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Hey Barrie, I still feel like this one has a chance to gain during the downturn. Consumer borrowing is up as people struggle to make ends meet. Has the market bottomed yet, nope, I think we at about 2/3rds of the way down.
You'll need patience with this one, arguably, we'll all need patience for equity / stocks full stop.
On the other hand if the shares fall to 180 ahead of the results I’ll probably cut my losses as have made very high profits elsewhere and maybe market knows something I don’t.
That’s half what I paid not that long ago and is a classic example of blindsiding myself on a business I expected to
“do well” but macro economic concerns appear to have trumped my enthusiasm and attachment to the share.
Rule 1 don’t get emotional about stock !
I think the penny has finally dropped with me that the problem with the SP is exactly that.
Even if the results are good I’ve no doubt the market will talk down the prospects so I’m pretty sure the SP recovery will be more gradual and less rapid than I’d hoped so it’s just whether my nerves and my wife’s risk adversity can allow my desire to further average down to achieve a quicker exit!?
OWLS, just take a good look at that simple rule again for us. I think the reason for bigpunt's comment may become clearer to you. :-)
But you avoid losing a fortune with dogs like this !
Big off-book buy trade today, c.£1m.
I've dipped in further too, but that trade is not me!
Reminder this share is currently trading below the net asset value of the entire company (even excluding intangibles).
H1 TU can't come soon enough.
No thanks, by definition you will miss out on lows
Simple rule. Sell when the price is below the 200 day SMA, buy when it is above it.
For those that invest on fundamentals (medium/long term) rather than charts (short term), why delay. I am going to do exactly as Ubik_Fresh says, although not slowly as I suspect that HY will be positive, and neither am I down as I got back in to PFG during Covid-lows. These are excellent buying times, similar to covid-lows but significantly less macro-risk
Now at it's 12 month low. Not wise to average down. 200 day SMA is 306 which is a strong sell signal. I'd wait fro the trends to change before buying.
Covid lows were around the £1.50 to £1.60 mark, I think we could see those levels again. I'd wait patiently and average down slowly.
But seriously, this is silly cheap. Keeping a close eye to average down like a chump.
Yep, Diodes only operate in one direction I think... so it's a good analogy.
Blood is running in streets
Whoever predicted this was right
Down with the wider market but never up
When I was a schoolboy and played with radio kits there was a component that behaved like that
A diode? Memory has gone but seems a one way share at the moment so I’m keeping my eye on it
Cheers Theborn
I’m not suggesting others follow me but I’m inclined to start buying again at this level to average down despite loss today following two day improvement DYOR GLA
Thanks Theborn, doesn't really provide an awful lot of insight, but I'll be interested to see half year results as I feel like the company is finally getting back on track after all the drama with the FCA and home credit. They are right that a lot of downward pressure on SP at the moment is Macro related. I would think the sector PFG occupy would do well in times of growing economic strife, with people struggling to get by and requiring credit. Pretty grim reality, but this is the business they deal in.
All
A colleague who is also an investor in PFG asked some questions to PFG via email to be addressed at the AGM tomorrow. PFG kindly provided responses to these. Obviously, none of this information is market sensitive but given some responses address points often raised on these PFG notice boards I thought I would share for the benefit of fellow shareholders:
q1) Appreciate purpose of AGM is to approve or reject specific actions. As some of those actions relate to dilution of the share base the current shareprice, about to dip below £2, cannot be ignored. I would appreciate an indication from management as to performance during the current year and their view on what must be done to address the falling share price. - a1) We published our first quarter update in May, covering the trading period from January to March, and we plan to release our half year results at the end of July this year. This will cover the period from Jan to June 2022. I am unable to provide a more wholesome trading update outside of those updates. However, you will see in our first quarter update that asset quality across the business remained high and the underlying credit demand from customers was strong. We have no current plans to dilute the share base. The Board and I share your disappointment with the share price. However, with such an uncertain economic backdrop at present in the UK and high levels of volatility across equity markets, we must focus on making sure that we support our customers by providing them with the assistance they need and managing the things within our control.
q2) Linked to above, shareholders who have stuck with PFG deserve to know what management expectations actually are for this year and future years. Trading updates often refer to 'in line with management expectations' but I've never seen these expectations explicitly set out at the start of the year? I appreciate analysts have their views, but if PFG are linking management views to a particular analyst consensus this needs to be made clear. I want to know what EPS and divi target is for current year and 3 year look ahead. - a2) I am unable to provide you with what our internal budget and forecast models say about the financial direction of the company. References to “in-line with management’s expectations” are designed to provide shareholders and the market with an element of comfort that the external perception of how we are performing as a business matches that of the stock market.
q3) Update on provisioning and portfolio performance in the current high inflationary environment. - a3) Please refer to our first quarter trading statement on our website for the most up to date information.
q4) Update on the personal loan pilot which has been referred to a lot in past 18 months. Is this now delivering positive returns?- a4) As stated within our first quarter trading statement, the personal loans pilot phase will be assessed at the end of June and an update will be provided
I recognise the sentiment that the price is low - it appears unbelievable value based on all metrics. However I am personally happy to see it stay around the £2 level until HY results in August because it will allow me to build a decent shareholding before the rabbit is out of the hat with this share
Will be interesting to see, bigpunt. I just wonder if, with the price being so low now, one or two might take a chance and push the price up a little, even before any announcements. I and many others cannot see a market justification as to why the price is suffering so much so I'm hoping it's bottomed out just above the £2 mark. Went up 8p on Friday so here's hoping.
Perhaps the institutions are waiting to see how stable the dividend is before piling in - in which case the half-year announcement will be key
We'll be it the £1s again very soon.
Market has completely lost the plot on rating on this share. It started undervalued and its continued to be hammered. It needs a re-rate and a sense check.
I can only sdee it continuing one way until Q2 update - at which point it could well be on a 3.[X] p/e ratio; double digit divi yeild and trading a less than 70% of asset value.
Madness.
BNPL woes might be denying sentiment but this is a good company surely and at least a third undervalued
Here’s hoping - I’m holding but will perhaps not add despite rock bottom price as in Shell also and having to hold as they’ve fallen back lately along with general market
GLA
Thanks bigpunt really useful
The robustness of second hand car values will of course weaken at some point and that could lift impairment if used as de facto security for loans
I need to immerse myself in detail of annual reports but really appreciate your comments
Barrie, in no way am I an expert, but if you were happy with your trades (and with hindsight) when the price was circa 300p and there has been no material deterioration in the business or the markets; do not be so wistful and do not allow it to impair your decision-making on future trades.
I presume the market will have a close eye on impairment charges, and whether inflationary pressures are leading to higher impairment charges. There are a couple of really helpful tables within Note 12 of the Annual Report 2021 which give granular detail of 2021 and 2020 performance - although credit cards and personal loans are lumped together. I would note that there are £55.7m of 'overlay' provisions in credit cards and personal loans at 31/12/21, which incidentally appears to have an improving quality of loan book, which is a big plus in my view. However there are no additional provisions in vehicle finance and the loan book appears to be lowering in quality. This is where I will be focusing my attention in future updates