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Good luck all genuine PFD holders today. The level of profits is in little doubt. It's what the company does with those profits.
Here's to a healthy special dividend .
Green you're being a bit too pessimistic there. See m y previous post.
The Feb 18th RNS said debt/ebitda < 2 and they've already paid off £97m with FCF this year so that's the lowest number possible.
That's what I can see anyway
The way read the situation from various RNS and analyst sentiment, results will be very positive in comparison to last years .
results.
Expecting a positive outcome from the pension front.
As for SP moving in the positive direction, will need a dividend payment or the very least dividend time scale!
I don't see why we need just pay down the debt as - debt / ebitda will come in around 2.2 or lower.
For a food company ratio around 2 is reasonable, especially given that FCF will come in around 75m
I had to weigh the pros and cons. Investor sentiment as reflected in the most recent share price movements. So no I got no insider news. Also I needed cash to invest in some other shares. So it was my own timing as well.
Me too : )
And what a difference a year makes !
Pernix u went from the opinion of a strong buy few days ago to selling out..
Do u know something we don't?
I mean a Premier Foods general company update & also trading news. Clear up any confusion.
dans23: I agree with you. You know I blame Premier Foods Board of Directors. They should have some pre-close period trading update news. That way we all have some idea how they are thinking. Sadly this may have not been the case. Myself, I’m not like if you lose money than I make more money. That’s not me. So all the best for tomorrow.
Ill be up early for the RNS.
I tend to find the more optimistic/sure a bb is that the results will be good and the SP will respond positively the worse the reaction is on results day.
You’ve only got to look at the comments on here to see how twitchy people are. Then it only takes a slight dip/disappointment on the morning for it to crumble like a house of cards.
Of course we all know this company is heading in the right direction. And in 5 years time we’ll all be laughing about how low the SP is today.
But for what it’s worth, I think tomorrow will be a bad SP reaction. That said I hope I’m wrong and all you guys make a ton of money.
i've seen little analysis of the pension on this BB so thought i would add my analysis.
I have worked through each asset class and each liability assumption - but below is just the summary
ASSETS:
bonds compared to last year are down c.8%
but the equity classes they invest in are up c.15%
i estimate the overall impact is a slight growth in assets.
LIABILITIES:
there are effectively 3 factors - longevity, discount rate and inflation.
the biggest impact is longevity and although it is not profiled this has declined because of covid.
the discount rate is higher but inflation expectations are also higher - these 2 factors net off.
so overall for me the liabilities i think have decreased.
PFD have said before that the liabilities are heavily hedged for interest rates yet the reduction in the combined premium from >1bn to 500m at the end of September was stated as being b/c of the fall in interest rates.
i cannot quite reconcile that but in hindsight we now know that sept 2020 was a nadir low point in interest rates,
so again this re-enforces my thoughts that the liabilities will be lower than Mar 2020.
i am no actuarial expert and have just been able to use spot rates,
but the long and short , for me, is that i think assets are prob slightly higher and liabilities slightly lower.
which combined means tha tthe combined Pension Surplus should be at least similar to the mar 2020.
ALL of these figures relate to IAS 19 accounting assumptions.
The actuarial process is different and more conservative.
However at the last actuarial date (Mar 2019) the 2 calculations were 'similar' at a combined break even
(if you count a £300m difference 'similar' !)
So by my calculation the combined actuarial valuation would show a surplus,
and is likely to be better than the situation in Mar 2020 when PFD presented the 3 scenarios.
My conclusion is thus that the pension combination will be at least as good as the middle scenario shown in the slides last year - i.e. the 40m p.a. funding will reduce to c.20m p.a.
On trading i broadly agree with all the detailed K posts on here.
I think it is easily seen that FCF could support a 5p divi in 24 mths time,
which to me is a price of 125p
disc i hold
CWK results out today 12%+ revenue SP up nearly 5%. Just for info
Kallumama: I pay £3.99 commission to the share brokers on each shares trade & so how would that make the Brokers so rich from my share trades. They also need to get paid for the broker service they provide like everyone needs to get paid for their jobs.
Kallumama: Some like me are share traders on this Premier chats board. So the StockMarket throws up daily good profit opportunities to trade shares. So I will sell shares that I think will not give me a good profits return & invest where I can make a profit. I’ve told you so many times that no one person can influence the share price except the big players. So yes there is always chances shares will go down a lot or go up lots. I know it’s not your thing but don’t rubbish our style of investing just because you don’t agree with it.
Kallumama: You don’t control this Premier chats board. Nobody does. Every one has an opinion. I see so many of your opinions with continual optimism which I don’t entirely agree with. Nevertheless you still do your posts. I again say these are my own thoughts. Each to their own views.
You have been talking about it for a few weeks now so if your happy and out that's fine with everyone, I guess the fear has got the better of you. Look on the bright side you can always buy back in at 80p - 90p ish if your right, then many of us will also say sod it should have sold. Good luck.
A profit is a profit. Well done!. For me the market is always a gamble. The trend is up though and the company is in a much stronger position than last year. Tomorrow will be interesting so say the least, It's always a difficult decision whether to stay or go and I feel the longer term trend is positive however for the short term we need something good tomorrow. It would have been nice to see 108-110p today as that could have absorbed some losses tomorrow if that happens. Where we are now we could be heading 110P+ or 90P+. DYOR and all that but you have to take a gamble somewhere. Well long here so hoping for the best short term.
I’m out now. Sold my shares in Premier Foods. There is too much risk for me. Last time on results day these shares down 6%. If market not liking what company says these shares could plummet more. I don’t see investor demand currently even at 105p sticky price mark. Today morning no doubt Premier shares should be up in a strong StockMarket but they dropped. I see many other shares I can invest with better trading profits. I now have high cash pile, good for me. I don’t know why investors are undervaluing this company as long term has good prospects. GLA
Premier's product portfolio is still predominantly winter / cold weather centric (though gradually changing). RHM before them and now Premier always hire early-ish in the year to train staff up to produce their Xmas related products from July onwards (mince pies form the bulk but there are plenty of other Xmas-themed products in the range too). 'Twas ever thus.
Come on pfd don't tell us this is now going down before the results.
Let's make that £1.10 at least.
Reduced (or cancelled) by means of a reduction of capital. In accordance with article 3 of the Companies (Reduction of Share Capital) Order (SI 2008/1915), the reserve created on such reduction can be treated as a realised profit and, therefore, it may be distributed to shareholders or used to buy back shares.
From the RNS 12th Feb
The Company confirms that following the Reduction of Capital, the number of issued shares and the rights attaching to those shares remain unchanged. As at 10 February 2021, the total number of ordinary shares of GBP0.10 each of the Company was 854,349,297.
As the no. of shares remained unchanged. They must have treated it as realised profit. This could be why KOP brought now anticipating a dividend.
Also as someone had posted previously, staff had been rewarded with a bonus. Maybe this could be the shareholders bonus.
Any ideas, if the capital reduction shuffle would have a positive impact on the sp.
Also could this not have been used to buy back shares in the company?
I get it now. You're just pulling our legs. Or your real name is Chris Whitty. Lol
Sorry Kal but that is just not so. Matt Han**** has been at great pains in recent days to point out that the great majority of hospitalisations in Indian Vaiant hit Bolton are people who have not yet had or have declined the jab. The way out of this is Jabs Jabs and Jabs not lockdowns. People need to be given the freedom again to make their own sensible decisions for their own health.
I wonder what surprises come up on Premier results day. I can’t see steady as she goes. Surely there has to be a golden surprise somewhere? Wonder what though?