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100% agree. He's had over four years to address this. I've been in this share average down since the day he arrived and has so far seen c.70% of the value erroded in that time.
My anger is less that they've undershot estimate (AGAIN), but have done their usual mix of incoherent reporting / reshuffling accounting polic to try and fool investors into thinking they've knocked the lights out. When they've done anything but.
I've just read today's BOE release on money and credit and £1.8bn of new credit was issued on credit cards in June, this has been rapidly trending upwards for months now, yet PFG are delighted in their uselessness at being unable to covert this into new customers for themselves.
All well and good shouting about how fantastic the marketing campaigns have been.....but marketing should be judged on bottom line, and once again, they've undershot and not added any value.
There is clearly value in this company - the fact it i trading well below its break-up valuation shows how attrocious the market sees the perfoamnce and expectations of the management, but gives me some comfort that as a value investment this still makes sense (and I hope a competitor sees this and looks to acquire them as that's the only was I see the share price going above my current average).
Barclays downgraded target yesterday from 410p to 370p - but still, that means they see 100% upside on this in the coming months if management can perform even half competently.
It wouldn't surprise me if we see a flush out of provisions at year end to save the day and scrap to low end of FY analyst guidance - I can't see them hitting it without that.
I really don't think PFG is best served by MLM. I don't think he is in control / on top of things.
Browsed the last annual report. It is a multimedia mess and ridiculously the thick end of 300 pages long. I don't know who MLM/PFG thinks are the audience for a share holders report. It is anything but focused.
First brought Provident Share in 5/2017 @ 3280 (£32.8) Sold Them For 2362 Lost A Shed load Said I Would Never buy again but here I am again. Just would like them to go to 250+ to get me money back
Hi Ubik_Fresh
I know what you mean as I’ve had to sell elsewhere to finance the purchase which means I’ve risked returns I might’ve had elsewhere plus increased my exposure to a riskier share
It’s a big gamble for me and one I’ve mulled over but if there’s any future for this company I need to give myself the best chance by averaging to cut my position sooner and plan to raise my stop loss if the company SP does manage to go back over £2 but the annual results are last chance I’m giving the management in terms of no more BS about jam tomorrow and I rather fancy someone bidding to unlock the value I believe exists within this business.
Wishing you best of luck Barrie. S
Sadly, I don't have the capital to average down, so am stuck bag holding my shares at average price of £3. I'm not putting any more cash in until I see more buoyant news. A lot of the market looks like this presently, a definitely a tough time to be an investor. Only think keeps me sane is that my index funds / ETFs are relatively stable.
Hi Theborn et al
For better or worse I’ve doubled down and added 1,000 more at 186.277 - I’m going to calculate my average but I think I’ll be somewhere in the ball park of 275 and I’ve set a stop loss of 160 on 1,000 shares which I’ll raise with any recovery in SP
The shares will qualify for dividend so I’m effectively marginally in the money but the SP seems to assume the management are hopeless or the prospects of the business are poor given a repeat of profit for H1 in H2 means £100m for a company with a market cap of c £470m and a dividend of
c 15p a share is a yield of 7.5% adding the dividend back to current SP which is about double the rate I’m getting elsewhere albeit none of my other shares have been the basket case this one has turned out to be
GLA I’d like to think there’s someone out there who’s looking to buy the company as tilts good value IMHO and meanwhile some PI with deep pockets has bought 100x my investment.
The two buys of 342,000 are c 0.25% of the whole company so not an inconsiderable buy and for that reason I’m following the money hoping someone out there is more savvy than me and prepared to punt it DYOR but on past form I expect we’ll hear nothing from the company whatsoever for at least another 3m and it’ll be late Jan 2023 at the earliest before we get a glimmer of how the full year has gone unless of course it’s bad news :-(
Two ordinary trades at mid 180s
Not sure if Directors but if so that’s a big buy or could be II as £1.25m purchase
I’m tempted to go in at this level but will have to sell something to do it - would average me down nicely from my current in excess of £3
In fact, the H1 results are deteriorated by 2 factors:
1/ central cost -> I miss better explanation what is behind -> 30 mio
2/ CCD closure cost (I did not expect them) -> 10 mio
3/ personal loan loss
With the central cost on the level of last year and without CCD closure cost, acc. to my calculation the EPS for S1 2022 would be 0.37, which might lead to 0.8 for whole year 2022.
With conservative PE 8 tis shall lead to share price 6,4.
=> the key is to eliminate the mentioned 3 negative factors ASAP, as the credit cards and vehicle finance seems to be more and more profitable (question is if it is not caused by some shifted efforts to the central cost)
I am long here and still believe in the share price recovery to 5+
I'm making a general comment that there are two ways to get analyst forecasts down - with or without a profit warning. The presentation was poor, and there are other areas where I am critical, but I am taking a rounded view and will happily build my position at this price level
You're arguing with yourself bigpunt.
You've said earlier you thought the results presentation was unclear on important elements and kept cutting out. You're also saying the results are on the verge of a profit warning. Yet you back the management and trust them to deliver a greater return from the £mms they're investing - when they can't even manage a result presentation and are delighted with undershooting estimates. You can see from the share price honing in on sub 180p what the market thinks.
PS - a corporate broker is consulted on all elements of fundraising and market conditions for MA activity. Speaking from experience.
It's a well-trodden path for management to lower consensus without getting to the point of issuing a profit warning. They regularly use the word "prudent" which to me means cautious, and I don't particularly take issue with especially with macro uncertainty. I think you are overly down on LeMay - he doesn't seem to be trying to score a quick buck. Rather, he appears to be pursuing longer term success
"shore taking on PFG" the broker does next to nothing to collect their £250k-£500k fee and will not be part of any M&A as they have said they will use absorb within cash reserves. Broker is only involved in equity transactions
Also a chance that by shore taking on PFG they must flag this on thr broker reviews which automatically shows as a 'downgrade' when perhaps it isn't.
I have also thought that perhaps the appointment of Shore today, and LeMay's hinting at inorganic growth and exploring broader options might be part of Shore coming on board. Maybe there is something up their sleeve. Or maybe I'm just clutching at straws. GLA.
Was just about to say the same thing - ShoreCap are good in this sector, so the fact they are now acting for PFG and at the same time downgrading them is an even further damning indictment of management.
Numis also now downgrading expectations as projecting cost base for the year to be £50m higher than previously. All this while LeMay is 'delighted' and believes this is inline with expectations.
Out please.
Looks like broker downgrades incoming, from their house broker. Hmmm.
Oh I don’t need a bull case…. if my first buy is massively less than current holders, that’s all the evidence I need.
Hi DenFos, can I ask what tempted you to get in? Just curious what the bull case is for new investors?
Bought my first lot here today at under 2 quid. Will buy more if this sinks to 1.80p.
Ego? I simply don't agree with your substantive point. I'd agree in relation to other businesses where I trust the management teams to deliver value from investment, but I'm past that point with current PFG team.
They've already spend heavily on marketing / sales / systems for the past 18-24 months and at present have next to zero customer / loan book growth to show for it. We were promised results by now previously and they've not arrived.
Like I say, I'd love the management to prove me wrong in the coming 12 months as I'm significantly out of pocket as things stand.
I must admit to feeling a bit dejected at rests and SP drop today. I've been in this share a LONG time, and have suffered some big losses. Trying to keep a clear head and not let emotion sway your decisions is really damn hard when it comes to investing.
But, put into perspective, we are through the CCD / Home Credit / FCA debacle. We are back into profit and we have a divi being paid again. It's a bit improvement on where we were! Gonna sit on my hands and wait.
Don't let your ego get in the way of my substantive point.
City announcements are full of boilerplate prose. There are scenarios where giving less detail to the City is helpful. In this case management are spending heavily on sales/marketing/commissions for personal loans but are not admitting that because they want to be seen to be able to grow
Who said I wanted to run PFG? And, with respect, your opinion is irrelevant.
You've completely missed my point. Speaking personally as a significant and long term shareholder in PFG and, based on demostrable track record of preivous and current management over the past few years (unusual economic events excused), I do not believe the current management are capable of investing that cash to deliver products of an accretive-value in the future. It's constant promises of 'meeting internal expectations' and delivering value 'in the mid to long term'. I've been wiating and continually topping up in the mid-term and whilst I see improvements in liquidity I do not see any improvements in transparency or ability to general new business in their pillar biz stream - Vanquis credit cards.
Rewind not too far and see what investing many £100ms in to efficiencies and new products achieved for PFG. I would therefore welcome anything the management can do in the short term to get some positive momentum into the share price - this would include share buy backs, special divis from provision wind downs and M&A activity. Hence my prior comment that PFG being acquired would be a positive step.
Maybe we revisit this discussion in 12 months and see what management have done. I'd be delighted to be proved wrong.
With all due respect, thank god you are not in charge! Why would you give it out for free when you can invest it in obtaining a competitive capability or product that in most likelihood with IFRS 3 accounting, result in earnings accretion
I think differently on special dividends. If you are a CEO or FD under pressure to give shareholders some sort of bone in the short term which might also boost SP from sentiment, its an option on the table. They clearly can't lend that money.
These been on radar for a while.......took a few this morning........to trade only........Gls
1) I think they are saying they have a lot of bad debt fully provided
2) They recognise they have too much cash. The fact they are talking about it means they must have one or two transactions going through DD. No CEO of FD wants to give special dividends
I for one am not a disgruntled shareholder because I am not at a loss. It is a good business, growing in a controlled manner, in a lower risk environment. I don't mind moderate growth and I can continue to build a decent position over the next few months