Stephan Bernstein, CEO of GreenRoc, details the PFS results for the new graphite processing plant. Watch the video here.
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Sorry Kal but that is just not so. Matt Han**** has been at great pains in recent days to point out that the great majority of hospitalisations in Indian Vaiant hit Bolton are people who have not yet had or have declined the jab. The way out of this is Jabs Jabs and Jabs not lockdowns. People need to be given the freedom again to make their own sensible decisions for their own health.
I wonder what surprises come up on Premier results day. I can’t see steady as she goes. Surely there has to be a golden surprise somewhere? Wonder what though?
I thought you said that we should park this topic for a couple of weeks ?
How about we concentrate on PFD results ?
Dividend Information
Under the terms of our current financing arrangements the Company is restricted from paying a dividend until the Groups Net debt/EBITDA ratio is below 3.0x. For the most recent financial period, which ended on 1 April 2017, the ratio was 3.9x. Following a review of strategy in May 2017, we announced a target to reduce our Net debt/EBITDA ratio is below 3.0x in the next 3 - 4 years.
1. Strong trading performance is a given
2. Outlook will be key though probably hard for management to say much on this as we have only had a month or so of trading this year
3. Dividend reinstatement
4. Further debt pay down with full extinguishment of the remaining £20m FRN and refinancing of the 6.25% 2023, hopefully at 4% or below
5. Movement in pension liability and/or update on potential buy-out
6. Any comments on the sale of Valeo Foods to Bain (10x EBITDA) and implications for PFD (trading at 7.5x)
Expect shares to rally with a successful refinancing. I think 120-130p is currently fair value with a pension buyout and underlying business growth capable of taking the shares to 200p in two years.
Re "Australia and NZ have done very well sacrificing their international air travel companies to save the rest of the economy.
UK haven't done that"
You sure about that Kal? I would suggest that most British carriers are on their knees now as a result of uk and international lockdowns.
As regards the need for more lockdowns you have to look past variants and daily infection numbers. In previous lockdowns we didn't have the covid vulnerable vaccinated and evidence now shows clearly that most won't catch it after a jab and the few that do don't get very ill if at all.
The only daily data that matters is hospitalisation and deaths both of which have fallen exponentially since vaccination programme started and are now at tiny levels.
This 105p is sticky for Premier shares. As I know too well from past experience. I do expect 105p to breach. Then Premier shares should resume upwards trend, may be bumpy ride up. I would hope share price hitting last time price highs.
Early lab results and real life data suggest the Pfizer vaccine can protect against the new variants, although slightly less effectively. Too many CoVid variants out there but new bolster vaccine injections will counter the worst effects of the virus. I’m an optimist. Look how far we have come in the last year!
I must say the whole supermarket set up has changed over the years, some 10-15 years ago discounters like Aldi / Lidle only had small share % but have grown considerably to what they have today. They have grown their businesses on total own label products and I signed contracts for some of these products many years ago and know that for many manufactures you can make lots of money if you gain some of these lines with good profits as they don't / didn't compete against many branded products, so you make your money on smaller margins buy higher volumes. Now days most of the Tesco'e Sainsbuys Morrisons are trying to compete against the discounters on price and so the pressure on manufactures to supply at even lower prices makes all manufactures leaner and reduce costs to the bone.
PFD need to have more products for the summer months now that could be own label products or buy products to build on.
(Own brands / supermarket brands)
I remember back in the late 1980s when I worked at a Nabisco biscuit snacks factory
( later sold to BSN then onto UB )
But a good example was the variety pack of family circle biscuits we manufactured identical packs but with different labels , Jacobs , CO-OP , Peek Freans etc
Our own brands were usually a few pence cheaper, but the funny thing was at the time an article in a magazine gave a review
of these selections and they all varied out of 10 ! ?
I think it was only M&S which was very particular of their ingredients
( I’m glad I got out of the food industry
that sweet sickly smell especially first thing in the morning, I don’t miss that ! )
GLA
So we can’t be in perpetual economic & social lockdowns & the economies needs to open up safely. With populations have high CoVid injection rates, UK especially & some protection against CoVid variants it seems quite likely that the UK economy opens up safely & cyclical growth shares will be in demand. I do agree there may be selective localised lockdowns with increased CoVid surge testing.
I think for many own label product manufactures ( which are normaly big branded product manufactures look at on a yearly basis, most companies know in advance what their product launches are going to be and estimated volumes vs capacity so tender for contracts on a by product basis and will be very competitive if it helps keep the machines running at full strenght and they make a little profit. Most will tender for a 1 year supply at a time knowing their own branded products take priority and that's why over the years pfd has produced more own labe products some years against others.
The art is not to be tied into too many own label products at low margins, but there are always some companies that only concertrate on making own lable products where they have very large capacities, but that's where sometimes they can lose their market do to price and companies then have to close as they have nothing much to fall back on if everything is about price. The trouble is there is always someone else out there that will cut prices to the bone to keep their plants running.
I think pfd have made many right moves in sometimes NOT tendering for some contracts where they could have lost money just for the sake of keeping the business.
Sorry Kall I don't agree with your own label idea, I was in the food business for some 35 years and know all about production and sales.
If a manufacture is selling all their products and have some spare capacity on the machines they sould make some own label products for the supermarkets if they can sell them at a profit and keep the machines running at full strenght as it spreads the overall costs. But not make products at the expense of branded as they will be under cut on price and reduced profits. Like everything it's a balance.
Don’t you worry. Plenty shares out there to buy. I’m not a fanatic about Premier Foods.
Good morning,
So what other shares do you have your eyes on that are well discounted?
Good morning Kall, you make some very good points.
We all know that pfd has been pinned on the ropes with it's hands tied behind it's back for the last 5 + years all down to too much acquisitions and debt.
I beleive the current BOD's have made their minds up to clear as much of the debt as possible as fast as they can now and then move forward, it's the only way to solve the problem , and I think the city agree. Once they announce the ratio or debt etc in the results the sp should move up nicely.
To be truthful I’m not sure what to do? Sell Out Premier Shares or Hold Them before results day. I fear no dividend or too little dividend payout will mean massive sell orders on results day this week & shares go down a lot. Do I want this hassle as there are other discounted shares in my eyes that I can buy now & make trading profits. GLA
Sounds like influencer advertising...please desist.
I tend to agree that inflation is arriving. The FED in the US straight up said they want higher than 3% inflation to bring up the average from the past decade. The covid response worldwide has been "might as well print money and throw it into the economy until inflation arrives". I expect 3-5% in the short-medium term. ..... with 10 year yields "spiking" at 1.7% in the US , it seems as though there is a long way to go in bond yields rising and the value of growth stock decreasing as the discount rate rises on their future cash flows.
As more of it's value lies in shorter term cash flows-i.e. "value stock", PFD's value is less affected by a rise in discount rates/bond yields and the share price could even benefit from a technical rise as money moves away from growth and towards value stocks. That's my macro view anyway.
For PFD's business I just hope it can raise prices faster than inflation.
Re: dividends, there's 0 chance of one being given out next week, as they've spent their cash on the debt repayments already. I just hope they state a high payout policy for the next year, with some sensible level of debt repayments.
Re: buyback scepticism, For example I'd be delighted for the s.p. to drop to 5p for the next year. PFD could buy back the whole company with their free cash flow, except for me not selling, and I'd happily take the £10,000 per share dividend the year after!
......so yeah I'm in favour of buybacks if the s.p. is "low", dividends when it's "high".
Fingers crossed we see a nice set of results anyway
Hi bisto, I tend to disagree regarding inflation. I think for once the boe are right that it’ll be a short term spike. All thats happened is people didn’t spend for a set amount of time because they couldn’t. No one is actually better off overall, they just have money they would have spent before. Once they’ve gone out and spent it (which will be the spike) then it will settle to what it was before the pandemic.
There is no new driver of growth to maintain the higher level of inflation. We’re in debt up to the eyeballs now so it’s not like we’re going to go on a national splurge and start building airports, motorways, schools, hospitals etc as we physically can’t afford it.
Also, I guarantee they’ll raise taxes before they raise interest rates. Does the same job and doesn’t cost the treasury any more in higher debt repayments.
UK April 2021 figures also being released on 19th May. This might give the markets a scare especially fte250 but expecting/hoping this does not spoil Premier results.
PFD is still a much safer bet then the so called growth stocks for the short/medium and long term, growth stocks may benefit from short term price rises to push profits higher, but markets are no fools and will expect interest rates to go up. Central bankers can only push the illusion of the inflation being transitory for so long.
If the bank of england does not do the right thing, then the markets will do it for them, just look up black Wednesday.
This inflation to me looks very much like the late 80s.
My mind hasnt changed, this has to pay a dividend for institutional investors to buy in. She share price will increase because if tgis. We all know weaker companies that in compasrison to PFD have more risk and debt. A pay down if some debt and dividend is my preffered option. I will sell some, but remain for a.long time to come. PFD is my long time hold out of all my shares. I sold MAB and a chunk of CCL and put them in here, even though i think they will improve in the months to come.
just waiting for it to hit its 52 wk high & then selling the last of my holding as too many other recovery shares out there offer more value. But agreed divis is now the only game in town for PFD ! May be out the end of this week but PFD almost feels like one of my children !
I don't really see the 'long term investors' getting seriously interested in this company until they start paying a dividend
I mean whats the point ?
The thing is jumping around like a thing that jumps a lot
I like the accounts...and appreciate the details provided by some of you below
I will be back in again shortly...looking for the right entry point
Kind regards
The Jimster
A Dividend is much preferable. The Divi moneys go directly to all shareholders. Share buybacks benefit big fund investors where company buys back shares they own in Premier Foods. Then it releases funds for them to invest moneys elsewhere. So ordinary shareholders lose out but less shares overall they say makes shares rise. Not so always especially with indebted companies. If Premier says Divi payments coming in future (not now anytime soon) as debt payback is more preferable then I think shares may sink down on results day. That is a big risk too & millions of share sell orders on top as really volatile day. I think they are really keen on paying down debt but new KOP shareholder wants a divi yield (as most will) but could they wait? They said debt reduction is more preferable before many times. So you take your chances on results day for those wanted to make shorter term share gains ! Hope for the best but it’s a tough call.