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Barryroe,looks like Europa are getting the funeral march like us.
"The licence extension application remains under review, Europa noted, and whilst it acknowledged that there can be no guarantee the extension will be granted, DECC has confirmed it is reviewing the application and that the licence will remain live, pending a decision on the application, regardless of how long it takes for DECC to make the decision."
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/amp/news/988732
From Malcy's blog regarding EOG and their application regarding Inishkea gas prospect:
The news is undoubtedly good today even though the Irish Government’s energy policy over recent years has been noticeably lacking in any knowledge of basic supply and demand energy economics seemingly thinking that power generation comes from a magic green pot of money. One other notable player in the Irish energy market has been able to drag this horse to water, hopefully it will realise the error of its ways.
Where do you reckon the children of the farmers live? Perhaps in the leafy suburbs of Dublin or the leafy suburbs of Cork, or how about Limerick or Galway? I might not live in the country but do you think I would ever vote for the Greens (not that I ever have!).
And how many of the Greens got elected on the first, second or third count in 2020 as compared to Sinn Fein where 25 were elected on the first count. If SF had run two candidates in those constituencies they would have won at least another 20 seats elected on the surplus of the winners and they would now be in power, albeit with one or other of Mutt and Jeff who currently run FF and FG and the Greens could take a hike.
The Greens will probably win as many seats as they did in 2011 when they won exactly none and Ryan got the boot - happy days.
Farmers don't vote for Greens anyway, so that's hardly much of a threat. Eight of their eleven seats are in the leafy suburbs of Dublin.
Rockhopper are suing Italy under the ICISD rules for damages relating to its oil well off the coast of Italy.
Per haps no-all, ps200306 is unaware that a new set of ICISD rules were published in June of this year and became active as of 1st July 2022.
These new rules, in my opinion, make it far easier for PVR to sue the Irish government for the non-development of Barryroe and I am sure Menton, who is far clever than our "know all" is aware of these rules and will be invoking them sooner hopefully than later to put PVR's case and get Ryan back in his box.
In fact, Ryan is up in arms with the Irish farmers about the level of emission cuts and it is rumoured if he does not get his way that he might just pull The Green Party out of the coalition and the farmers have warned that they will be gunning for The Greens at the next election.
https://theliberal.ie/ryan-theres-no-point-having-a-big-row-with-farmers-over-the-emissions-targets/
What a poor deluded fool with his nice warm house in Dundrum. A good load of slurry in his front garden might help him to smell the roses better.
I suspect the 90 days was plucked from his behind. Even if there was nothing sinister going on at DCCAE, can PVR survive this glacial rate of the permitting progress? 13 months to approve a simple seabed survey, now 15 months and counting on the lease undertaking, the appraisal drilling would be another permit required, field development probably several more. The level of bureaucracy is unmanageable, even if one didn't suspect Ryan was intentionally out to clobber it. And you can bet that Friends of the Irish Environment and other loony toons will be all over it like a rash at every stage, with vexatious litigation.
Well Menton said his piece ... without saying anything ... where's the 90 days ....
I see we had an RNS there today (RKH have just been granted, a two-year licence extension, to all the licences held in the North Falkland Basin, until 1 November 2024), donalb,.....to receive some positive news on barryroe oil field, would be good.
BW
Thanks Wraith, for the info & reasoning, my next few bob will buy into Rockhopper, short term for the compo & if happy, long term for the drills. And it looks like UK licencing will be much easier. DonalB
Think he's using this crisis as cover.Start knitting jumpers boys!
Against that statement, do you think he'll approve BROE for testing? Would he want to see it proved up, then financed and brought online? I don't think so.
There was breaking news on CNBC this morning saying that the Irish Energy Minister thinks that a 15% cut in gas usage will not be enough. I wonder what is his thinking behind this statement?
Good to see CRU speaking up and some significant points of reference that will certainly make major industries sit up and take notice and more pressure will be sure to follow for Ryan and the government,..GL S
The raw risk from inadequate resources was scored at 25 out of 25, according to the register that was released under FOI.
Concerns were also raised about the system for ensuring that demand for electricity was always met over the next three years.
The commission for regulating electricity warned the risk to security of supply of power in Ireland was "acute" amid fears of significant outages and collateral damage to Government policy on climate change.
The latest risk register for the Commission for Regulation of Utilities (CRU) scored challenges to supply at five out of five for impact, and four out of five for the likelihood of them happening.
This created a risk calculated at 20 out of 25 that electricity supply needs would not be met between now and 2025.
It warned of the potential for "loss of load expectation, expectation higher than target and/or significant events occurring during the period such as significant outages".
https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2022/0724/1311943-electricity-power-supply/
Your welcome, donalb,....when I last looked, Brent Crude was $103.20 per barrel,....at that price per barrel, with RKH existing Sea Lion discovery, plus all of their acreage (which now includes, the old DES & FOGL acreages),....RKH Sea Lion discovery, break even is $40 per barrel, from memory,....I now believe, even the highest arbitration award, that has been mentioned, could be dwarfed, by the potential value, of Sea Lion plus all of RKH acreages, (although, originally I bought back into RKH, for the arbitration result),....PVR are not in arbitration at present, therefore there is no potential arbitration award to consider,......the existing barryroe oil field, plus the potential gas & barryroe deep, has had Funds spent in good faith, on bringing it to the current day position.
BW
Thanks for that Wraith,
I had noted that you are one of the recent worthwhile commentators on both PVR & RKH.
I just contacted a friend in Geneva, who works in international arbitration, to see what he could "guesstimate", for their future pay-out. On a first look, it would seem that the quantum, would depend on multiple applicable laws & precedents, that influence the case. Further research pending.
Its not a typical expropriation case, where the state steals a valuable resource for their own benefit (though they could at a later date) & it may be argued that the Italian Republic is following "COP 22" conventions & newer Italian Laws & carbon reduction limits & other legally binding agreements.
However, that could also be "later day" thinking, as the licence was blocked before 2017.
The ICSID case is linked below, but is not very helpful on fine detail, except that the 4 arbitrators are a German/Irish, a Swiss (Geneva), a French (Geneva) & one Italian lady, that some talking heads accuse of delaying the eventual pay-out.
Can you imagine a quick & large pay-out during the current Italian political crisis & 60 day electoral period.
However, their contact details are all listed, so if Manmentia wants to harass them for 10X or 20X or 30X !!!!
https://icsid.worldbank.org/cases/case-database/case-detail?CaseNo=ARB/17/14
I also note that most "chatting" RKH shareholders are hoping for a 2-4 times the "Rockhopper Italia's" "34$M" loss in compensation, minus a 20-40%, no foal, no fee, legal representation cost & why not, maybe a pleasant +++ surprise.
And yes Menton, can do nothing, while the quantum of Rockhopper is pending, as it will create jurisprudence, for all "effective exploration cancellations" in the EU & more.
I doubt these senior arbitrators will bankrupt countries, trying to back pedal on previously awarded licences.
The RKH share price has has fallen from 10 ish to 7 ish during this "guaranteed award" period & the market cap is now £41M, a very far cry from some of the fantasist football $340M award.
Final question for Wraith,
Do you think PVR & RKH are worth more for their potential legal & financial remedies, that their exploration potential, or maybe what % combination of each ?
Merci & Slainte,
DonalB
Varadkar was being quite responsible with public finances in citing the money message veto with regards to Barryroe when he was Taoiseach .Ryan on the other hand is now being quite wreckless with regards any claim against the taxpayer.
"The rationale behind Article 17.2 is simple enough: while the Government does not, strictly speaking, control the legislative process, it does have overall responsibility for managing the State’s finances. Article 17.2 attempts to ensure prudence in the State’s finances by keeping spending on a coherent agenda and making sure that conflicting legislation and spending does not come about"
I would have thought, there are many eyes on the RKH arbitration case, which is a no win no fee,.....we (we are also holding RKH shareholdings) were expecting, the RKH arbitration result, by the end of July last year (2021),....if RKH had lost, I see no reason why, the defence held up the result last year,....I agree with you ("Menton will not sue",...before RKH arbitration result is known),.....it's why we also hold PVR & LOGP shareholdings.
BW
Article Says this - “Providence Resources, the Irish oil exploration company, hopes to receive a crucial licence from the government in the next 90 days so it can drill an appraisal well in the Barryroe oil field, its recently appointed executive chairman has said.”
Not expected but hopes. The way someone reads and makes their own personal meaning influences what they then believe. I’m staying invested for the time being.
Here's the article for you, just on the off chance you have something more substantial than childish insults to add:
https://www.businesspost.ie/news/providence-hopes-to-obtain-barryroe-licence-in-next-90-days/
To ps200306,
Oh mighty narcissist, isn't it nice to know that you are here to guide us and that you are always right. And isn't it nice to know, O wise one, that Larry Goodman was totally deluded when he bought about 160m of these useless shares. He should have consulted you first.
Long may you enlighten us poor deluded fools who bought these for about 1p and now laugh all the way to the bank, at your expense, as they sit at 4p.
This is all entirely revisionist. Menton said he expected the lease undertaking would be granted within 90 days ... not that we would find out about the Rockhopper case by then, not that he would be able to sue the government for compensation. Ninety days later there is no lease undertaking. Menton was wrong. And not just slightly wrong -- we know from media reports that Ryan has refused to discuss or even meet with anyone about the possibility of offshore hydrocarbon extraction. The most optimistic spin that can be put on it is that the civil servants at DCCAE told Menton that they would complete the bureacracy by now and that it would then be up to Ryan to sign off. The alternative is that Menton was just blustering and plucked the 90 day number out of thin air. Either way, he's still wrong and Barryroe is still in limbo with no indication of any progress.
Friends Of The Earth said in 2019 that it wasn't enough to change to LED lights but that it was time to change the law.Think thats the language we have to speak.Rockhopper case was taken on as no win no fee such was their lawyers confidence. Ryans ignoring us can only add to our case.
Menton's 90 days was a guesstimate on how long it would take for Rockhopper to be told how much compensation it was going to receive from Italy for the prohibition of not being allowed to develop the Ombrina Mare oil field.
Rockhopper have been informed they have won and that Italy has to pay compensation but the amount has not yet been decided and the arbitration board has 120 days to respond with the amount which gives them to the end of August unless they request a further extension of 60 days which is the limit.
So Menton, I am sure will make his move once the actual figure of compensation is disclosed and then we will see poor Ryan going wheelies on his bike.
Furthermore, Menton would not make a move, I am sure, until this pack of gobs****s return from their summer break and a potential High Court case in the autumn might brighten up our days.
I also note Ryan has now backed down on turf and he has backed down on the "national herd". How long before he backs down on Barryroe? And, by the way, there is so much dissention among the backbenchers that Varadkar might move him in December to perhaps "Agriculture". Now wouldn't that be interesting. You might find him in a slurry pit one day if that happened.
Mamms, agree with you about the lack of realism about what Ryan must or most not do. He is utterly, implacably opposed to offshore drilling. Even were he to grant the lease undertaking the government would be immediately sued by groups like Friends of the Irish Environment, who have litigated successfully in the past. And even though Ryan would be the minister getting sued he is in cahoots with these groups -- he applauded their previous win against him back in August 2020. Essentially we have a militant climate activist in government who doesn't give a damn about the economic stability of the country and will use other groups as proxies whenever he can't hold the line on his own. Stock up on rechargeable flashlights and a hand-cranked dynamo -- you're going to be needing them. The chances of PVR getting their lease are negligible as we are seeing with Menton's "90 days" expiring right now.
Can't blame you for not being excited ... I invested here nearly 40 years ago and numerous times in and out over the years ...and lost a packet. If they do get a licence and go ahead with an appraisal well etc etc .. and all is good , I agree it will be farmed our or sold on in full if they can find a buyer...