We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
I have been here just under 12 months.
My average is around todays buy price.Happy with that as we know not much of that is given to Bhukia.
I have accumulated for the way up or early settlement.
So I have a decent amount I can sell in small amounts over a 3 plus year period ..hopefully (or ideally)if the sp hits 30p plus.Then be left with a decent amount for hopefully a special divy up.
Or if we get an early or partway through arbitration settlement a possibly special albeit lower dividend.
So either way I think the reward for me would be give or take the same.
Plus let's not forget with a special dividend we still keep our holding!
Btw lit.l the funder is very interesting
Market cap of 110. Have invested 65m ofnown cash in cases.
They ask for multiple on capital and get performance fees. By time 400pct profit for 2 yrs. 600pct profit for 3 yrs etc.
Won 90pct of past cases.
They had a i think around 75m gbp of cases at mature stage so with luck market cap might be equal to cash invested in cases in
Same as you @EJT.
I've 6 days from being in here 4 years... and aim to de-risk at the first sniff of a re-rate and then let the rest run for however long it takes..... well..... thats the thought process at the moment.
At these prices I'm slowly accumulating... Bitcoin profits might have to be bunged in here....
GLA whatever your strategy
PK.
We all know roughly why we buy and agree :)
We just have different viewpoints on it.
If multibags we should have a pint over zoom !!
In the Indian press there is plenty of chatter about the large discovery of Nickel , Cobalt etc in Bhukia.
I wonder if this will have an effect on the auction value or could there be a clause to the winning bidder...ie tax per tonne or similar.
Must be getting close to some form of news as the squabbles have started! ;-)
For the avoidance of doubt... I said in my previous post that the arbitration panel would convene, rather than conclude. Maybe 'convene' is an incorrect choice of word, but I'm under no illusion about timelines on this - it'll enter the arbitration sausage machine at that point.
This is my 3rd year invested in Panthera. Everyone has their own investment strategy, but hopefully we'll get an uplift on notice of arbitration and the claim amount, at which point I'm going to de-risk.
All the best, Ed
Don’t think that’s a far stretched strategy @sheer.
My post the other day alluded to them (probably quite illegally, and DEFO to grease govt palms) preferring to sell to a local Indian company rather than see it go overseas.
Your strategy here covers most if not all the bases….
Ps. Posting this link again in case it was missed last night
https://www.businessnews.com.au/article/The-Use-of-Disputes-Finance-in-International-Mining-Disputes
One option that wasn't discussed yesterday which is unlikely but possible; India auction off Bhukia for $1b and use a portion of this to offer PAT settlement?
I'd give it a 1% chance of happening, however it would explain why they are planning to sell it during the period when the NOA has been filed.
This strategy would be win win for everyone and avoid a drawn out process & Indian legal costs, however it shouldn't be completely dismissed IMO.
Like others, I'm 99% sure this is heading for arbitration, and am delighted to be able to buy PAT with the market currently given a 1-2% chance of winning the case :)
@etj,gall, jmuk 👍👍👍.
Lets just share info so we can all try and make money.
Can we try and avoid arguments.
Everyone can have their strategy and thoughts on timelines.
Lets use the board to state ideas and not criticise others.
All viewpoints are valid.
Well deckchair I'm actually an optimistic but realistic person but regardless there's no need for the petty little jibes just because it isn't what you want to hear. There is a lot of completely unrealistic optimism regarding timescales on this forum and when I read posts with incorrect info I will point out to be helpful and informative to others. If you don't like it just ignore, but being blindly optimistic won't make things go faster I'm afraid.
“The less people know, the more stubbornly they know it……”
At this point nobody, not MB, not LCM and certainly nobody on this board knows how this will play out or what the reaction of the goi will be.
So far, I think we are in agreement on here that we are confident of a positive outcome be it in the low 100m or over a couple of bill for bhukia alone.
That’s the beauty of the game… with the number of theories of time taken and amount, somebody on here is right about at least a part of it. I’m sure we will get ‘told you so’ when the time comes.
Me?? Don’t care if the sp goes to a quid or ten. Don’t care if it’s 2 months or 5 years… what will be will be…
I am, confident, however, that at some point this ain’t gonna be a 7p share….l
GLA and keep the info and theories coming, whilst allowing space for different points of view…
Pk
@Gall or less if early settlement
This is a 4 yr play.
But it might not be risky at all for anyone after 2 months. Just depends on how you act and think about it.
JmUk.....sorry but your glass is only ever.......?
Ejt777, the arbitration will not be held within 2 months of it being lodged if that is what you are suggesting? We have to be realistic. Arbitration may be constituted within 2 months, but will likely be heard a year or so after lodging realistically. Then maybe another year or 2 of waiting for a conclusion. Then more waiting for payment and appeals. Could be 5 years+ and that is what I based my investment timescale on having seen this all play out before. I made a similar response to deckchair earlier but he was talking about hoping a claim will be settled out of court by June. Apologies if I’m telling you stuff you already know, but wanted to clarify just in case you think you’ll be a millionaire in a few months 🤣
Great posts Shearclass and Gallmat
This is a MUST READ article posted a couple of days ago;
https://www.businessnews.com.au/article/The-Use-of-Disputes-Finance-in-International-Mining-Disputes
Input from the LCM CEO & specifically references Panthera.
Can't copy and paste annoyingly, however this para is key;
'For established funders, one key criterion is whether the damages estimate for a case is realistic - this is, the value of the investment which has been expropriated by or targeted by a governments breaching conduct. The decision to provide funding and to what extent, depends in large part of the estimate of that value. Thus the underwriting and due diligence process for a litigation funder may often include obtaining a damages expert's opinion"
This matches up to what I was saying the other day re. comparing the A$18m / $12m funding given to Prairie / GreenX and the $13.6m funding for PAT, and the value of the claim. On this basis the $1b for PAT makes sense vs the GRX claim of £737m.
This sentence is also important; 'with a litigation funder involved, the chances of success of a claim can only improve by reason of this rigorous assessment by the lender"
Crazy that shares closed today at 7.25p mid vs the 8.5p on the day the LCM funding was confirmed last August & the 11.5p high reached last September.
IMO the wider market is asleep on PAT, at some stage this will change rapidly...
I will post less. Sorry i am taking over board. Apologise.
I just wanted to let you know i submitted questions to lcm for their investor meet presentation. Management often answer questions for around 20 mins and they are very good. I submitted these for us.
???????????s
For panthera resources case ( the gold case vs indian gov)
Can you explain.
1. Why can indian gov announces the intention to sell the disputed mining asset? Is this allowed or should it be frozen pending the arbitration?.
2. Does the indian governements own valuation of 1bn usd ( quoted in times of india by their geology service) help support the size of claim we might submit?.
3. Are there incentives for governments to take resources (this is similar to green ex). They can sell the projects to others, and then try and settle a case for a fraction of this via arbitration. If so does this activity give a good pipeline of cases for lcm. We saw articles on linked in about mining being a speciality for lcm
4. Once we enter arbitration is there still an opportunity for an early negotiated settlement or must the outcome be decided by tribunal?
I think there is a far safer way to play this if i am honest.
Good post.
I m
Why are people looking at technicals.
I purchased 5k and it moved alot.
I have no information.
If bad news comes it will tank if good it shoots up
Is there enough volume for technical analysis?.
@ejt ...I wish I knew...but Pat have played I think a very patient and professional strategy so far.
@shear your last post I agree with however IMHO I think we might see shorter timescales, however either way fine by me ..and as comrade Geng once said we can then all give ourselves a Pat on the back !