George Frangeskides, Chairman at ALBA, explains why the Pilbara Lithium option ‘was too good to miss’. Watch the video here.
Given the amount of preparatory work, headworks, etc which has been detailed by the company and there being ample free cash on hand, obviously, the Board is comfortable with the current state of affairs, knowing the ASWF has pledged support in the form of a $15m loan, additional equity and is part of the debt funding syndicate.
I believe those who have spoken to PA have been told that the share price is not where management expects it to be.
Obviously, the Board has every confidence that the ASWF will fund the project's ongoing construction until the debt funding is finalised later this year, when needed, as per the construction timeline.
Those who have questioned management have been told that the debt funding will fall into place when needed and, importantly, it is anticipated that
offtake pricing will be with an ESG premium and done at a time when ndpr prices are trending higher, up 30% on recent lows, which will invariably
move the share price, with better economics to support the debt funding.
With all this war mongering and the need to replenish and build armaments apart from general industry, we all are aware, especially with the Uk Government’s recent upgrading of economic forecasts for the UK, the Government will be very keen to secure the vital ndpr refining at Saltend.
The company is in talks with both the UK & US Governments!
The future for Pensana is assured, in my opinion.
As to the share price, I am expecting the market makers to sell their recently acquire cheap shares into the announcement, so arm up, and buy on the opportunity while the shares are at a 5 year low IMO , knowing the market makers (MM) will be shaking the tree, frustrating the MM’s by buying, will send a clear message and they will likely change strategy and move to accelerate an upward trend when a higher share price will be surely be long overdue!
As far as the construction timeline requirements go, only $5m is said to be needed for May, the larger requirement for June’s construction payment would suggest that May / June for FSDEA equity piece to fall into place to keep abreast of the published timeframe, seems viable to me.
There appears to be no need to take the equity piece until the funds are needed and closer to when, I assume, the debt funding terms sheet becomes binding.
Lewis you have been know to raise some good reasons why shareholders should feel timely announcements have not been forthcoming, having said that, the company has detailed to the market a construction timeline, where earthworks are progressing into May and are funded by the $15m provided by the FSDEA / ASWF. The timeline details that civil works will commence in May, with an additional cost expenditure of $5m forecasted for May. Also, detailed is that the accommodation block is in modular form and will be dispatched from South Africa, so obviously, you should not be troubled by the fact that construction of buildings on site is not happening. Given the amount of preparatory work, headworks, etc which has been detailed and there being ample free cash on hand obviously, the Board is comfortable with the current state of affairs, knowing the ASWF has pledged support in the form of equity and is part of the debt funding syndicate. I would agree, that the share price is not reflective of the true value of the company notwithstanding that the Board has every confidence that the ASWF will fund the projects ongoing construction until the debt funding is finalized later this year, when needed, as per the construction timeline.
(Bloomberg) -- Commodities will advance this year as central banks in the US and Europe move to reduce interest rates, helping to support industrial and consumer demand, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
Raw materials may return 15% over 2024 as borrowing costs come down, manufacturing recovers, and geopolitical risks persist, analysts including Samantha Dart and Daan Struyven said in a March 24 note. Copper, aluminum, gold and oil products may climb, according to the bank, which also stressed the need for investors to be selective as gains wouldn’t be universal.
Commodities have made a modest advance in the first quarter, with crude strengthening, gold hitting a record, and copper topping $9,000 a ton. Policymakers at both the US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank have signaled their intention to reduce borrowing costs this year as inflation ebbs. In addition, China has flagged further support for its recovery.
“We find that US rate cuts in non-recessionary environments lead to higher commodity prices, with the biggest boost to metals (copper and gold in particular), followed by crude oil,” the analysts said. “Importantly, the positive impact on prices tends to increase with time, as the growth impulse from looser financial conditions filters through.”
Goldman’s cautiously bullish outlook echoes comments from other market watchers. Commodities are entering a fresh cyclical upswing aided by tighter supplies and an upturn in the global economy, Macquarie Group Ltd. said earlier this month. Jeff Currie, formerly the head of commodities research at Goldman and now at Carlyle Group LP, has also forecast gains as the Fed cuts rates. Elsewhere, JPMorgan Chase & Co. highlighted gold’s upside potential.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/goldman-says-commodities-to-benefit-as-central-banks-cut-rates-1.2051105
Might take your advice and invest in HZM according to you that was a sure thing wasn’t it?
Pensana have two very supportive major shareholders in place that reflects their confidence in the strategy and growth prospects of the company , rather than taking any notice of a random anonymous internet troll.
28 APRIL 2023
M&G, which is one of the UK’s leading investment institutions and Fundo Soberano de Angola (“FSDEA”), which is the Angolan Sovereign Wealth Fund, remain strongly supportive of the Company and its business plan and have each requested and been granted the right to participate in any future equity or other fund raising undertaken by the Company on a pro rata basis for the next two years.
https://pensana.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/RNS-Issue-of-Shares-to-M-G-and-FSDEA-_28-April-2023.pdf
PAUL1DEANO
Pensana Plc - LSE: PRE is an Institutionally backed junior, with finance, in construction
and with a big valuation upside.
FSDEA, M&G and PCA have invested US$70 million to date. Ultra-low US$217 million upfront Capex
• PRE (65%) of EBITDA £137-163 million per annum v current market cap of £100 million.
• PRE (65%) Base Case valuation US$600-1,100 million = £1.09 – 2.01 per share versus
current 31p.
Pensana will definitely be a good one to monitor over 18 months, the EBITDA will surely be compelling for instructional investment, coupled with downstream processing at Saltend UK, a NPV of many multiples of $1b should see the share price being x 10 to 20 times based on peer group comparisons with only circa 300m shares on issue.
Monitoring for a further 18 months when in production and debt free, the dividends will be multiples of the current share price.
All the best with your monitoring!
The event comes on the heels of U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken’s visit to Luanda in January 2024 where he discussed bilateral relations and partnerships in the areas of infrastructure, energy, economic engagement and trade. In October 2023, the U.S. also signed a seven-side MoU with the African Development Bank, the Africa Finance Corporation, the EU and the governments of the DRC, Zambia and Angola for the Lobito Corridor. The project links the Copperbelt in southern Africa to the Atlantic Coast for the purpose of driving mineral development and international trade.
https://energycapitalandpower.africa-newsroom.com/press/angola-represents-a-strategic-opportunity-for-united-states-us-investors?lang=en
A hard-hitting academic study by specialists at highly-regarded Harvard University in the US has concluded a series of investigations that point clearly to “collapsing state capacity” in South Africa – and a bleak outlook for the country.
The report, the finalisation of a series of nine studies over two years, and the culmination of the renowned Harvard Growth Lab’s investigations of South Africa’s rapidly deteriorating state-provided infrastructure offers little hope on current trends – and it sharply underlines the hurdles before the ruling African National Congress (ANC), just six months ahead of a national election.
https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/rest-of-africa/south-africa-hurtling-towards-failed-state--4449744
02/13/2024
Recently, South Africa evoked opposition in some quarters by bringing a case against Israel to the International Court of Justice on the account that the latter is perpetuating genocide against Palestinians. Israel’s response to the terror of Hamas has been widely denounced by the mainstream press, but irrespective of the legitimacy of South Africa’s claims, this matter has brought South Africa to the forefront of public discourse, and as such, an examination of the country is necessary.
Under the leadership of the previous president Jacob Zuma, this incestuous relationship blossomed to the detriment of public finances. In collaboration with the government, prominent businesspeople benefitted from lucrative contracts, and government officials who refused to endorse corruption were replaced. Zuma resigned in 2018 and was slapped with a litany of charges from tax evasion to fraud.
Socially, South Africa is crumbling with an education system in shambles. Most government schools are underperforming and many lack laboratories, toilets, libraries, and sporting facilities. To make matters worse, Rosa Sommer reported in an article that in 2022 over fifteen hundred underqualified and unqualified teachers were employed in public schools. Mismanagement of resources is a serious problem in South Africa because poorer countries outperform South African students on important tests.
Reading international reports on South Africa is quite troubling since they rarely promote a favorable picture. Writing for Bloomberg, S’thembile Cele likens South Africa to a failed state where people meticulously monitor time so that they can use utilities before they malfunction. Power outages are a routine and government services barely work, so time management is a must to achieve daily tasks. Prominent South Africans think that the government is failing society. Cele quotes the bleak remarks of policy analyst Tessa Doom: “We don’t feel the effects of having a failed state. . . . But we certainly are feeling the effects of a failed government.”
https://mises.org/mises-wire/new-south-africa-now-newly-failed-state-dont-look-things-improve
Tony - 750000 Shares traded in the first 3 hours is well above average trading.
You should say , does not suite your trading criteria as you have been caught out.
Hi Mumbles2021 - Filter , ignore is bliss ,suggest your do the same .
US. President Joe Biden has a full plate when it comes to foreign affairs—many of which are giving him more heartburn than he would ideally prefer heading into a tightly contested bid for re-election. But there is one under-the-radar project that his administration has pushed that could likely end up becoming his signature foreign policy legacy for decades to come—the Lobito Corridor. It's a multibillion dollar railway investment that connects central and southern Africa to a deep-water port in Angola that will become a pivotal piece of the supply chain fueling the expected $10 trillion global clean energy economy.
Yet in one fell swoop, this signature initiative of the Biden administration has the potential to accomplish a triumvirate of major long-term U.S. foreign policy goals: countering China's global dominance in the critical minerals supply chain, kicking off an unprecedented wave of development in key developing African economies, and perhaps most importantly, unlocking access at scale to the key inputs needed to power Earth's migration to so-called clean technology, providing a real path forward to a future less reliant on hydrocarbons
"The Lobito Corridor is, hands down, the most transformational infrastructure project to ever occur in central and southern Africa," Pereira Alfredo, the governor of the Bié Province in central Angola, told Newsweek. "Not only will this initiative unlock access to critical minerals mined in Angola, Zambia and the DRC, but it will also spur a wave of tremendous growth and development along its route."
"It's one thing to have oil reserves, but as the world slowly but surely starts to migrate away from carbon-based power solutions, being a gatekeeper to the biggest channel of goods in and out of the heart of Africa is far more valuable. Not only will the Lobito Corridor catapult Angola's standing onto the international stage, as a major entrepôt in the critical minerals supply chain, Angola will soon realize that it is a significant player in the soon-to-be multi trillion-dollar clean energy economy," she said.
https://www.newsweek.com/africas-angola-holds-keys-ushering-global-green-economy-opinion-1869709?fbclid=IwAR1l6J8vcJ71AirCht1Z3uNj9cmCTHOlg7-aoQsvw-7EJRMj6ljHxotdK0g
Rare earth prices, which experienced a sharp decline in 2023, are expected to make a strong comeback later this year, driven by growing demand from the electric vehicle (EV) and wind power industries, coupled with a potential reduction in production quotas by China, the leading producer of rare earths. Analysts predict a resurgence in rare earth prices after a challenging year in 2023.
Rare earths, a group of 17 elements crucial for a wide range of applications, from military equipment and lasers to magnets used in EVs and consumer electronics, saw their prices reach a decade-high in 2022. However, these prices plummeted throughout 2023 due to increased production in China and sluggish demand growth, impacted by the country's uneven post-pandemic economic recovery.
According to data from Shanghai Metals Market (SMM), the price of praseodymium oxide, one of the most commonly used rare earth elements, fell by 34% in China during 2023. Similarly, terbium oxide and neodymium oxide hit their lowest levels since late 2020 by the end of the year.
Despite this downturn, analysts believe that further decreases in rare earth prices are limited, especially for neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) oxide, which is crucial for permanent magnets. SMM analyst Yang Jiawen pointed out that NdPr oxide prices experienced a 38% drop in 2023 and are currently hovering close to the production cost level.
Guolian Securities recently predicted an 800-metric-ton global deficit for NdPr oxide in 2024, a significant shift from the 6,600-ton surplus recorded in the previous year.
China, the dominant player in the rare earth industry, took notable steps in 2023 to control output. The country issued a third batch of rare earth output quotas, marking the first time it had done so within a single year since 2006. The total quota for the year reached a record high of 255,000 tons, reflecting a 21.4% increase compared to the previous year.
China's pivotal role in rare earth production cannot be overstated, as it accounts for 70% of global rare earth mining and a staggering 90% of refined output, according to data from the United States Geological Survey. The country has employed a quota system since 2006 to manage the supply of this strategic resource.
As the world continues its shift towards renewable energy and electric mobility, the demand for rare earth elements, particularly those used in magnets for EVs and wind turbines, is set to increase. With China potentially reducing production quotas, the global rare earth market appears poised for a resurgence in 2024, providing hope for a much-needed recovery after a challenging year.
https://www.finnewsnetwork.com.au/archives/finance_news_network448250.html?fbclid=IwAR1zWA94t6IgSKQSt-bNffd9ouplDD1mv1z0kJkCBak_EhMcReMyU9qrsD8
NdPr oxide is likely to see an 800-metric-ton deficit globally in 2024, flipping from last year's 6 600-ton surplus, Guolian Securities wrote last month.
"We expect extra supply to be more or less cleared by end-2024, as demand catches up with supply through continually increasing electric vehicle sales and wind turbine production," said analyst Willis Thomas at CRU Group.
CHINA QUOTA
Last year, China issued a third batch of rare earth output quotas, the first time it issued a third set of quotas in a year since 2006, with the total quota for the year at a record high of 255,000 tons, up 21.4% from a year earlier.
However, China's quotas are expected to increase at a slower rate this year, at between 10% to 15%, analysts at information provider Baiinfo said in a research note.
"We do expect another increase in production quota for both mining and separation ... but not to the extent we have seen last year," said analyst Ross Embleton at Wood Mackenzie.
China, which accounts for 70% of rare earths mining and 90% of refined output, according to the United States Geological Survey, has controlled its supply of the strategic resource through the quota system since 2006
https://www.miningweekly.com/article/rare-earths-prices-seen-rebounding-in-second-half-of-2024---analysts-2024-02-05?fbclid=IwAR2LFvUBNDyvk4fahdobO6jovX3ip1LWGPd8X8SUZqcbxw6HCr96FiV5IpU
Angola's mining sector is expected to grow significantly in the coming years, as global demand for multiple minerals and rare earths is expected to grow in line with the growing demand for battery minerals and other strategic minerals. Currently, the exploration and production of diamonds represents around 90% of total mining revenue in Angola. However, this is expected to change. As the world continues to strive towards energy transition, battery minerals such as lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite, manganese, aluminium, tin and tantalum, among others, are expected to grow exponentially.
Mining company Rio Tinto signed an agreement last month in Luanda with the Angolan Government to acquire a concession to mine basic metals, including copper, cobalt, zinc, titanium and aluminium in the Angolan province of Moxico. This follows a similar agreement signed between the government of Angola and mining major Ivanhoe to prospect and develop copper in the provinces of Moxico and Cuando Cubango. In 2022, South Africa's De Beers Group signed a Mineral Investment Agreement with the government of Angola to re-enter the country and prospect for diamonds.
The aforementioned agreements attest to the significant interest in Angola's mining sector following recent industry reforms introduced by the government, under the leadership of His Excellency João Manuel Gonçalves Lourenço, President of the Republic of Angola.
https://energycapitalandpower.africa-newsroom.com/press/angolas-ministry-of-mineral-resources-oil-and-gas-mirempet-freiberg-university-of-mines-and-technology-start-scholarship-program?lang=en
Pieces are all falling into place from the DD RNS 21st January.
Tim George CEO commented "We are very pleased to receive this important product quality approval for the Longonjo mixed rare earth carbonate which follows extensive pilot plant test work in Perth, Western Australia. Our understanding is that there is expected to be a shortage of high quality, clean product coming onto the market in the near future, and this puts us in a strong position when looking to secure offtake arrangements."