many projects and if one fails then they move on. Wick drill proved that and probably Coulter as well, bod disagree but loads more funds reqd to prove it). S and s now with the recent placing all in on wn. I understand with recent placing, big players see a up something but I think good or bad were now to heavy in one project
PDMSP,
"There is a world class discovery of epic proportions at West Newton."
I'm afraid you have no justification yet for saying such a thing. An oilfield which will not flow naturally is hard to describe as 'world class', no matter what its volumetric extent may be. We don't yet know the oil's 'quality' (API rating), nor how permeable the formation is, ie ability to allow flow, and which would be empirically established through an EWT. We've been told the Kirkham is an oil formation with a gas cap. Is the gas cap the pressure 'drive mechanism' (obviously not high pressure) ? If so, the gas won't be sold at market, in fact any gas released by produced oil will probably have to be reinjected.
" I’ve chucked my buttons in with the 24,000,000 others recently added and that’s where my buttons are staying. Moaning on here so that Bert from Barnsley takes a few buttons out of the pot is not going to make one bit of difference."
I'm personally rather responsible for having started this particular thread. And I didn't do so with the intention of trying to influence anybody in regard to their investment strategy. Instead, to bring up some technical questions to which I think we shareholders deserve some answers, or at least answers for which the data may already be available. The reason I raise such questions here on a public BB is that I live in a place where I nobody else to talk about these things with, and I think the purpose of this BB is for such discussion anyway. Plus I'd probably be wasting my time emailing any of the companies concerned with such questions, because I might very well not receive a reply.
Why would anyone invest 16m on your post
The information we have pointing to a world class discovery at West Newton is in the RNS with volumetrics.
Anything said at a community liaison meeting by Rathlin representatives has a purpose and an agenda. That agenda being to keep things tranquil and calm in the community. Rathlin are not a public listed limited company and so they can tell as many porkie pies as they like. None of it adds up because it’s full of porkies. Nobody chucks £16,000,000 into a tight oil formation that won’t flow.
PDMSP,
"The information we have pointing to a world class discovery at West Newton is in the RNS with volumetrics. "
I beg to differ with you on that statement. Purely on a technical basis, and I think you have some knowledge of such technicalities.
I also beg to differ with the idea that people don't invest 16 million into a possibly dead-end project. W.Newton is obviously not a 'dry hole', but it hasn't flowed oil yet, and the 'revised' EWT obviously isn't progressing on the ground yet, otherwise we'd have got wind of it from the unwashed tree-huggers.
Let's face it, the Bowland Shale rivals anything to be found in the USA Permian, and Cuadrilla, Igas, and others have poured tens of millions into it, via their shareholders. And what's happened? End of the line, due to politics, nimbys, and everything else.
W.Newton is 'conventional', so no fracking' (maybe), so why not go ahead as previously announced? EWT.
Plus as others have pointed out, Cali seems to be off the radar for now, and Romania doesn't appear to be progressing, neither. And the SP is not good.
It's not so much a question of impatience, more one of feeling frustrated that the company seems to be loosing momentum.
You’re missing the point ADUK. I think recent events points to the fact that it has flowed. You keep banging on claiming that it hasn’t flowed. Point me to the paragraph in the RNS where we have been told it didn’t flow.
I don't think that adoubleuk is disputing the fact that oil will flow at WN, but simply that we have no hard data still to quantify the size of the discovery yet.
Really? Just an RNS saying minimum of 146 Million barrels of oil in place.
From the RNS of 11/11/19, less than a week ago...
“In the United Kingdom, the Zechstein reservoirs of the Southern Permian Basin have been explored and produced largely in the offshore Southern North Sea, with limited exploration in the immediately neighbouring onshore. They have, by contrast, been extensively and successfully explored and produced in the Netherlands, Germany and Poland, providing multiple analogues to West Newton.”
Base Case:
o Liquids: 146.4 million barrels ("mmbbl") of oil initially in-place ("OIIP");
o Gas: 211.5 billion cubic feet ("bcf") of gas initially in-place ("GIIP")
PDMSP,
" Point me to the paragraph in the RNS where we have been told it didn’t flow."
I can't, for the simple reason that the RNS makes no mention of the brief EWT attempt whatsoever. Which I feel is significant in itself.
Instead, I gleaned that implied knowledge from those 'Community meeting notes' that you yourself posted here, and for which I thanked you. Unfortunately though, it's those very same notes which triggered the 'cautious' line of thinking I'm now following. Here are the two relevent paragraphs.
"He (TS) said that this underlines the challenges with exploration work and the discovery of the unknown – this positive outcome hadn’t been anticipated. TS said that this meant, initially, that the testing team were unable to lift all of the liquids in the well to surface in an effective manner. He said, in light of this, the team performed an N2 lift which involved the injection of nitrogen into the wellbore to try and lift all fluids to the surface.
He explained that this was permitted by the Environment Agency and is a tried and tested method of lifting liquids to surface as part of oil and gas field testing and production. He said that it is a safe system of operation. TS explained that wellbore fluids were recovered at the surface with associated gas but there was not enough energy in the reservoir to recover any reservoir fluids to surface, but that fluids were tagged someway up the wellbore."
It's the final phrase which is rather telling, even if it appears to contradict itself. But I can see in my (technical) mind's eye what occurred, even if those notes were maybe written by a non-oilfield person, maybe paraphrasing TS's actual words. Why and how can I make such an interpretation? Simple. Because I've seen the same thing actually happen, live, and in the field.
Yes, with CT (coiled tubing) in the hole and injecting nitrogen, gas (including the nitrogen, of course) may be seen at surface and flared. In fact, we saw a photo of the rather feeble flare, but have no proof that the picture actually came from WN. Quite probably N2 'lift' continued while reeling CT in uphole. But once at surface, natural flow didn't occur. Small amounts of fluid may have been recovered, but nothing which constitutes a valid 'sample'.
Oil certainly didn't flow and get burned, because that would nave been a large, smokey flame, and the tree-huggers would have reported it pdq.
I'm sorry, but it's you who opened Pandora's box by posting those 'community notes', not me. But it was on reading them that I suspected that we're not getting the full story.
Olderandwiser,
"I don't think that adoubleuk is disputing the fact that oil will flow at WN, but simply that we have no hard data still to quantify the size of the discovery yet."
No, I am certainly not stating that WN can't be persuaded to flow. Although my belief is that flowrates per well may be low. I posted the same many weeks ago, but that suspicion back then was based on nothing more than gut-feeling. Now, it includes the sparse further information we now appear to have.
But as regards the 'size of the discovery', PDMSP has pointed you to the relevent part of the RNS, which is based on Rathlin's 'Operator data' (ie it's not a 3rd-party CPR) and interpretation.
I am not disputing anything published in the RNS. Simply pointing out that two particular words are absent from it. 'Permeability', and 'flow'.
Unfortunately, we are all trying to cobble together an opinion on the current state of play at WN from the information released so far.
I do not have the oil tech knowledge of some on here, but my gut instinct still is to follow the money.
I am sure S&S pay for the services of the best professional O&G
analysts before throwing the kitchen sink at a project.
You also have to add to the mix why Rathlin shareholders have decided not to go ahead with the share swop with RBD!
I can only conclude they think more money is to be had by staying put, especially now Rathlin has funding.
PDMSP,
I ran out of space, earlier, but I'd like to expand a bit more on my interpretation. (This is tech stuff only). I wrote:
" Quite probably N2 'lift' continued while reeling CT in uphole. But once at surface, natural flow didn't occur. Small amounts of fluid may have been recovered, but nothing which constitutes a valid 'sample'."
OK, we've got CT at surface, maybe a little gas flare. So after waiting an unspecified amount of time for the well to 'come in' (which it doesn't), we then run CT back in the hole. Maybe do this a few times, to re-inject N2 and get things to flow. At a certain point the fluid level is reached. The technical word for this is 'tagging'. It's a word used in that 'community report'. Tagging the static fluid level is observed on the weight indicator gauge in the CT control cabin, possibly THE most important instrument there. And of course the depth-indicator tells you where, exactly, you've tagged.
Unfortunately, TS didn't mention the depth. It's unspecified.
This initial 'EWT' was performed 'rigless'. The rig was rigged-down and moved out, and the CT moved in. Standard procedure in the circumstances, or at least one 'standard variant'. The most economical, because why pay a rig dayrate when it's just going to be essentially standing by over the well, acting as nothing other than a glorified crane? Far cheaper to get an actual mobile crane to suspend the CT injector.
If the rig HAD been kept in place (now entering an imaginary scenario), CT could have been rigged-down, likewise the Xmas tree, BOP's rigged-up, the completion pulled, and an ESP completion run, once an ESP had been sourced. Rig down BOP's install tree, re-start the test using the pump.
But that's 'big boy' stuff. Expensive. And unbudgeted-for by Rathlin, who aren't exactly Exxon. So no blame that that's not what happened.
It ain't the end of the world, by any means. But first we appeared to be being told that EWT would be 'waiting on' a storage tank, more recent explanations mention an ESP, and now S & S aren't talking EWT at all, but instead drilling on WNB. Which is puzzling, to say the least.
Btw, it'd be really good if someone living in the area could go see if the WNB pad looks like it might be ready to go. The other day I mentioned those 'Drill or drop' freaks' article about the construction having been stalled. What I failed to notice was thet it was dated Nov 2018, not this year! Mea culpa, I hang my head in shame.
artyth,
" my gut instinct still is to follow the money"
Yes, and mine too. (Just to underline the fact that although I'm raising some questions here, they still shouldn't be construed as 'deramping'.) Just because the SP has fallen back to a worryingly low place, there's no way personally I'm selling right now, because it'd be a foolish thing to do. We haven't received any specific bad news of late, but we haven't received anything good, neither, so of course the SP will 'wander'.
I do think, though, that with the passage of time, S&S could do worse than to issue a sort of 'roundup status report' indicating exactly what's happening with the entire portfolio.
You see that thing recently where Kay Burley 'interviewed' an empty seat? Well those two brrmedia 'interviews' recently issued by RBD were the same, but the other way round. There was no interviewer, and anyone can just talk to a camera.
Not good enough.
Adouble,
I appreciate your in depth knowledge on the technicals and practicals which is a catalyst for further financial analysis.
Your “imaginary “ paragraph, could you comment further on such costs?
The increased storage has already been approved to my knowledge, why do we need further approval for an ESP which are widely utilised in the industry-shame that this had to be deduced from a Rathlin PR meeting.
Harry
A double, I agree, see my post yesterday 6.04.
Let’s hope the lack of precise information on all fronts is due to ‘ price sensitive activities’ throughout the portfolio.:)
Doubt it artyth S&S are proving themselvez rubbish on their pr with pi's. Many holders are becoming worried due to this, a bit of honesty fro. The BOD wouldn't go amiss with an update instead of appearing on stage managed platforms like BRR.