Ryan Mee, CEO of Fulcrum Metals, reviews FY23 and progress on the Gold Tailings Hub in Canada. Watch the video here.
To maximise capital growth by investing in a diversified portfolio of private equity funds and occasionally directly in private companies.
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Note the 0.2% fx movement in the rns (nav at June 30th) is incorrect and should be 2.0%...
But to be clear the fall in NAV was all due to FX. Valuation was slightly up.
I was rather disappointed with the valuation gains in the last two updates , most have now moved past the September lows but do not show the same uplift that has been seen in the listed market. It seems that in practice the managers were reluctant to mark valuations down in the first half of last year and have held them steady assumedly until they eventually even out again with the listed markets,
On a more positive note cash flow has been better than I thought it may, I had expected more calls and (even) lower distributions than has been the case. Hopefully, as indicated, they will be able to take advantage of depressed prices in their markets to add assets to the portfolio.
Blackrock have started to flag the potential for PE for the first time in quite a while, indicating that the best vintages appear after periods of downturn.
''we continue to favor sizable private market allocations in strategic portfolios relative to conventional portfolios.
But with increased macroeconomic volatility, we also see the potential for more opportunities within private markets
too. We find buyout vintages – a set of private equity buyouts made in a particular year – following an economic
downturn tend to outperform, reflecting more attractive valuations and future growth prospects''
So 2 days on the run we have had buybacks. 0.15% of MC but it’s a start.
NAV 463p. A year ago it was 417p.
So looks like continues market beating 12%+ annual returns that it has done for decades.
The SP doesn’t reflect this. Discount is close on 50% now.
Fortunately I don’t need to sell, in fact I am buying back in. Obvious concerns over fall out of SVB but experience tells me that sell offs at times like this are over done and gives opportunities for managers .
Nav is treading water at the moment, we will need to wait until March and April updates for the majority of the valuations to be post September (circa 45% March and >80% by April).
I just swapped into this from HarbourVest, as they are similar, but I prefer the fact PIN has less exposure to PE in the current climate. Be interesting to see how it goes...
I'm always nervous about valuations and potential manipulations, but there's no doubting this looks really cheap now. I've bought in today.
in for a penny...
google investor chronicle pantheon for the past week if you can not follow the link
https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/news/2023/02/03/private-markets-are-more-transparent-than-public-ones/
The share price has gone nowhere even though the markets have bounced back. US markets are up 5-10% over past 2months, and even more since September when a lot of valuation date from. NAV should be over 500p and they will be taking every opportunity to pick up new investments at good prices. Buy and hold.
looks like still a play
fine margins
I thought for a brief moment that 3I's results may get things moving but the (very) small rise here looks to be reversing.
It is interesting to note the change off tack of PIN from some buying of their own shares, to using the money to buy on the secondary market from distressed funds/trusts that are in danger of breaching their PE limits ( due to outflows and devaluations some funds have had to sell their listed equities and as a consequence increased their PE/listed equity ratio).
257 - 273?
October NAV down 2.7%. I say October but most, 72%, of valuation dated June when US markets generally lower.
£4 million in buy backs at discount of 48%. There also the argument that valuations are generally conservative as exit returns on investments continue to be markedly greater than booked value.
SP is up some 10% over the month.
Main issue is what will happen to the world markets and economies going forwards.
But at these discounts and PINs long term performance this company continues to look a sensible investment for any portfolio.
NAV to a new high this week, 492.5p, so probably over 50% discount.
I say probably because only 14% of valuations are dated as September 30th, 78% are June 30th. Markets, including US markets are broadly similar though.
Managers have also tended to understate in their valuations so there has been typically an uplift on existing of between 20-30%. So overall discount maybe significantly higher.
Much of this months valuation is FX, but I see that as a plus.
I have been selling down PIN in the past few years (it had become too PIN heavy) but recently I have started to increase my holding PIN. I started investing heavily in PIN in 2009. Looking back I timed it well, though I should have invested more heavily. I maybe investing a little too soon. The SP may fall more if the NAV falls, and the discount widens. Perfect timing is not possible.
There will be few realisations in the current economic climate, so I wonder if they are also trying to ensure that they maintain a good cash buffer to meet any cash calls going forward?
Another nice presentation by Helen Steers. Question raised about buy backs. She didn’t really answer why they are not buying more at this level of discount. She did say that research they had done indicated that buybacks wouldn’t have much impact on shares and also that paying a dividend would be artificial and research indicated would have minimal effect on discount. https://presentations.investormeetcompany.com/investor-meet-company/PANTHEON-INTERNATIONAL-PLC-Investor-Presentation?bmid=f5b84b0a22dd
Greater buy backs may not significantly reduce discount but at this levels of discount would improve the NAV.
I to am not concerned re the discount, its an opportunity for the PI to buy shares in a great company at a huge discount. Its also an opportunity for PIN to buy shares in a great company at a huge discount.
re the FX I always felt there was more of a risk of the £ sliding than to see it strengthening; it is a small part of my reasoning to invest companies like PIN that invest in other countries.
Most valuations are now post June which was the market low (around where we are now), so they should not be to far off.
With the £/$ at 1.16 at the end of August there will be more fx gains backed in as well.
I am not so bothered by the discount - if they keep delivering then at some point it will narrow back to historical levels, even at higher inflation rates their long term rate of growth would be sufficient to give a reasonable rate of return.
Market cap is £1.378billion so they could buy back 15% of shares under current approval, or £200million, or around £16million/month; twice their current rate.
That would be about 8% of their NAV over a year, it would hopefully narrow discount, raise SP and NAV.
The discount is probably still in the 40%+ range even though US market is down. Share buybacks at 41.9% discount.
At this level I would prefer to see more buy back and less new investments.
£8million on buy backs; £52million on new investments. But that’s just my opinion!
Good to see the share buy backs and that the company is doing what it said it would. The numbers bought are relatively small though and will have a limited impact at this scale imo.
I believe the best way for them to improve share price performance is to pay a dividend doesn’t have to be large.
2% of NAV would be enough.
But buy backs at this discount are far more beneficial at the moment. Once on 20% discount then dividends might make a difference.