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Looking at the current market capitalisation at the current price I think we're well into FTSE250 territory, so this may mean that tracker funds are buying shares: Given the current price and all the positives recently I'd see PFD getting promoted from it's current FTSE all-share index into the FTSE250 (esp. being able to offset the Premier Foods pension fund deficit against the Hovis pension fund surplus, I still don't understand how they managed that but it's good for shareholders - that was always the major risk with PFD, with that deficit previously not able to benefit from the ring-fenced Hovis scheme surplus). So I would expect that the closer we get to FTSE promotion/demotion day the stronger should be the demand for PFD.
As always, DYOR; my suggestion if you wish to check my logic would be to get the list of FTSE250 constituents with their market caps. This site doesn't seem to have that option that I could find, but the London Stock Exchange site does. So, get that, sort the list by market cap and hopefully you'll also find that PFD could sit comfortably in that index. (I suggest also looking up PFD there to use that site's figure for PFD market cap to be using the same source for your numbers when you do that check)
and with the Pension Hand brake released who would have thought dear old PFD would be a multi bagger for new entrants this year. Still a long way to go.
Agree moving fast now ! Wow life is good again. I have recovered my orig cash & more & still have an impressive holding in company perfect took a little longer than I thought but slowly slowly catch a monkey ooops I am allowed to say that any more ? i
because it is seriously undervalued. annual profits of around £130M and growing but mcap of only £700M. Do the maths lol
Wow Rising fast ! Anyone can shed any light on it ?
who would have thought we would be squabbling over rises where PFD is concerned !
Love the threads title Scooter . HaHa
Yes this is a feel good Monday ( for a change )
I’m saying it hasn’t shot up like 4 percent in one go ! But a gradual climb
83 + 4% if this is slow i would like to see your def of fast ! But its all good stuff !
Nice slow rise this morning on its way to a POUND and beyond. GLA
I agree get the debt down , and then in the future think about dividend again . By getting debt down the share price increases .
I would rather hope the debt is paid off instead of paying a dividend. I have never understood why companies pay out dividends while they have debts that requires tens of millions in interest each year. Its like buying a house on a buy to let mortgage while keeping £100k in the bank in a savings account paying 0.1% interest. For example look at the difference between SQZ and ENQ. Both are oil producers in the north sea. SQZ has half the production of ENQ but has a much greater mcap because it has no debt. While ENQ needs to produce x amount each year just to cover the interest, SQZ just needs to produce a fraction of x and they will make a healthy profit.
Any thoughts on what level of dividend might be approved IF one is announced later this year ?
My first post also! Firstly, thanks to all sharing your knowledge in this chat - and to Kallumama for your spreadsheets and insight into PF! My glass is still half full. I worked for Rank Hovis on the commercial side for many years [until sadly the Milling side closed down 2018- milling since 1875]. We did use predominantly UK wheat and 90% is still probably about right. I'm flagging up a potential challenging time for Hovis - this year's harvest [August] will be low in terms of quantity and there'll be a Q on quality bread making wheats. The Autumn saw too much rain for good planting, some farmers waited for this Spring for planting - too dry! The result has been 25% reduction in planting area, with a potential reduction in bread making wheats from over 4.1m tonnes to perhaps 2.4m. The dry Spring will effect yield. There'll be a requirement to import - probably Germany into Tilbury!! There could be the first issue following the fire. Can't see anything other than wheat prices increasing followed by a flour price increase - resulting in an arm wrestle with the multiples on bread prices. Last time Hovis took on Tesco [2010] it cost them about a dozen lines delisted and £10m before they made up! Think late August/Sept will be an interesting time for Hovis. That said, I'm holding my very old shares for better times!!
In the not too distant past, the Board began a push (including marketing, especially of Hovis where they made great play of the '100% British wheat' claim) to consolidate as much of the supply chain as possible in the UK. However, when you think about products like Sharwood (requiring spices and other 'exotic' ingredients) and the fact that we in the UK can't always guarantee a successful wheat harvest (requiring substantial imports of things like Canadian wheat), the ideal scenario simply can't be guaranteed, so the initiative slowly died a death - certainly in terms of its impact on daily life across the company. That said, I don't know where the percentage currently stands but if it is around 90% (a now outdated figure I would imagine), it's not too bad.
I am a former supplier of 3PL services to Hovis and have been a shareholder for around 7-8 years. My first post !!! Noticed the Tilbury grain terminal fire which will reduce capacity in the short/medium term. Knock on effect to milling and in turn supply chains to bakeries. Not sure on how this impacts on Hovis, but it will have some impact either directly or indirectly. One to watch.
The big question is has the sp now turned and going back to 70p ish?
I've seen the so called 1 share buy today that supposedly is a sign used by mm's to say an rns is due the next day. Sometimes it comes true other times its complete tosh. But we can always hope for news tomorrow of £3 per share bid lol
I have just taken a good wedge of profit.......takeover offer tomorrow ????
the sp should be around £1 now. Ive managed to get some at 79p today. Everything is in place for the sp to keep rising. Just need to wait it out.
Ok, now nervously approaching my highest (89.9p) price paid (so many years ago)! I’ve had so many false dawns with my PFD, can this one be true? Now at stage where I’m working out CGT I’d have to pay - much better than working out my losses ;-) GLA
The super bit is that in the following years the savings in the pension scheme drop right through the bottom line and cash flow if they don't use it all on marketing, new brands etc. That drives up profit and sends the P/E ratio down which effectively can rise price targets quite substantially again. If they managed to unravel international ("sustained profitable growth") with their new strategy then that again could be another big profit driver. I totally get why buyers (funds and instis who i mentioned earlier) are buying with a long term view. Peel said the price couble treble in three years.
The volume heading for 5m today :) 80.80p close.
On that basis then 180.00 could be possible, that was last high a few years ago before placing
Another 4m traded today. PFD is back in vogue :)