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Nemethv,
you think shorters have eua stocks?????
It's fairly simple, if it goes up from here I'm happy, if it goes down I'll buy some more
If you find that peculiar, id say that was peculiar
Eq_tbc, market makers are a *lot* smarter than the average PI, and consistently make money
I would argue the rise from 1,000 has no real fundamentals behind it, and the technicals (1w) seem to indicate a short term retrace to 1300 and maybe 1200 is likely
Common sense makes me think it will continue down well below 1000, but there does seem to be an inexplicable (to me at least) optimism. With this in mind I made a small (10k) buy at 1400 today and have a bigger limit buy set at 1300
As always we will see...
Good luck if you're holding, I do believe in 2-3 years this will be back up to 3000+
Sharefall,
I don't think the problems are anywhere near over
The lagged effect of the interest rate rises, then the sustained high levels will put increasing pressures on mortgage holders, more will be forced to sell up, more downward pressure on house prices, more first time buyers putting plans on hold, more pressure on house prices and so on
In my opinion housebuilders are at least a year, maybe two, from any sort of recovery (you can thank Andrew Bailey for that), and sps will go a lot lower
If you are a holder I wish you well, and I may well be wrong, we will find out over the next couple of years
A single transaction has a buyer and a seller, so there are always exactly the same numbers of buyers and sellers
Some transactions are reported as buys and some as sells, the aim is to try and identify whether the aggressor (as opposed to the initiator) is the buyer or seller by comparing the transaction price to the spread prices (which represent the limit order prices). Usually the initiator is a market maker, who has no particular interest in buying or selling, just making money on that spread, hence the attempt to identify the aggressor view
So, if you're a retail investor, best just to ignore it.....
Lorenzo,
Interesting. It is tricky, we all potentially see a minimum of £20 from here, so your argument holds true that buying now locks that in (if it pans out that way)
I still remember 2007-9 and believe we have a long way to go in the cycle, although the oddity for me was the softening from mid-2020 when fundamentals were looking pretty good
So on balance, with all the lag in the cycle (interest rates, house prices, housebuilders' fundamentals, share price) I can't see a recovery in the sp for at least a year, but like you will react to whatever happens. I do see a great opportunity here
FFO,
Not so fast there
"Anyway good luck to everyone in whichever companies they choose and I hope you all make a lot of money 👍"
What is your thinking on which hbs, buy in price, and potential exit?
Actually same question to you Lorenzo, although you're already long to a certain extent? (Ah so as not to miss the Spring!)
For the record I 100% agree with Trump (not Donald), and 100% disagree with Triumph
I think if you pay a guy half a million a year and tell him all you need to do is keep inflation below 2% to get a bonus, he's going to do anything, however idiotic and ruinous to the Economy, to get that bonus back. So even though he knows interest rates aren't going to work he's got to be seen to be doing something, no matter how daft
(and of course in a sense interest rates will work because inflation will come down anyway and he'll say ta da!)
Lorenzo,
"Several of you on here have stated that you believe that PSN will be worth £30 per share once the housing market has recovered. Can one of you please show me how you’ve arrived at this conclusion,"
I'm one of them, and to be fair, it's simply based on what happened last time to nearly all housebuilders, their sps tanked and then recovered to at least their previous values and more
I see your logic, but do you think the sp will recover to £25 and then stay static until the next house price crash?
Steve,
The British Bulls are technical analysts (and just candlesticks at that). They don't consider fundamentals
The candlesticks (aka sheep's entrails) may be pointing at a technical bounce, but the fundamentals are not looking that way imo (oh, and Mike's and others)
If you think this is the bottom then hold obviously, there are some of us who don't think it is
Steve,
Warren Buffet? I wish (assuming I'm one of the recent posters you're talking about)!
I know it's not nice ppl talking about a lower price if you are a holder, and I apologize
On the bright side there is a general consensus on the £30 target, less consensus on when that may be
Whether it goes lower before is up to each (potential) investor to decide for themselves
Whatever happens good luck in your investment, and on your work front
1875
I think that's a very good strategy!
*If* we're right on the return to £30 assumption then you're looking at a three bagger over whatever period that takes, you are exposed to a *little* more risk of failure - but I do think that's low
No-one knows what will actually happen, it is often best to invest on probability, if you think there is a 50% chance this is the bottom then invest 50% of what you want to invest in hb. I think the chance is much less that this is the bottom so I have nothing in, but they are both sound strategies imo
Deutscher,
I think most ppl believe the PSN fundamentals are sound, and that the housing market will recover to a new growth phase and when that happens the sp should recover to £30ish (not sure if Triumph1 does!)
Imo, the BoE's actions means this could be 3-5 years now
I did buy a small holding on the small chance that the sp was somewhere near the bottom about three months ago, but have now sold that for a small loss
I'm waiting for a lower price (£5 to£6) could be up to a year, but I do see potential of a 5-6 bagger
Triumph1,
Are you Andrew Bailey?
There can't be too many people who believe the current inflation is caused by excess Demand
When supply of fundamental goods like energy and food rise because of Brexit, COVID and Mr. Putin, raising interest rates is a daft thing to do. Inflation will fall of its own accord, but the interest rates will cause a house price crash, which you don't seem bothered about, but also another recession, perhaps you're not bothered about that either...
Gs
I tend to agree with the £3 buy price
The BoE's obsession with raising interest rates to combat inflation (which won't help at all) is now almost certain to cause a housing crash and a recession. HBs will hunker down, lay off all contractors and eliminate any non-essential costs, and then simply wait for an upturn. Almost certainly this will tank their SPs even further
It may not be as bad as £3, I will aim to buy in tranches from around £6 down
I am equally confident it will get back above £30 in the next cycle but I don't know when....
All in my opinion of course
Ikn
*If* you were 100% sure of your comment you would mortgage all your properties, sell everything you could, max out your credit cards, empty out all your cash accounts and buy EUA shares
Have you done this?
If not you're not really 100% sure are you? Yet you are portraying you are...
Ikn
"bod will deliver over the next few months"
Buy some more then...
Or did you mean:
bod will deliver over the next few months OR not
Peaky,
You've opened a short position?
If the BoE don't start reducing the base rate they will create a housing crash and a recession, this could go to 600, but I wouldn't bet on it....
@jcj07
Yeah, that's a good argument, normally house builders prices lag the housing market, PSN been falling for some time, even though the market has been very good
I have bought in on dips, buy holding at least 50% of funds I want to commit in case of a further drop
I think we're all thinking this will come good in the medium term
Cantbeleiveit,
I wouldn't rely on any answers here, including mine...
But since you ask, I *think* most people here, including me, believe the share price should return to at least 3,000 within a few years
For me though there is a risk it will drop to half the current level because of a housing crash or recession or both
Unfortunately the BoE is engineering another recession by raising interest rates whilst ppl are already suffering from high energy and food prices. Inflation's going to fall of its own accord, but the interest rates I'm afraid are very likely to do the real damage
Your choice....