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Nav increase of 4.3%, valuation gains of 6.3%
I topped up with some more this week, hopefully should start to rise again now that we are back to +ve nav increases.
The discount has always been an issue and sometimes it has been much wider. Have a look at the companies site.
I have always felt they should be prepared to buy back. It should help reduce discount (RSE have done this recently) but it should also improve performance. Pershing do buy back and are on a wider discount so it doesn’t always work as much as you may want, but presumably discount would be wider than if they hadn’t.
I think there was a belief that entering the FTSE 350 would help. I don’t think it’s helped the discount much but I think it’s helped with the spread.
PIN is one of my core holdings which I top up or top slice according to the discount. I did hold HVPE for a while after the drop in March but I know PIN better so I stick with this long term.
I did listen to the interview, thanks; I am OK with the discount where it is but I do think that over time it could narrow to closer to its historical level - I am quite happy if it does this over a year or two as I expect to still be holding.
Hi both.
I too hold equal amounts of HPVE + PIN. According to the HL app, discount to NAV averages out at -22.9% for PIN and -23.7% for HVPE. Don't know over what period this is. But it looks like long term discounts are the norm for these type of stocks? They're currently trading at not far off these discounts - despite the performance over the years. The question of discounts was raised in an interview with PIN (the funds fanatic podcast of the 14th July - on Spotify and perhaps elsewhere). Worth a listen if you haven't already.
Oakley is on an even crazier discount of -35% (did narrow recently, but then dropped back again). Good performance from them too - I'm also a holder.
I've given up hope of the discounts narrowing - I'm beginning to wonder if this is the way it is. Views?
The other one on a huge discount is Pershing Square (-32%) - not private equity in this case. Perhaps the fund manager is the 'issue' here? Bill Ackman. Though for me his recent record was the attraction - his trade in March was nothing short (!) of brilliant, and made shareholders a couple of billion.
Anyway... I've turned the discount frustration into a positive - I find the discounts reassuring - how low can a share go with a NAV that far ahead? A bit of value to balance out the biotech stocks in my portfolio!
All the best.
(my 'handle' refers the the mental torture I go through before buying/selling!)
Monkshood, foreign exchange swings are wild and is the reason I hold equal amounts of PIN to HVPE. But the share prices have not shifted (yet?) despite the swing in NAV. It would be interesting to wait and see. I know PIN has naturally more volatility.
I was expecting a currency hit but hoped it would be smaller. I had wondered if the investment gain would also have mitigated more of the currency affect but I supposed at least it is positive. Their approach, earlier in the year, to apply a value to the potential fall in nav, seems to have been reasonable and we are not seeing constant downgrades each month (although the US market has clearly bounced back since then).
Hopefully the greater certainty about the nav will allow for a reduction in the discount.
NV to end of June 2865p, with the rally in the US tech I think I was hoping for more, but looks like it has more followed the broader market. Still has a nice fat discount.
Indeed and that was from the end of May. Markets in the US are up 10%+ since then.
Happy with todays 5.3% nav increase
Still waiting. Difficult times I know, and many other ITs have not issued or suspended NAV updates, but it is times like these that you need updates. Even if it is to say we are not going to do an update until "such a date", would be helpful!
Still waiting. I know difficult times but it would be very useful to have an update. Usually in around last week of the month for previous month so well over due; though I note that last year the May results were not reported until 11th July. So maybe this week?
That has been a nice rerate so far today. Still so way to go yet....
Markets are up since the end of April, and £ weaker.. so NAV maybe 10% better today. Likely over 40% discount.
Nav down 2.3%, I have brought back into pin after selling out earlier in the year. They are taking a fairly conservative approach to the nav and the discount gives plenty of further headroom. One to tuck away as a long term holding.
Price of PIN is slightly weaker even though the US market is up 4-5% and £/$ is down. A things being equal the NAV should be higher than at the beginning of the month and the discount even wider. The end of April NAV should be published in the next few days and should give a better idea of where we are at. It could be motivator for a re-rating of PIN if the discount is as wide as expected.
SP down 10% in the last few days on no new info. Markets fairly flat. It looked a great buy last week, even better now. I have increased my position today.
The RNS is reassuring regarding the NAV. Obviously difficulty in calculating this accurately but it looks like they have worked diligently to offer the best available. Much of the portfolio is in the US and is in IT, and healthcare sectors that have not been heavily affected.
Historically the NAV has followed the tech 100 index reasonably well, and that and the S+P have rallied well from March 31st NAV calculation date, in the order of 12-14%.
The exchange rate to dollar and euro is essentially the same.
The NAV should be nearer to 3150 and on todays SP that gives a discount of over 37%.
I do worry that the recent rise was not some insider knowledge. But it still looks like a "screaming buy".
Maybe nothing and just the effects of the Covid crisis but RNS is always out by now.
And there was a big share price rise yesterday.. near 10%.. as if someone new something they shouldn’t have.
Enough of the conspiracy theory but some guidance on NAV would be helpful in decision that need to be made.
Pantheon is sitting at a significant discount. HL and morningstar put at 40% but they are using the NAV at the end of Feb. But what is it now. Well the £/$ weaker should increase the NAV. Maybe 4-5%.
But the valuation is going to be lower. Pantheon has tended to track the tech100. This has rallied of its lows, maybe 20% down from average of Feb, when most of the valuations for NAV for PIN will have been made.
So NAV may be 2500.
Discount maybe 35%. It has been higher, but not much.
And remember about 10% of NAV is actually cash. This means the discount on the share valuation is higher. Maybe 38%.
I have started to increase my holdings from my cash. I have been sitting on too much cash for too long, it is good to have the opportunity to get in to the market on better valuations and bigger discounts.
I heard one quote that the time of maximal panic is probably over but the time of maximal pessimism is yet to come. I think this is right but it is hard to call the bottom of a market ..or the top.
for the record, nav end of feb 2906, 5% rise.
But that was before the markets caught a rather nasty bug...
Will be interesting to see next months RNS but a month is a long, long time in markets like this.
It is reassuring that satellites are showing nitrogen oxide pollution building again over china. It does mean that china is getting back into action. Unfortunately europe and the USA are not handling this pandemic anything like as well. Its going to be a long summer. The UK still seem intent on letting this virus run, and without a testing and contact tracing strategy it is likely to reach a natural peak in the summer. When the peak will occur will depend on how much suppression with the social distancing. As we have instituted quite a lot of this now, and providing it holds up then the peak will be lower but will also be delayed.
The question then is how the social and political turmoil that comes with the social distancing policies and the consequences of seeing large numbers of hospitalisations and inevitable deaths plays out on the stock market.
I note the Italian stock market appears to have stabilised over the past week about 40% down, even though numbers of cases and deaths increase. Indeed the market appears to be more affected by world markets, or is it that world markets are responding to what they see in Italy?
Reply to self.
Was a clear buy back in 2016, but recall was about 50% discount in 2008-9 and clearly the best buying time.
Opportunity knocks...
We live in interesting times.
Arguably the US market was set for a fall as I have commented before.
Cash is king and fortunately I’m sitting on a greater percentage than Warren Buffett so I’m not going to beat myself up too much when not expecting such a response to Covid.
I don’t see it having truly long term effects on the companies Pantheon invests in
The NAV was 20+% before fall.
The 50% fall from peak is over done, especially with so much $ denominated, NAV should have gone up by 10-15% on currency.
Pin has tended to follow Nasdaq which is off 30%.
So the 44% discount from Morningstar maybe right but it’s difficult to assess.
I think it is closer to 50% especially as it was holding about 10% in cash the discount to NAV of shares must be closer to 50%
Haven’t seen this sort of position for years.
Time to start putting cash back to work.
NAV down 50p on FX following the surge in sterling after the election.
January RNS Valuation for November 30th NAV 2,799.
There has been a pull back in the SP from £26 to £25 in the past week, but this follows a good Xmas/Post election rally.
The US tech market has surged since November, sterling to the dollar increased post election but is much the same as the end of November.
Hopefully the US stock market rally will be reflected in the PIN NAV in coming months. The pull back in SP looks a time to add to shareholdings.