Proposed Directors of Tirupati Graphite explain why they have requisitioned an GM. Watch the video here.
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(Continuing from last post)
What does the future hold?
I can’t see Labour repeating the buyer subsidies of the past, which have failed to solve the problem, so what are the alternatives?
The noises I’m hearing, build to rent etc. point towards the ‘partnerships’ model. Will partnerships operate alongside the tradition builders or will it be a disruptor. Time will tell, but I’ve become wary of assuming a ‘normal’ recovery in the traditional builder’s model.
No doubt similar concerns are raised through each cycle, but perhaps this time will be different. I’d be interested to know if your considerations include any electoral impact.
I should add that I’m a strong advocate of a ‘Land Value Tax’ which shows how out of touch I am.
Hi Strictly
I only managed 20 minutes too. I’m an engineer and worked with statistics for many years and I thought much of the data shown seemed little more than background noise.
The focus seemed largely on housing transactions from the perspective of estate agents. Perhaps the scope expands further into the program.
Housing transactions reflect various factors within the economy. No doubt transaction volumes will wax and wane with occasional bursts in one direction or the other. To some degree these transactions will be reflected in house prices and opportunity (or not) for the traditional house builders.
I emphasis ‘traditional’ builders, which describe the models of builders like PSN, RED, TW., BWY, BDEV etc. We’ve had a few exchanges over the years, I appreciate your focus on the sector and detailed examination of the balance sheets. You’ll know the model:
Buy sufficient land to support anticipated near term build volumes at a level that overcomes the various obstacles put up by the planning system. For the large builders, given a solid balance sheet, the ability to overcome these issues presents a ‘moat’ over the smaller builders.
Build out on large sites to gain economies of scale and efficiency.
Sell the resulting product at c.20% profit margins.
Use the lack of housing (real or otherwise) to lobby government for buyer subsidies, Help to Buy etc.
When the profit margins are challenged, pull back on build volumes to ‘reflate’ future demand, and stimulate the political agenda in favour of additional buyer support.
It’s a model which has worked well for these builders over recent decades. But I’d argue that the resultant housing ‘shortages’ these cycles engender are damaging to the economy and the natural development of new families. (I nearly fell off my stool when I heard a Tory minister advocate ‘boomer generation’ holders of the larger properties add an annex for their children and their families. A reverse of the granny annex. Dire as the housing market might be for the ‘not haves’ I think that’s a level of desperation only a geriatric Tory minister could envisage)
Amongst the ‘haves’ – property owners or secure renters – housing doesn’t feature in their top 5 concerns, so the current government have conveniently – for their NIMBY constituents – been able to dodge the issue.
However, amongst the ‘have nots’ I’d guess housing features in the top 3 of their concerns, and it seems Labour see a clear electoral advantage in targeting housing.
(To be continued)
Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) raised its price target for Persimmon to 1,685p from 1,131p, for Taylor Wimpey to 145p from 115p, Berkeley to 4,516p from 3,920p and for Barratt to 576p from 483p.
LOL what is accurate these days
The yield of 16% shown on this page is out of date, it is actually around 5% this year at present. However, 5% is not bad in the market situation we have seen recently and there is every possibility of improvement now that interest rates have settled a bit.
That’s after Jeffries ups its target for Persimmon to £17.06 the other day 😊
Jefferies raises Persimmon to 'buy' (hold) - price target 1,706 (1,181) pence
Morning Foxh0le, Morgan Stanley double-upgraded Persimmon to 'overweight' from 'underweight' and hiked the price target to 1,685p from 1,131p.
I heard on Bloomberg TV this morning that Morgan Stanley has upgraded ratings on housebuilders with PSN the biggest gainer. Not sure on price though, anyone know?
Strictly,
Thank you for the link & your HB input.
Appreciated!
ATB
It's fairly simple, if it goes up from here I'm happy, if it goes down I'll buy some more
If you find that peculiar, id say that was peculiar
Ps Strictly,
"Good to see the stats show back and encouraging figures for the start to the year?"
...............................
Crossley,
Yes, I had noticed that ~ I think I'll put out an APB about it on the blog and, for anyone interested, here's a link below....
I watched the first twenty minutes or so ~ that's about as far as I usually get, it ain't exactly like watching "The Big Short" ~ and it was good to see pretty much the same message....
Which essentially was:
"Nothing to see here, move along"
Thus far, keeping tabs on this is like having a pint with Captain Hindsight and, in the several months I've been aware of it and watching it, it's been almost amusing to see the consternation of the doom mongers as the figures unfold months later from the likes on the Nationwide...
And long may it continue ~ not that we can take anything fron here for granted, mind....
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL8EVjavxiDxhquawPNmGzicGQ0Wr5BTtK
Strictly
Crossley,
My largest holding is TW
Followed by PSN, BWY & VTY.
I sold my BDEV shares 562p average (BDEV used to be second largest holding) however I think PSN have more legs particularly if some sort of incentive for First time buyers.
ATB
Ps Strictly,
Good to see the stats show back and encouraging figures for the start to the year?
Thanks Strictly
I’ll shall visit the blog later. I do not hold Crest currently. Have done twice but always seems to be short lived. I’m sticking to RDW, BWY, Wimps & here for the foreseeable. I moved out from here into Redrow back at the start of October which represents a couple of % gain as I liked the value. Re-invested here on the update for the reason I highlighted earlier
Thanks for the heads up all the same
Crossley,
Just as an update in case you didn't see it on the blog, since Crest's unscheduled profit warning I took advantage of a brief bounce on their share price to move my remaining holding of Crest into Redrow.
If all the listed additional items in the update are due to come off the revised "adjusted" net profit before tax figure of £41m then, by my calculation, that boils down to a reality check EPS of around just 4.5p.
Of course, I may have that wrong and have over-reserved for the grief, but I'm looking to be on the right side of things...
Given, as discussed elsewhere, that Crest might be cheap but they're also flaky, and bearing in mind that a few updates back they twiced bigged up this mooted final dividend of 11.5p but that the two most recent updates including the profit warning, funnily enough, made no mention of it, I'm not holding my breath on the notion that the prospective dividend will happen...
At least, not the full 11.5p.
And, especially if there's no dividend, I'm wondering what Mr Market might make of that..?
We should only have to wait until next Tuesday to find out, but I'm now watching from the sidelines and I did make a decent gain on selling the Crest shares ~ though I didn't do as well as I would have done if I'd not sold Bellway to buy Crest in the first place...!
But, such is life...
I'm now pushing three quarters in Redrow and the balance in Bellway, and that's it.
Strictly
I have bought back all my shares yesterday and ended up with extra 80 shares. Let's hope that the retrace is now done, and we'll see £15 soon. Good luck to everyone. Have a great day!
Armani,
May I ask, which other HB’s do you hold?
Next week we have Crst’s figures. Bit worried about that update tbh. Then three days running for Bdev, RDW & BWY beginning on 07/02. I’m looking for what RDW have to say on the 8th after stating in their last update they’d taken a hit and projected lower end of the 180-200m pre tax due to lower chain cancellations. If PSN’s update is relative then things should have improved there?
Best of luck whichever you hold
Denby69 RE: RICS
Yes, agree to a point but rest assured if the number was negative..... HB would have retraced at the open.
The whole market is head line news & mostly written by those who have large positions.
gl & ATB
I'm relatively bullish with PSN as with my other HB's shares
Added this morning to my trading shares.
Gla
Morning,
I know we’ve had a few negatives on the latest trading statement but for me it was very positive.I can’t believe this hasn’t been mentioned but for me, the main encouragement was the unit figures. H1 figures came in at 4249 and the full year at 9922. That gave us 5673 sales in H2 which represents a near 34% increase in H2 over H1. With a strong showing in Q4.
Can that momentum continue into 2024 or even improve as, hopefully, sentiment improves and rates continue to fall as we move through the year? Here’s how 2024 kicked off if interested (the first 30 minutes is sufficient if you indeed are)
Glad this is back…..
https://youtu.be/XE2zli8D2vk?si=2wiCFsr-H_9Ow1zd
1.ARMANI RICKS What a load of toss pots have you ever seen the disclaimer with any of their reports. their reports are not worth the paper they are written on lol
After starting this subject yesterday, I have read carefully the responses and done my own research. I took the plunge and added to my holding just before the close yesterday. Only time will tell if I have made the right decision , good luck to all that hold this stock. In the words of Del Boy, next year we could be millionaires, we can all dream.
The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) House Price Balance measures the percentage of surveyors reporting a house price increase in their designated area. A level above 0.0% indicates more surveyors reported a rise in prices; below indicates more reported a fall. The report is a leading indicator of house price inflation as surveyors have access to the latest price data.
RICS HOUSE PRICE INDEX
-30% Forecast -34% Previous -41%
Green & positive for House Builders..............lower number
£13 a share is not unrealistic at some point before inflation really starts to drop nearer 2% in 6/12 months time. After that I can only see it heading to £16-18