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If that was to me Seahawk?. You do know I'm invested here? I've been invested since I found out Farallons plan to recoupe their debt as soon as they were able. Now its repaid, I won't be selling. How's that for ramping?
To all those who say I'm wrong. Prove it.
GS
GS,
You and I, share some views and not others. In answer to the sale of shares, we can neither prove nor disprove that the Farallon debt owed by GB has been repaid and so it is perfectly feasible that there may be a continued sell down. However, in order to service the debt owed to Farallon, the higher the SP then the fewer shares will need to be sold to compensate debt servicing and repayment costs.
As to Pander's conundrum @ 18.11, it's almost unsolvable. Head says cash out and realise your gain. Heart says I may make more if I stay, if the price goes up again, head says , but you may lose some of the gain if the SP dips. Compromise? Go with the head and take some profit, bank it, and leave a stake in the game, for the heart, that you're happy to lose if the SP were to drop and never recover. If good news comes along and you're confident of getting back in, only do so if you're happy to lose your stake. At least you cashed a profit earlier. All of this sounds like common sense, but I'd hazard a guess that almost all of us are guilty of playing this particular conundrum and getting it wrong. Who is to say that my theory is any better than anyone else's?
My own view, whatsit on the block, is that the SP has a little way to go yet before we're at 'stick or bust' time.
Negatives: Possible fund raise ahead of the next drill which could cause dilution and a dip in the SP. The next drill is a duster.
Positives: A short term increase in SP ahead of the drill, which at least compensates the dilution as is often (though not always) the case - a good point to re-evaluate ahead of drill results. An already positive (though not yet proven) resource estimate suggesting a successful drill outcome which would lead to a positive revaluation of the SP and an ultimate position way ahead of where we are now, potentially leading to multiple(s) of the current SP. (The RISKY bit). Do I believe that the results will be good enough to enhance the SP beyond the speculative rise ahead of the publication of the results???
Back to risk/reward scenarios - is it better to cash out on all , leave the whole stake in on a high risk play or do a bit of both to retain some profit whilst leaving an affordable stake in the game? This is all highly personal and is all about affordability and your own attitude to risk.
Where do I currently stand?
The current published results from the Talitha-A well give me a great deal of confidence in this oil play (let me just confirm that this is from the viewpoint of my own DD as an amateur investor, reading the information to hand in the public domain). Interestingly, our near neighbours at 88e appear to be taking confidence in the Talitha oil bearing strata extrapolating into their own leased positions. They appear to have similar belief in the positive Talitha results.
What am I going to do next?
Re-appraise my investment strategy at every stage of the process, from fund raise/dilution, FO to spud. From then on, it could be heads
cont.
or tails.
Apologies for the length of this missive.
I used to enjoy signing in to have a read of people’s posts. If some of you are trying to turn this into a board no-one wants to visit, you’re succeeding. Some of you obviously have the need for attention and have the need to have an adverse effect on others. Perhaps it’s because it makes you feel better, dunno. The posts are so long, boring, offensive, childish, arrogant and pointless. Great movement today, £s’ very soon.
GLA
Ford707 22:39 - totally agree, some people really need to leave the keyboard alone and pop out for a pint and a real chat. However, cbaron and Scot the bore, not in my pub please.
Ford & Blade,
What's your problem?
Pander sought a view to assist him with his sell or stay conundrum, I simply attempted to assist him with some thoughts and my thoughts.
I'm not sure what there was in my answer that caused you a problem. I covered your next subject of the 're-rate' also.
Didn’t mention any names cbaron. Interesting how you feel the need to defend yourself. Just made a comment based upon the last few days worth of posts that I was catching up with. Every few days I catch up and it seems there are a handful of people constantly acting in the manor I described. Just an observation that I’m sure others find demoralising and boring as well. We all let are emotions surface at some stage. Apologies if mine offended you.
GLA
10.23
Perhaps be a little braver next time, if you have criticisms to make, tell us who you're aiming them at. Then we're all clear.
You know how I feel about you bud.