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In today's AUM Statement Polar Capital reported total net performance fee profits as at 30 September of £4.8m, compared to £2m at the same time last year (30/09/21).
Really? How do they calculate these? Looking back at stock markets in general (and tech/growth stocks in particular), how can they have outperformed this year compared to last year?
Link to full note: https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/small-aum-decline-in-q2-inflows-in-non-tech-funds
Small AUM decline in Q2, inflows in non-tech funds (new research note) *** AUM fell 1.0% over Q2 of FY23 (to 30 Sep 22) to £18.77bn (-15.1% over H1). Net flows totalled -£529m during the quarter (-£845m over H1), with market movements and investment performance contributing +£342m to AUM (-£2,051 over H1). The closure of Phaeacian mutual funds in Q1 resulted in a -£459 impact on AUM.
Given continuing market uncertainty and outflows, our end-FY23 AUM forecast reduces to £18.3bn (previously £19.0bn). We do however highlight that because of market volatility we have not upgraded our performance fee forecast (currently £2.0m, net of staff allocations) even though ‘marked to market’ performance fees have increased to £4.8m. We shall review this again in Jan ‘23, when most performance fees will have crystallised.
Our fundamental valuation reduces to 600p per share, 50% above the current share price, and we flag that Polar’s PER is 8.0, far below a peer group median of 12.3.
Bought in today, think we may have one last flush but prices too good to miss, 50% allocation for now.
Most likely will be semi annually. Next one declared late November for ex dividend date of late December and paid mid January.
Looking at an entry. Is the dividend paid semi annually?
Back in at about 442p
Jeepers that's going lower
I think it just peaked too quickly at up near the £9 -- still plenty of wiggle room below this price still
The share price almost halved between Aug 21 and Jul 22. What caused such a dramatic drop?
Got out today around 526 -- good gain over just a few weeks
AUM fell £3.17bn or 14% over Q1 of FY23, from £22.12bn on 31 Mar 22 to £18.95bn on 30 Jun 22. This fall was actually a little less than we had expected, given the very sharp falls in equity markets over the quarter: the MSCI ACWI fell 15.5%, and the Dow Jones Global Technology Index fell 23.4% (technology strategies made up 42% of Polar’s AUM on 31 Mar 22).
Outflows from Polar Capital’s technology funds slowed from £630m in Q422 to £380m. We would highlight this slowdown in outflows as a significant development, as in previous quarters investors were aggressively withdrawing funds in parallel with the large declines in technology stock values.
However, being so early in the financial year, we have left our full year FY23 forecasts unchanged, which we believe is a conservative stance as we do now see a higher probability that our forecasts may be exceeded (because of the slightly stronger than expected June AUM performance). We will re-visit these when Polar releases its Q2 AUM update in October.
Therefore, our fundamental valuation remains 800p per share
https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/outflows-slow-in-q1-but-markets-drive-aum-lower
Seems a bargain at 465p - less than in the pre vaccine doom and gloom days.
*** FY results investor presentation (30 June) - full video ***
Polar Capital Holdings plc (AIM: POLR), the specialist active asset management group, conducted an investor presentation covering its FY results for the period to 31st March 2022.
Gavin Rochussen (Chief Executive Officer) and Samir Ayub (Finance Director) discussed the strategies that are performing strongly, how they are managing capacity, their plans for the US, and their commitment to the dividend.
The full video is available below, divided into chapters:
0:00:03 Overview & highlights (Gavin Rochussen, CEO)
0:02:25 Market perspective
0:03:13 Fund performance & capacity
0:06:58 AuM and fund flows
0:10:31 Financial review (Samir Ayub, FD)
0:24:50 Strategy & Outlook
0:31:31 Questions & Answers
Link to full video: https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/fy-results-investor-presentation-30-june
hardly matters when their about to receive a huge dividend shortly
Schroders scaling back again today, I guess they are after bigger fish. To be fair, Schroders still has a hefty holding in POLR. GLA.
"Impressive FY22 despite market & AUM falls in Q4"
Driven by a 37% increase in average AUM (from £16.7bn to £22.8bn), gross investment management fees* grew 33% from £157m to £210m. However, a drop in performance-related revenue from £44m in FY21 (a bumper year) to £14m slowed total revenue growth to 11% (£224m v £202m in FY21). Core operating profit (excl. perf. fees, other income, exceptional items and tax) jumped 35% from £52m to £69m while PBT fell from £76m to £62m, with the fall mainly as a result of the reduction in performance-related profits (FY21 £19m; FY22 £4m).
Polar’s balance sheet remained robust, with net assets of £156m, cash and equivalents of £121m, and no debt. Full-year dividends totalled 46p, 15% up y-o-y, producing a yield of 8.8%.
Recent market and AUM trends have led us to reduce our FY23 AUM forecast to £19.0bn. This results in a drop in average AUM, revenue and profit from FY22 to FY23. However, given its strategic positioning and growth opportunities, we think Polar can re-ignite its growth trajectory and reach £25-26bn of AUM over the next four years or so. Our fundamental valuation is 800p per share, over 50% above the current share price, but down from 1,000p.
Link to full detailed note, with audio summary: https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/impressive-fy22-despite-market-aum-falls-in-q4
Hi Porsche, not good then :( I bought in at 592p, I had seen multiple Director dealings at 560pm and 600p + and thought, hello if they are buying at these levels must be something good coming and then the world seems to have gone nuts. I was hoping it would at least tickle 700p but looks like my reverse Midas touch strikes again - arghhhh!
Dividend will be heavily cut, hence market pricing, value of aum will fall so inevitable, back in sub 4.50 for next bounce altho everything in U.K. looking like going same way as 08 including property market.
Polar Capital Holdings plc (AIM: POLR), the specialist active asset management group, will be conducting a presentation covering its FY results for the period to 31st March 2022. The presentation will be hosted by Gavin Rochussen (Chief Executive Officer) and Samir Ayub (Finance Director).
The event will take place at 11.00am on Thursday 30th June.
The online presentation is open to all existing and potential shareholders. Questions can be submitted during the presentation to be addressed at the end.
Link to register: https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/news-and-events/polarcapital-investor-presentation-30jun22
The RNS today is interesting, Schroders PLC seem to have sold some of their POLR shares. Doesn't detract from the fact that BoD have been buying tons of shares. Good luck holders.
Ditto Spacerat, there has been a crazy amount of massive Director buys at prices much higher than today. This could be very promising and the spread is very encouraging. Best wishes with your investment and bought in at 516p a few days ago.
Far worse spreads than this one and less than stamp duty. With the SP at a huge discount to the recent director buys, I’m back in the Polar Bear!
of this and a load more. Recession is here so bought into it. Who will make money? Manolete. If they can't nobody can. it's a pig to buy with a stupid spread but what the hell. Keeping cash too for a spot of bottom-fishing in a month or two.
The market turbulence of the first quarter of 2022 (Q4 of Polar’s FY22) has taken some of the shine off an otherwise strong year. But only some of the shine. While Q4 saw a £1.9bn or 8% drop in AUM from £24.0bn on 31 Dec 21 to £22.1bn on 31 Mar 22, over the full FY22 (Apr 21 to Mar 22) AUM grew £1.3bn or 6% (end-FY21: £20.9bn).
The dip in AUM makes only a small difference to our FY22 projections. As revenue is mostly a function of average AUM throughout the year, it is not hugely sensitive to a drop at the end of the year. And Polar’s performance fees mostly crystalise on 31 Dec, so those were largely ‘locked in’ before Q4. We now estimate revenue to grow by 8.5% in FY22 to £219m, and core operating profit to grow by 26% to £65m (profit before tax, performance fees and exceptional items).
With FY23 starting off from a lower AUM base than previously projected, our estimates going forwards have been reduced a little more significantly, and our fundamental valuation is now 1,000p per share, still 64% above the current share price, but down from 1,400p. We also highlight that Polar trades on a PE ratio of just 9.1, around half of the peer group median of 18.0, which we do not think is justified given its track record, strategic positioning, and growth prospects
https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/solid-year-despite-market-dip-paring-aum-in-q4