Charles Jillings, CEO of Utilico, energized by strong economic momentum across Latin America. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Https://icsid.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/parties_publications/C3765/Claimant%27s%20Response%20to%20the%20Respondent%27s%20Requests%20under%20ICSID%20Arbitration%20Rules%2028%281%29%20and%2039%281%29/Legal%20Authorities/CL-13.PDF
Information on timelimes. Quite good on average.
Once they have hearing takes over 1 year to get answer. But we can have lovely run up to 20pct of final claim qnd then derisk!
Lets keep to facts. I just wanted to show issues with corruption in area we are claiming against.
I
These people will end up in jail,they hide money in there houses,i wont name who but i know of a person with suitcases full of money under her bed,, when they raided her business they also raid there houses at the same time,i quess if its to much for the mattress ,suitcases will have to do... modi said he would get the billionaires to pay some tax,note not more but some,corruption is a way of doing business,look who gets the large contracts for cement,building roads etc,,then when the flyover collapses after 1yr killing the people working/living under it then they investigate the quality (lack of)of the concrete and people name ,names to get a shorter sentence...
I think the corruption will always be there no matter who is in control.
It just gives a little more help for us to believe we have a solid case :)
Interesting find Gallmat. Looking at the dates of those article though last year, I am sure someone else posted up earlier this year that the old Government were voted out and a new PM etc. was appointed who vowed to change things for the greater good of the country.
Happy to be corrected if I imagined reading about this on here, but if it is the case, and a new PM is now in power, be nice to hope (dream) that first act of proving change is providing a settlement to PAT and not drawing this out into a long winded process.
Https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/jaipur/now-meena-alleges-a-scam-in-e-auctions-of-mines-in-5-years/articleshow/101177226.cms
The more you read the less you expect a settlement. But nice that corruption is openly an issue.
I think we have two options @Dbush & Shear you have both summoned them
up perfectly.
I am more with Dbush, however if it runs the full course as per ShearClass I am happy too.
Definitely not selling.
Sheer class.
Maybe you are right. Sacrafice some upside on the case and have some assets to protect us on the downside. I will think about it.
Many thanks for comments
I have been watching proceedings here including the auction of Bhukia and my thought is that the Indian side are concerned regarding the claim under the treaty and are testing the water to find out how much they would get for the licence if they sold it before they make an offer to Indo gold
the results of the auction will not be available to all parties, they will make sure of that,armed with this information they will make a derisory initial offer.
If the auction indicates they could recover £1billion then they will offer 10% this will be turned down and ultimately they could offer £400million leaving them with a nice figure of £600million.
If a deal is done each party will pick up there own fees, we will pay out the 15% and other fees of about £10million . the indians will have minimal legal fees
We could end up with just over £300million keep £100million for investments and working capital and distribute the balance to shareholders around £1.35 a share I would be happy with that as not only would you get the special dividend but also the remaining company share value would rise for the remainder to at least ten times what it is worth today.
All of this could happen over the next few months
The submission of the claim is going to be interesting, you never know the indians may deal before it is issued.
I am not selling any of my holding and anticipate a settlement in the next few months
I would be interesting if anyone can access the auction results
I think boards shareholding also cannot be judged as we progress there will be share options etc.
Hoping for best and planning for the worst.
They did it but still suboptimal.
Raising 4m gbp to dilute 15pct on 600m gbp.
Is that 4m worth 90m.
2 approaches.
Invest 4m now. Maybe turns into 16.
Sell assets now. Spend extra 90m gbp at end to buy advanced asset.
The sensible approach is clear it is about management alignment.
Close up shop. Put it on maintaince and for all i care they go work in other companies for 4 yrs.
"I think it has value, but have worry about dilution."
GreenX have followed the exact same path as PAT appear to have ahead of them. Periodically raising capital at increasing share prices as their litigation process proceeds & using this capital to fund their other projects. It has worked just fine over there, with shares up 10x on where they were in the month preceding LIT funding receipt and trading at ~20% of the claim value.
If PAT need £2m per annum going forwards(what they've raised in the last 12 months) and raise at incrementally higher levels each year, then dilution will be minimal vs the claim quantum / any negotiated settlement amount.
I.e. Later this year let's assume they raise £2m at 20p, that would result in 10m new shares at a market cap of £35m, which equals just 4.5% of a $1b claim quantum
2025 £2m at 40p = 5m shares = 9% of a $1b claim quantum
2026 £2m at 60p = 3.33m shares = 15% of a $1b claim quantum
That would mean total dilution of just over 10% from current levels vs a 1000% increase in the share price (and still leave a market cap lower that GRX currently sits...)
Even if you halve those numbers it's still immaterial vs the potential reward.
The key is the rerating to a more appropriate market cap, the risk vs reward looks massively asymmetric to me.
Plus the fact the BOD own just under 10% of shares in issue and the CEO is on record on a podcast saying that avoiding dilution is absolutely critical...
Banging my possible early settlement drum again!..Dilution won't be a problem.
I thought aim is all about generating cash to some extent, also MB has said on numerous occasions pat are very conscious on dilution. It has to be controlled with progress.
I think it has value, but have worry about dilution.
If we win the case, we become a cash shell. We could choose lots of farm in opportunities at that time.
I don't see a 20% stake in a project with $18m of secured funding as a distraction. Cascades updated MRE will come this year and tell us whether it's feasible (2-3moz).
The company should be split into 2 entities.
1. With litigation
2. Other with mining.
We have sharea in both, they can then fund 1 properly without diluting 2
Not to forget, during the last two fund raise, the broker/ advisor took shares and options in lieu of the fees.
In my opinion just a bit of a distraction and possible dilution.
If we win and have capital you will easily be able to farm in to a good opportunity.
Copy that Pk73!
Don’t overlook the African assets @gall… they’re pretty good too!
the indian government followed ditto steps the ****stan government took with tethehan mining company. the latter was awarded $5.8 billion. however, the ****stan government could not afford this sum so in return for it to be waived, they awarded he licence to barrik gold, tetheyam being a jv company under barrik.
the cases are absolutely identical. moreover, one of the pat directors used to be a director with tethehan mining company. i forget his name but he is on linkedin. now you can see why we have him on board.
i think the rajasthan government had completely overlooked the mechanism of the india - australia bilateral treaty. by them winning the case in rajasthan high court and thereby expropriating the assets, they have done panthera a very big favour indeed.
Final thought for day.
Worst thing for junior miners is getting cash (the dilution). If we settle or get an award. You have a mining company that is a cash shell.
Surely they will be in a good position to pick a good project to partner on. With say 300m gbp in cash they might find opportunities to make even 50m a year on a sustainable basis. Or 4x our market cap now per year
I think people underestimate how nice this trade is vs others.
Painful now while we wait for damages amount.
But after that we do not need to worry about:Sales figures, politics, interest rates, competition.
Just that our case does not get thrown out. We dont even need to worry if we win. If we make it to a final hearing we will be multiples higher
Yeah they know exactly what they are doing IMO, but their strategy will be a masterstroke for PAT shareholders if the arbitration tribunal agree with the case we present. Frankly, I don't really care about how/when we get paid, all I'm interested in is the claim size & the verdict. I'd guess shares would hit 50% of claim size in the event of a positive verdict, I'd be happy to leave some for the next man at that stage...