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Evening D_P, or should i say morning, thanks for the pointer, i'll check it out, but first i'm looking to take a position here. With my recent research into JM i feel that he's well focused on the BioTech-Pharma side, for both growth and that of being bought out. Cheers
Nov as announced was for Sept. I may not have allowed for the Exchange Rate movement for $ Investments so may be slightly out. I like the stock-but got in cheap and sold my original investment at 100% profit so the holding is now in for free and I probably do not pay to much attention as saw the price rise from 8 to 16p in the days when few followed-only 9 months ago. I will probably take the cash option, I am not keen on unquoted funds as lose the ability to spot the discount and I am a partly a value investor-look for the opportunity to buy Assets at a discount in a quoted fund if I am happy with portfolio. There are a few about-I am heavily into MPO, which again for example trades at a large discount and the Company are buying in shares and will one day be wound up. Finding these funds take some effort, but as was a broker in Investment Trusts in the 1980's guess I learnt a bit. Will see what the next NAV is, but fairly confident my figure is about right. Otherwise would be out now.
Where was the NAV posted in November? As I said in my first post my calculations were just based on the 30 Sep 13 NAV... so may well be a little out of date on the holdings, can you point me at something more recent? As you say - there's a good degree of uncertainty in the holdings, but the progress of holdings at the most recent update should still give a good indication of where PEBI is NAV wise. ... Really need some funds to free up for this, going to be kicking myself when this jumps. Said jump is pretty much inevitable given the fact that the NAV WILL be paid in full, and SP is at such a discount at present. Again.. well done to anyone with a substantial holding here! Wish I'd have spotted this sooner.
I realsie that-I will review my sheet, but was fairly close on my estimate for Nov nav. Of course we do not know what dealings in quoted may have taken place since last NAV
I'm using the same approach, but quite a difference in our values! Either way - things are looking pretty good here, you just have a slightly more optimistic figure.
I have a simple spread sheet with holdingas and pri=ce at last NAV and current. US stocks have risen, PLE is down.
Just as an aside, if you haven't already checked it out, the Biotech growth trust (BIOG) is a pretty good way to add a core biotech holding. It won't expose you to the huge gains that single stocks will, but it's a consistent performer. It also carries much lower risk/volatility. I took up a position pretty much straight after reading cracking the code and have been very pleased with performance to date. It's nothing related to JM, but it's clearly a well informed vehicle for the biotech sector. I like having this as a 'core' holding which I don't really need to monitor. As I say, you may well have already looked at this, or it may not be your cup of tea - but thought it worth mentioning.
What starting point are you all using for your calculations? I'm starting from NAV update here: http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-detail.html?announcementId=11745813 Based on my (simplistic) calculations using the holdings listed in that announcement - I make the NAV at close of play on 7 January 2014 to be 16.76 pence using the 'neutral' assumption that unquoted holdings have remained flat. Using a prudent assumption that unquoted holdings have lost 50% of their value, I make the NAV to be 13.49. Even for the prudent case, this indicates an upside of just under 10%. This doesn't sound amazing, but it's not bad for 'free'. It's likely that the NAV is closer to the neutral estimate, and if you are the optimistic type - the companies held by PEBI have good prospects through 2014, so can expect an appreciation in NAV over the period. As I've said before, I still don't have a holding here - but will definitely look to buy in if and when funds become available. Anything around this price is a strong buy from my point of view, so well done to all who are holding currently.
18.8p is good considering PLE's drop although the American shares have more than mitigated that. It's a mystery regarding the unquoted shares and I have a feeling that one day we'll be pleasantly surprised. Please keep posting as we are a lonely bb !!!!
Thanks for sharing I will take a look although stake building here is my key to investing in Bio Pharma, I do have positions in IMM and SCLP too but PEBI is much lower risk. Thanks
Apologies folks, apart from the other errors, the main one being it should have stated - Palatin Technologies Inc. (PTN) -NYSE MKT
This is the vp if anyone's interested, I'd like to hear what you think once you've reviewed and researched yourselves with your own thoughts. The section which i refer starts right on the 36mins time line. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gcGR5aon2DU
Hi Vegas99, I haven't managed to take that position yet, need to free up cash from other stocks, but waiting on good news from the one's i have, but i'll hopefully get in before the last week of the month. These boards are about sharing info, and although I wouldn't consider myself as technical as a lot of folks here, including yourself, the time taken along with the good info posted sure helps folk like me. Thanks to all for sharing. This leads me to this potential newbie - I had recently watch a video presentation by Jim Mellon start of December, on that vp he mentioned about a couple of new deals, one was stated as 'Company X' so that got me thinking and researching the possible candidate. Company X had completed phase II and was moving onto phase III, the drug relates to FSD. He is planning to take to company to the IOM, know doubt to do with IP and subsequent taxes and the like. So that got me thinking, did my own research, and from the info it looks like that company may be called Technologies Inc. (PTN) -NYSE MKT - i've taken a position there myself given my own research. As always DYOR - but I think it worth sharing to like-minded folks.
NAV. My model shows an increase of 10% since November- my estimate is 18.8p. That is quoted only. NAV should be announced last week in Jan. Hard to know what unquoted will be valued at, so could be further upside.
Market waking up, NAV update due soon.
I estimate circa 21p based on the ones listed god knows how all the rest will be factored in.....I think investors buying now and holding for NAV cash or joining the Magna fund with NAV value are sitting on a gold mine. Remember this fund mirrors Jim Mellons investment portfolio and there will be a few gems which will do a PLE, SUUM, ARWR etc etc in 2014. I hope for 50p+ in Nov.
Hi- I do not think CGT will apply to the fund on the merge into Magna Fund. I do not beleive it will be treated as a disposal for CGT purposes as the assets in PEBI are been merged into Magna and the shareholders are swapping shares for units. The only scenario I see where CGT could be due is on the Cash Option, if PEBI have to sell Investments to pay the Cash element. In that case, that profit element would I think be Taxed as a disposal as usual, PEBI is not an Authorised Investment Trust. Hope all well and best wishes for New Year. On a different note and (sorry to the bord off topic )do you know anything about Tradelink in HK?
duhhhhhh, just seen the much more up to date NAV calc @ 30 september 2013. Silly silly! Will have a look at this instead haha.
Wonder when an update will come... Strong performance based on the core holdings in the NAV calc as at 31 March 2013. If they were held in the same proportions, they are up 68% (overall). Note that these holdings only made up 50% of the portfolio. Will have a better look at some point for more up to date / more detailed holdings, was just having a quick check. Anywho - strong indication of an upside based on current NAV / Share price.
Vegas is right, for instance Arrowhead (ARWR on the NASDAQ) is up 414% in the past six months. We do hold a sizable chunk of PLE and SUMM, I'm invested in the former and also in PEBI. Really hoping this will make up for some awful losses in JLP, BLVN and RRR. If anyone is interested in gold producers that are doing well check out Amara. Atb
It's my understanding that as normal with any cash/profit from shares any CGT would be paid by the individual obviously depending on how much profit they have made versus the threshold limit. I spoke to the company and although I didn't ask this specific question was very happy with the logic and it confirmed my thoughts as a great low risk/good return opportunity. Check out the sp performance of the American shares.
Hi, thanks for inout regarding KDR, bought in to TYM, a few weeks ago,good things happening there. Thought I'd better reply on this bb, in case I get accused of promoting other stocks on different bb. Keep checking in here every now and then and reading info from yourself and oldstockbroker and others, thanks. and hope everyone has a successful trading year in 2014 Have been spreading my investments amongst various other stocks, SULA, SAV etc. but when profits are realised will be topping up in PEBI
An interesting situation. Have you factored in any potential capital gains tax to be paid by the fund (PEBI) on merging into Magna Fund? That might well account for part of the existing discount to NAV continuing. Or am i wrong in my assumption?
Thanks for that info.
Because of the deal agreed to cash in or enter the Magna fund next year the sp doesn't actually matter if holding till then (which I am) it's the NAV which is important as investors will get NAV cash or Magna fund equal value.