You chat total bs kall. One minute your all over the pfd board spouting we need another god knows how long in complete lockdown to achieve zero COVID and blowing smoke up Australia and New Zealand A.
Then your on here saying online is finished, high streets are booming, look at all the stadiums and pubs! You can’t have it both ways!
As the country and economy goes back to “normal” key players both online and on the high street will do well. There’s always been winners and losers. The world is gradually going online and digital whether primark have a good year or not.
Honestly, sometimes you sound like a Luddite. The world will change around you and you’ll be the one screaming your right and it should stop.
It’s easy to give it the biggen after a few rough weeks for a sector. You just better hope the phrase “lower sales than expected due to economy reopening and work from home reducing” isn’t used in the update or this will crater.
I know everyone has their own investment style but I’d rather invest in a company with 30-40% growth and oodles of cash to spend than in one that’ll call it a great year to grow 3%
“But these executives are not keeping up with modern times”
Exactly right. But how do you propose they change that or do anything different. The trouble with legacy and old brands is that they are reliable and steadfast, but they’re not new, exciting and reactive to changes in society. However hard pfd try they are never going to make mr kiplin “instagrammable” or social media friendly, or the next must have disruptor product.
That is the way these other small companies nibble away at the big players.
Take Tesla as the example your using to suit your argument. They don’t need advertising as they’re relying on word of mouth, being relevant to the times and having first mover advantage during the biggest change in a century for that industry. That and being seen as a premium, “ever so slightly out of reach but I could probably get one if I really want the best” brand.
Tell me how pfd are going to do that with the brands they have. Sorry to say it but a fair few of them belong back in the war times. They’ll either need to take on debt again and buy out how new brands, or invent their own and spend years getting them to take off.
Also, can't say I agree about the advertising going down being good. It'll boost the bottom line for a few years, but wont help long term as sales will fall or flatline.
Coca-Cola spend the most on advertising every year, and consistently score 1st on the most well known global brands poll that gets done every year. That's not just a coincidence.
"Everything in excess is bad and everything in moderation is good. Sugar is necessary for the body" riiiight, this coming from the person who think we should be locked up/masked/social distanced forever and a day for a virus with a very, very low mortality rate, or even severe illness rate unless you're ancient or already in poor health.
I'm not saying I don't eat those things, far from it. But Diabetes and generally being unhealthy/overweight, which the government want to tackle, and which those types of food contribute to kills way more people than Covid. Not to mention costs the NHS billions of pounds a year.
Yes, sugar is essential but not the kind found in Viennese whirls, cherry bake wells and cake slices. I think you'll find all life on earth got on fine without sugar until about 300 years ago.
Could be to do with the ban on certain advertising. This is quite a serious negative development in my opinion, even though it’s a while away.
I see it as just the start of the government butting it’s nose it about what people should and shouldn’t be eating.
This could cause serious problems for pfd if they don’t quickly diversify into healthier alternatives seeing as most of their profit and revenue is made by the brands that aren’t very good for you.
They’ll find increasing taxes on junk food and the inability to advertise as much will be big drags on growth and margins.
Apologies if already posted… interesting read.
I went away for a week in the UK a few weeks ago and can confirm the place was very busy. Pretty much everyone I know is going away somewhere in the UK this year. Most of them several times.
As far as I'm concerned if once we're all vaccinated people want to live under a rock and not go out, do anything or see anyone else then that is their choice. Meanwhile there will be no more lockdowns as "the roadmap" was cautious but irreversible if I remember correctly.
I'm not making light of Covid or the impact it's had, but our literal silver bullet was the vaccines. If they don't get us back to normal nothing will and the government know this.
"but no one as yet have wanted to buy the whole of pfd because of debt."... and there in lies the problem. If PFD sold off every individual brand on a debt free basis they would sell them easily I imagine. But while the company still has lets face it pretty high debts I don't think an offer will appear and anyone holding for that sole reason is kidding themselves. No one can deny they've made amazing progress and are heading in the right direction but would you buy out a company for nearly 1.3B (150p offer price) when in a "normal" year they make a net income of around 70M, and you have to take on around 350M of debt, and have the added worry of the pension situation going forward and whether the surplus is enough and going to change due to inflation/life expectancy/discount rate changes etc etc.
I'm not de-ramping because at the right price I would be happy to get back in here and treat it as a boring but stable stock with a potentially growing dividend and a SP rerate due to debt decreasing over several more years. But I don't agree that the rises seen last year will be repeated again.
Quite surprising price moves today. Great results but as others have said how good will the next 1, 2, 3 years look in comparison?
It makes me think the SP may struggle to reflect the better underlying company when there’s not going to be much to get investors excited to buy the shares.
The divi, while better than nothing isn’t going to make you rich anytime soon. And with so many “recovery” shares out there for people to pick instead.
If the shares fall considerably I may buy some to keep a long time and as a small part of my portfolio in the increasing divi category. But not now.
I tend to find the more optimistic/sure a bb is that the results will be good and the SP will respond positively the worse the reaction is on results day.
You’ve only got to look at the comments on here to see how twitchy people are. Then it only takes a slight dip/disappointment on the morning for it to crumble like a house of cards.
Of course we all know this company is heading in the right direction. And in 5 years time we’ll all be laughing about how low the SP is today.
But for what it’s worth, I think tomorrow will be a bad SP reaction. That said I hope I’m wrong and all you guys make a ton of money.
Hi bisto, I tend to disagree regarding inflation. I think for once the boe are right that it’ll be a short term spike. All thats happened is people didn’t spend for a set amount of time because they couldn’t. No one is actually better off overall, they just have money they would have spent before. Once they’ve gone out and spent it (which will be the spike) then it will settle to what it was before the pandemic.
There is no new driver of growth to maintain the higher level of inflation. We’re in debt up to the eyeballs now so it’s not like we’re going to go on a national splurge and start building airports, motorways, schools, hospitals etc as we physically can’t afford it.
Also, I guarantee they’ll raise taxes before they raise interest rates. Does the same job and doesn’t cost the treasury any more in higher debt repayments.
I have certainly not left with losses jim. It's just about having a plan and sticking to it. I said to myself I will sell out if the price goes back to my breakeven (after being 10% up) and it did, so I sold.
Don't just listen to people sat here talking about FCF when clearly the market doesn't give a flying hoot about it. If its such a screaming bargain then why isn't that reflected in the SP. Maybe the rise from 40 to this was the market rewarding the SP but it's hit its ceiling for now.
Follow the money as they say, and that is definitely out for now, just look at Paulson.
I'm not saying I won't be back in here in the future because I think there's still meat on the bone, but it may take a while to happen. Some people on here are happy to sit for years with no price movement because it'll apparently go up eventually. I'd rather admit its stuck for a while, go get some returns elsewhere and then come back when it starts moving again.
I agree with you pernix. I sold the last of my holding today. I told myself I would sell if it got to my break even point as I wouldn’t risk ending up 5, 10, 15% down, which is what I fear will happen. I’m not upset though as I’ve made a lot on this share riding it up from the 40p region and selling most of my holding just before last results.
Like you say the fact Paulson could still have millions of shares to sell means the downside is too big a risk in the short term.
I feel the “fizz” has gone out of this share, with not much to look forward to that might make it move. A divi might help but i think they’ll start off so small it won’t really be worth having for years yet.
Of course when the results are out I could be proved totally wrong, I will have to wait and see!
Nutters or no nutters one things certain, and that’s that for about the last 10 months this SP has been disappointing unless you traded the peaks.
I do have a small holding here and am inclined to keep it to see how the results turn out, but if they’re not exceptional with the market also confirming it thinks the same I’ll be moving on.
Hi all, I've kind of stumbled across this share recently and am quite interested in it and the companies prospects. I like finding companies or industries that seem like they haven't got on peoples radars yet.
I always find mining companies difficult to understand so apologies if it all seems obviously to you lot.
I wondered if anyone could sum up the pros and cons of the business and why now may/may not be a good time to buy. I have done some reading up on the company so understand the 50:50 stake with Ganfeng, the recent placing and the timetables and lithium capacity they're targeting in 2023. Is this likely to be achieved or is this going to be another cash drainer where the PI's are diluted to nothing over the years?
I took a look at the company website and the estimates given by SRK where they estimate a EBITDA of 230m. I take it we'd get half of that, so if everything goes to plan the long term EBITDA for BCN would be about 115m?
Thanks in advance.
It isn’t possible. For every sell there is a buy and vice versa, no matter what. Automatic trades (AT) only report one half of the deal so this is why what is reported isn’t accurate. Don’t rely on buy and sell volumes to make a decision.