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I have todays date noted down for something to be happening. Can someone remind me what it is?
The reason is that no trading of shares would be able to occur before trading commences at 0800 on Monday, after the obligatory RNS at 0700 on Monday morning. I have no opinion one way or the other whether an RNS will be out on Monday, as I don't have any for any other day of the week. The guidance says Q1. That's all we have for now.
Your analysis of the trading on Thursday was really interesting.
You say that news of funding would come out over a weekend for obvious reasons- can you explain your reasoning for this view. Surely any announcement would come out within a RNS in the normal way.
China - thanks for a detailed (unlike you, I'll not say verbose) response and analysis.
I don't cross-promote and posting this information elsewhere would deny the silent majority of LSE PRE visitors a first look at a significant "Pensana parallel" development. I'll take your point though and cut the length in future.
Not that I'm cross-promoting, but I see ARR is up 18% today, so there seems to be support coming out of their recent news....
Hogsnipe, A word of warning ~ ARR are either dreamers or pork pie sellers, they pumped hell out of La Paz and it has turned out to be a flop. ! A quick reality check :- According to their latest "News" release they have drilled a total of 9031 metres over both of their Wyoming "Project" areas. If we are very generous and assume an area of influence of 100m x 100m (10,000 BCM) for each metre of depth of drill hole and use an SG of 2.3 you end up with 207 Million tonnes and that's all. SO what are they basing the other 2.1 Billion tonnes of Indicated and Inferred resource on ????
Now any self respecting Geologist or Mining Engineer will tell you that it is stretching the friendship to classify a RE Resource higher than "Indicated" based on a 100m drill spacing and yet ARR are saying that this is Measured @ 200m spacing !!!! And if IT IS all Measured where on earth are they getting the other 2 Billion Tons from !!!!
FYI. The majority of Longonjo was drilled out at around 50m x 100 intervals; and 50 down to 25m with an average depth of 30m in the proposed Pit area. The drilling is still open on at least two sides and at depth, but Management are being honest enough not to speculate any Resource estimates beyond the drilling envelope.
A simple comparison of Longonjo:, and Halleck Creek at a 1,000ppm cutoff ~
LJ has a Total mineral Resource (measured, indicated and inferred) of 313Mt grading 14,300ppm REO. which contains 990,000t of NdPr; They drilled roughly 9,130 m in 300 holes to give an average depth of 30metres. ( Mostly the free dig shallow & weathered material )
Yet for roughly the SAME AMOUNT of drilling at Halleck Creek, ARR claim to have 207Mt grading 3720ppm; which they say contains just 187,000t of Magnetic RE's ! No comparison to LJ's is there really ?
Then , ARR have drilled down to 320metrs (which is probably one factor in calculating the large Inferred resource). Do you know how long it would take to mine down to that depth ? You might as well forget about anything below 120m when calculating a NPV(10) !
Lastly verbose cross promoting is considered bad form, a simple heads up and http reference would do..
News today from the Daily Mail about the USA Wheatland/Wyoming explorations JORC- claiming 2.3 BILLLION tones of RE deposits - Nd Pr easily accessible leach extractable with little radionuclide (U and Th) issues:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-13062273/rare-earth-minerals-wyoming-green-energy-material.html
Wildest dreams doesn't quite cover the scale of this - it's 53 timesbigger than the total RE reserves of China (44 million tons).
Here's the JORC pdf if you want details:
https://app.sharelinktechnologies.com/announcement/asx/99e2b33b2d8382c24ed859bbd35d1dbf
• February 2024 JORC Resource is 2.34 billion tonnes
• 1.42 billion tonnes of measured and indicated resources were estimated at a grade of 3,296 ppm TREO using a
1,000ppm TREO cut-off
• Economic and technical evaluation supports cut-off grade at 1,000ppm TREO based on the net-smelter return
• Successfully preconcentrated TREO at a 12:1 upgrade ratio, representing a ~200% increase from existing flowsheet
design using low cost, conventional Dense Medium Separation
• Deposit remains open at depth and along strike
• In-Situ Resources of 419 million tonnes with a TREO grade of 3,349 ppm exists within ARR controlled Wyoming state
mineral leases.
• Close to infrastructure and a highly skilled workforce.
• Potential for remarkable scalability, with 75% of mineralised zones yet to be drilled and deposit remaining open at
depth.
• Deposit is from surface with consistent grades throughout making it ideal for large scale, low-cost open pit mining.
• Breakthrough metallurgy and mineralogy results reduce capital and operating costs opening the path to early
production.
• Environmentally and socially responsible with low penalty elements.
Wow.
It's been a while since PRE market activity was suffciently interesting to merit some EXCEL analysis of trades.
Today's was a corker.
Buy:sell ratio - 5000:1
96% buy volume came after US open - mainly O trades
AT trades very steady - buying all day - not a single AT sell - bye bye day traders, pump & dumpers.....
O trades number roughly same as AT trades, but account for 79% of volume. AT buy volume only a quarter of O buy vol
Only 5 sells the whole day = 0.2% of volume
For an illiquid stock like PRE (by which I mean that most of us LTI's are stubbornly holding out for better days and will not sell before then), when all trades are buys, it suggests increased interest or demand for the stock, leading to a tightening of the spread as more buyers enter the market.
PRE spread fell 50% today.
So why read anything into a low-volume, 30 trades day?
It seems's unlikely that the Pensana's press briefings released over the past week or two have materially altered the situation with PRE, except to somewhat de-risk the Longonjo/mine/products side.
But if PRE were to get Longonjo financing in the bag (as Pensana say is expected in the coming weeks or months):
a) the news will leak - hey it's Africa isn't it?
b) the news would come out over a weekend for obvious reasons
So, it's going to be an interesting day tomorrow, and worth following the deals as they come in.
Just saying - this is opinion, not advice or recommendation, and you should do your own research and arrive at your own conclusions and actions.
What puzzles me is that in yesterdays trading there were more shares bought than sold and yet the SP dropped 11%.
I know sometimes buys are actually sells, but there is no obvious explanation for the drop.
No doubt the Rare Earth prices fixed low by China are to discourage new entrants, but selling at cost is crazy with the upcoming deficit.
Rare earth prices, which experienced a sharp decline in 2023, are expected to make a strong comeback later this year, driven by growing demand from the electric vehicle (EV) and wind power industries, coupled with a potential reduction in production quotas by China, the leading producer of rare earths. Analysts predict a resurgence in rare earth prices after a challenging year in 2023.
Rare earths, a group of 17 elements crucial for a wide range of applications, from military equipment and lasers to magnets used in EVs and consumer electronics, saw their prices reach a decade-high in 2022. However, these prices plummeted throughout 2023 due to increased production in China and sluggish demand growth, impacted by the country's uneven post-pandemic economic recovery.
According to data from Shanghai Metals Market (SMM), the price of praseodymium oxide, one of the most commonly used rare earth elements, fell by 34% in China during 2023. Similarly, terbium oxide and neodymium oxide hit their lowest levels since late 2020 by the end of the year.
Despite this downturn, analysts believe that further decreases in rare earth prices are limited, especially for neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) oxide, which is crucial for permanent magnets. SMM analyst Yang Jiawen pointed out that NdPr oxide prices experienced a 38% drop in 2023 and are currently hovering close to the production cost level.
Guolian Securities recently predicted an 800-metric-ton global deficit for NdPr oxide in 2024, a significant shift from the 6,600-ton surplus recorded in the previous year.
China, the dominant player in the rare earth industry, took notable steps in 2023 to control output. The country issued a third batch of rare earth output quotas, marking the first time it had done so within a single year since 2006. The total quota for the year reached a record high of 255,000 tons, reflecting a 21.4% increase compared to the previous year.
China's pivotal role in rare earth production cannot be overstated, as it accounts for 70% of global rare earth mining and a staggering 90% of refined output, according to data from the United States Geological Survey. The country has employed a quota system since 2006 to manage the supply of this strategic resource.
As the world continues its shift towards renewable energy and electric mobility, the demand for rare earth elements, particularly those used in magnets for EVs and wind turbines, is set to increase. With China potentially reducing production quotas, the global rare earth market appears poised for a resurgence in 2024, providing hope for a much-needed recovery after a challenging year.
https://www.finnewsnetwork.com.au/archives/finance_news_network448250.html?fbclid=IwAR1zWA94t6IgSKQSt-bNffd9ouplDD1mv1z0kJkCBak_EhMcReMyU9qrsD8
And your point is?
You sold, made a loss and are now indulging in some self justifying schadenfreud to make yourself feel better?
Amazing positive posts Lizard accompanied by an 11% drop in the share price. Very typical of the PRE MO.
NdPr oxide is likely to see an 800-metric-ton deficit globally in 2024, flipping from last year's 6 600-ton surplus, Guolian Securities wrote last month.
"We expect extra supply to be more or less cleared by end-2024, as demand catches up with supply through continually increasing electric vehicle sales and wind turbine production," said analyst Willis Thomas at CRU Group.
CHINA QUOTA
Last year, China issued a third batch of rare earth output quotas, the first time it issued a third set of quotas in a year since 2006, with the total quota for the year at a record high of 255,000 tons, up 21.4% from a year earlier.
However, China's quotas are expected to increase at a slower rate this year, at between 10% to 15%, analysts at information provider Baiinfo said in a research note.
"We do expect another increase in production quota for both mining and separation ... but not to the extent we have seen last year," said analyst Ross Embleton at Wood Mackenzie.
China, which accounts for 70% of rare earths mining and 90% of refined output, according to the United States Geological Survey, has controlled its supply of the strategic resource through the quota system since 2006
https://www.miningweekly.com/article/rare-earths-prices-seen-rebounding-in-second-half-of-2024---analysts-2024-02-05?fbclid=IwAR2LFvUBNDyvk4fahdobO6jovX3ip1LWGPd8X8SUZqcbxw6HCr96FiV5IpU
Angola's mining sector is expected to grow significantly in the coming years, as global demand for multiple minerals and rare earths is expected to grow in line with the growing demand for battery minerals and other strategic minerals. Currently, the exploration and production of diamonds represents around 90% of total mining revenue in Angola. However, this is expected to change. As the world continues to strive towards energy transition, battery minerals such as lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite, manganese, aluminium, tin and tantalum, among others, are expected to grow exponentially.
Mining company Rio Tinto signed an agreement last month in Luanda with the Angolan Government to acquire a concession to mine basic metals, including copper, cobalt, zinc, titanium and aluminium in the Angolan province of Moxico. This follows a similar agreement signed between the government of Angola and mining major Ivanhoe to prospect and develop copper in the provinces of Moxico and Cuando Cubango. In 2022, South Africa's De Beers Group signed a Mineral Investment Agreement with the government of Angola to re-enter the country and prospect for diamonds.
The aforementioned agreements attest to the significant interest in Angola's mining sector following recent industry reforms introduced by the government, under the leadership of His Excellency João Manuel Gonçalves Lourenço, President of the Republic of Angola.
https://energycapitalandpower.africa-newsroom.com/press/angolas-ministry-of-mineral-resources-oil-and-gas-mirempet-freiberg-university-of-mines-and-technology-start-scholarship-program?lang=en
Pieces are all falling into place from the DD RNS 21st January.
Tim George CEO commented "We are very pleased to receive this important product quality approval for the Longonjo mixed rare earth carbonate which follows extensive pilot plant test work in Perth, Western Australia. Our understanding is that there is expected to be a shortage of high quality, clean product coming onto the market in the near future, and this puts us in a strong position when looking to secure offtake arrangements."
Pensana puts pieces in place for integrated financing
https://youtu.be/93-F1p-kYA4
Strategic value driving Pensana's downstream ambitions
https://youtu.be/4Ntfc5pIN_I
Longonjo economics feed off infrastructure edge
https://www.mining-journal.com/resourcestocks/resourcestocks/4169643/longonjo-economics-feed-infrastructure-edge
Skulker - What was the Proactive Investors interview he did last Friday, or the webinar the week before, or the ALK interview he gave this week? Scotch mist?
January 30, 2024
At this meeting, the EEMAC will explore the role of rare earth minerals in transitional energy and electrification, including the potential development of derivatives products to offer price discovery and hedging opportunities in these markets. Additionally, a presentation and discussion on the federal prudential financial regulators proposed rules implementing Basel III and the implications for and impact on the derivatives market. Finally, the two EEMAC subcommittees will offer an update on their continued work related to traditional energy infrastructure and metals markets.
https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8855-24
Recognising that the market price for NdPr has long been jury-rigged by China, but especially since the outbreak of COVID in 2020, the US Defence department is moving towards overturning the whole critical metals pricing system. DARPA are going out to tender for an AI-based system of RE pricing to get round the supply chain barriers the US faces due to the current bent market, see:
https://www.mining.com/web/pentagon-plans-ai-based-program-to-estimate-prices-for-critical-minerals/
The DARPA program, known as Open Price Exploration for National Security (OPEN), is contracting the development of an independent AI-based pricing system which goes beyond the conventional economics of price-setting where prices are set by futures markets and pricing agencies reflecting what buyers are willing to pay, and sellers are willing to accept using supply, demand and other factors.
Its aim is nothing less than to “revolutionize the construction and dissemination of price, supply, and demand predictions and forecasts in critical materials markets.” It will do this by avoiding the problems of “opaque and flawed pricing data” that pose “substantial barriers to US commercial competition”, in order to “remove market opacity that can engender supply chain disruptions” by creating an AI-pricing model that would construct a metal’s “structural price” based on where and when it is produced, as well as labour, supply and other costs.
OPEN cited the LME’s 2022 nickel pricing fiasco as one of the “endogenous market dynamics and anti-competitive practices [that] can make futures markets a poor source of price information” as evidence of the need for a new pricing code.
Interestingly, several lithium, rare earths, and graphite miners have already begun charging premium prices for metals produced outside of China, suggesting that the current market price mechanisms for critical minerals are indeed no longer fit for purpose.
This will be introduced in three stages over the next 2 years, and could dramatically improve the investment case for Pensana, particularly regarding the Saltend plant.
Lol sorry wrong board:)
Lol. Recommend a read of DiscoDog's comment history.
And spread has widened too.
All the signs of the dump boys.
Last one from me.
I suspect FOMO, just hope it's not unfounded