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Thanks Theborn
I hadn’t spotted the date - a gentle uptick continues GLA a forensic analysis of the numbers will be crucial- I’ve got roughly £10K invested so would really like to see £4 / share if that’s not too speculative - I didn’t win EuroMillions or I’d become an activist investor in PFG
Pfg tends to track upwards towards the results announcement.
What happens then is anyones guess.
But 27 July is important.
Scarcely a massive gain but decent move over two days
I’m now only £3K out of the money lol
Hang on … this can’t be right??
Shares up 5% ?
Not sure I can remember when that last happened
Theborn
I’m the same
Holding with almost £10K invested well out of the money as shares currently worth £6K but can’t bring myself to add more fur to obvious negative sentiment around share / sector which on fundamentals denies logic
GLA when those long awaited results eventually arrive
There really out to be no more kitchen sinks at this point. In recent years we have had the following 'exceptional' item costs ...
2017 - 224.6m
2018 - 55.3m
2019 - 26.3m
2020 - 58.9m
2021 - 60.7m
From here on in they'd have to be renamed 'incompetency' costs.
Somehow I think an element of kitchen sinking will be the order of the day …. Bad debt provision will be worked in before it happens… part and parcel of keeping one’s job.
I also noticed PFG have done their classic balls up on making their results announcement date align with a significant macro event that will most likely drag the market down and mean their results get missed (by this I mean Fed likely to hike rates by 1% on same day). They've done this previously.
You'd think if they had half a brain they'd look at thr calendar and either announce a few days before or after these type of events so allows some for share price to correct before or after a major market move.
They never learn.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jul/06/demand-for-debt-services-by-lloyds-customers-jumps-rising-prices-savings
I think this the current economic conditions make for prime territory for PFG, just as long as they can get their **** together the company should do well.
Agree - and this whole time being given share rewards as part of the comp.
In fairness, this share in any normal market is an 8-15 PE depending on sentiment. We are at 3.5x,sl so even in a worst case this should be £4+ (which agrees to all the established Broker guidance - Barclays, Shore Cap etc), but its tarred as a piece of turd.
Everyday 250 falls 1% this falls 5% (like today). Any time ftse 250 bounces, this stays flat.
There aren't even any signicnat noted shorts on the stock (although perhaps lots of <5% positions not declared) so even if results are bumper we don't get the added benefit of a short squeeze.
I want / need / price this as £4+ minimum but struggle to see how that 125% increase is achieved in a 6-12 month period.
Surely it would be a takeover target but sadly the entire market is acting with pure paranoia at the moment. I'd buy a near prime loan book and growing business for 75p in the £1 any day (which is where current share price values the assets)
Agree if we don't see a change soon then LeMay needs to step aside.
I'll hold. Would buy more if I could.
Let's wait and hope for sense.
The Q1 trading statement was positive / indicated all was in order.
If there was anything to the contrary at the Jul 27 results then I'd say Le May should be given his marching orders.
When he took over in Feb 2018 PFG closed @ 523p. A year later in 2019 the management view of a NSF offer of ~511p a share was that it was not fair value. Today closed PFG @187p.
Le May has had enough time to put the house in order.
Pooks - I think very few companies will be publishing results with happiness in current climate, and personal feelings of employees on the ground often do not mirror the broader financial case of the business or the market perception.
Per the latest BoE date published on 1 July :
"Individuals borrowed an additional £0.8 billion in consumer credit in May, on net, following £1.4 billion of borrowing in April (Chart 2). This is slightly below the 12-month pre-pandemic average up to February 2020 of £1.0 billion. The additional consumer credit borrowing in May was split between £0.4 billion on credit cards, and £0.4 billion through other forms of consumer credit (such as car dealership finance and personal loans).
The annual growth rate for all consumer credit was unchanged at 5.7% in May; the highest rate since February 2020 (5.8%). The annual growth rate of credit card borrowing was 11.2%, and the annual growth rate of other forms of consumer credit was 3.5%, the highest rate since March 2020 (5.6%)."
Based on this hard data alone, I would be extremely disappointed if PFG have failed to enhance their earnings during the previous quarter. Plus, given their move away from sub-prime, their current borrowers will have more resilience than the sub-prime clients would have done 3 or 4 years ago.
If they can declare a respectable interim dividend and give assurance on the book quality then surely this needs to stop trading below its break-up value and current 3.5x PE. The current valuation is an embarrassment to management.
Results confirmed for 27 July:
https://www.providentfinancial.com/shareholder-hub/financial-calendar/
Live locally to HQ … know a few members of staff rumor has it things are definitely getting tougher so don’t expect happiness on the next update… Sorry
Theborn
Couldn’t agree more unfortunate I’ve got 3,000 turds priced closer to gold bars than toadstools currently :-(
It's a total turd of a share Barrie.
I'm struggling for any optimism.
They better deliver come the results - market thinks the management team are value destructive based on curent pricing. They better have some actual rabbits to pull out.
Yes Theborn back in the 180s
Wished I had the spherical objects to buy more but I’m in quite deep for what I perceive is a risky share
All I can say is that it works in most cases, as in the example quoted.
It is a form of momentum trading, this has stood the test of time.
You don't buy at the bottom but you avoid falling knives.
So I just looked it up and found this:
The 200-Day SMA
The 200-day SMA, which covers roughly 40 weeks of trading, is commonly used in stock trading to determine the general market trend. As long as a stock price remains above the 200-day SMA on the daily time frame, the stock is generally considered to be in an overall uptrend. One frequently used alternative to the 200-day SMA is a 255-day moving average that represents the trading for the previous year.
But, to me, this seems dangerous as all it gives you is 'stock price is currently higher than the average over last 40 weeks'. The rest of it looks like 'buy high, sell low'. There must be more to it.
OWLS
I said a 'good look at that simple rule', not a fleeting glimpse. Try again. I'm sure this time the penny will drop.
Once again the ftse 250 dips and recovers. Pfg dips and doesn't recover. The correlation it has to the overall market is disgusting.
Can’t wait for an update on first half year’s trading
It’ll be pivotal in terms of SP reaction I believe as any profit without exceptional should make it obvious how lowly rated this company has become
HALIFACTS
"OWLS, just take a good look at that simple rule again for us. I think the reason for bigpunt's comment may become clearer to you. :-)"
No, not any clearer I'm afraid.
By following the 200 day rule you would have bought in April 21 at 238 and sold in March 22 at 317, a nice 36% profit but more importantly you would then have avoided the subsequent painful 40% drop.
Ubik_Fresh I agree patience is a virtue and if I was more liquid I might just keep buying
Also agree with other recent post that the company being coy about setting a date for an update maybe heaping negative sentiment on the share implying the possibility of bad news they don’t want to share until they absolutely have to
A p/e of 3 and share value leading to a market cap of 75% NAV could almost signal a perception the company is either about to be hit with an undisclosed provision that could lead to a breach of covenant with lenders or the FCA are about to dump a gargantuan bowel movement on the company
I’ve 3,000 shares currently £4000 out of the money despite buying some on the way down
Management should be embarrassed at the perception the market has.
There is usually positive momentum in the lead up to results so the sooner they confirm what date in July they'll issue their trading update and H2 estimates we might see some type of bounce.
I really can't get my head around how far this has gone down. It's approaching a 3x PE and 75% of break-up value. As comments before note, the current economic climate could just as easily be a positive for PFG. If only the management would engage more.
Something needs to happen - you'd have thought on current price there might be takeover interest. Anyway, I give up hope for now.