Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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09:00
Well, Stas20, I suggest you watch the webinars again because you clearly didn't pay attention. You have incorrectly quoted the NPV of the proposed "take or pay" gas contract and then mistakenly gone on to use that figure as the target required for PANR to move to FID and self-financing of Ahpun. Facts, not guesswork, Stas20. You should try it sometime.
Quote to me in my post-webinar content where I have stated PANR is negotiating with more than one OFS firm? You can't because I wrote no such thing. I deal in facts, and happily so. You do not.
So stipulated that not all plans come to fruition.
Question for you, Stas20. Say PANR closes on Day 1 at 35p, ok? On the morning of Day 2, there's an RNS or press release from Governor Dunleavy's office stating that the Alaska gas pipeline from the North Slope to southcentral Alaska is to be built. What SP do you think PANR, as the most leveraged play on the proposed pipeline, will close at on Day 2? I guesstimate 80p minimum, very possibly over 100p.
It is that jeopardy which blows to smithereens your favoured outcome as described in your post below.
Meanwhile, back at the ranch, what do you calculate 88E's cash at hand will be at the end of April after they pay for this season's operations? Also, do you think there is even the smallest chance Burgundy will pony up their share of this season's costs?
Erm Scot, unfortunately for you, maybe in your typing of you lengthy posts, you missed some of my past ones here. I explained before, however I watched the recent presentation, oh yes all of it, Panr have lost one of the potential backers, only one left in the negotiation, the company has a plan but as we know, not all plans come to fruition.
If they are not funded in the way they hope then their only recourse will be equity, they know that and so do others, $250million is the requirement and to be honest I was generous to you, price now is 33.95p a 10% discount to that price (being generous again) would give a raise at lets call it 29p that is 862,068,966 shares. Additionally, based on the recent bond conversions that could add another 100 million shares, so getting towards a billion or doubling of the current share count. Any further drop in SP adds to that dilution and Mangrove don't seem to be to worried to be closing their short, in fact they may even up it.
My view is as people get to realise this they are likely to sell out to hold in cash till after the raise putting further pressure on the share price, its all pretty inevitable.
08:19
Stas20 - hmmm.....I'm not entirely convinced you're up to speed on this subject matter. Tell you what, I'll give you a helping hand. Go to YouTube and have a listen to PANR's two most recent webinars. You'll become informed about PANR's "live negotiations" with a "large" OFS firm.
You'll also learn about PANR's Exec Chairman's negotiations with the AGDC (Google it, Stas20) and the State of Alaska. *If* the gas pipeline is given the go-ahead that would see PANR parlay its long term (20 years?) take or pay gas contract into a govt/AGDC backed loan facility with a financial institution. PANR's Exec Chairman confirmed that the *potential* size of the facility could mean there would be little or no further requirement for equity finance to get the project to a self-financing stage.
Lots more research required by you, Stas20. Enjoy the webinars. Oh, and be sure to read PANR's RNSs too. You'll like them.....loaded with data, very transparent.
Whilst the Panr trolls seem unable to stop themselves on the 88e board perhaps they should be reminded of their own precarious position.
The large placing that's coming here, soon to dilute by about 50% if all the cash is needed.
Indeed the recent drop from high has just added another circa 100 million shares to the count, not including the 100 million from the bonds so by my calculation we are on around another 835,000,000 shares to come. The Mangrove Partners will be pleased.
If they announce that the only surviving partner has left the building, then multiple by that by a factor of 3 if they don't get it in before the SP drop.
21:49
Hi ZBB - it's great news, isn't it? The Biden administration appears to be limiting the search for new O&G fields on the NPRA and ANWR in Alaska. This, in turn, increases the value of O&G assets located on State of Alaska land such as PANR's acreage and 88E's Project Phoenix (providing it's deemed commercial).
In case you're also referring to the Biden administration's moratorium on constructing new LNG export infrastructure, the proposed Alaskan LNG export terminal has already been approved, license granted.
Thanks for playing.
Why is no one mentioning Bidens latest attacks on Alaska Oil and Gas? Surely that has had an effect on prospects of developing the discoveries, both for 88E and PANR?
11:29
How many stock barrels of oil and what were the choke sizes so that have a direct comparison.
My best guess is that their acreage would be difficult to finance development in the short term, maybe it could form part of PANR's long term plan when many drills have already taken place. 7-10 years perhaps, and only if considered attractive enough.
As they say...Location Location Location :)
Sheldon
Its the latest SMDB result, it only has 4 barrels of oil in the tank, after 16 hours of oil flowback, and then they stopped the test.
As a compare PANR tested the same reservoir up dip where the porosity is better, and flowed an average of 45 bopd for 5 days, and that was with the hand brake on, to minimize flashing in the reservoir
I guessed it was the prospect of a large placing but I know little.
Can someone explain why 88e is dropping so much ? There are so much conflicting posts that my head is spinning.
We had the old one pint, two straws debate some years ago whilst considering shared reservoirs across a common boundary and we're clear that there will need to be an equitable agreement as to how that resource is shared. Regulators will make those determinations, thus avoiding 'obfuscation' and 'cruel spin' and 'approbrium'.
I'll accept that it is not a 'fight' between shareholders (I called it a 'pi..ing contest') when you, for one, take a step down off your soap box. We all get data, maths, probability, etc. - let's face it with you banging on, how could we not?!
07:53
No, cbaron, that is not the way the O&G sector works and nor is it the way the equity markets work. Price discovery is essential in establishing fair value. To have a joint owner of reservoirs obfuscate at best, cruelly spin at worst will only attract opprobrium from wider market analysts/commentators when they see intellectually bankrupt reports that these results have a positive or negative effect on PANR's numbers and investment case.
When are you going to accept that this is not a fight between shareholders, as you so naively describe it. This is about data, truth, risk/return, maths, probability, value, research.
...........oil flow from common horizons only a few hundred metres from our licence boundary. what is not to like?
this ****ing contest for no good reason is becoming tiresome.
congratulate 88e and take all of the good news coming out of it for our own benefit in the better part of those same reservoir horizons within our own acreage.
It's good new for panr as well , look at the bigger picture scot .
Gman93 01:24
Hickories SMDB, 4 barrels of oil in the stock tank, with 16 hrs of flow post the commencement of oil flow, is very poor IMO. Average it out, its only one quarter of a barrel an hour, and average daily rate of 6 bopd.
The way 88e has presented this the average Joe will only see the peak flow of 50 bopd headline, and not calculate back.
If they did, its 50 bopd for ~ 2 hrs, and the other 14 at zero, or the more sensible 1/4 barrel per hour average for 16hrs
It is a win for PANR, not in extension of their productive cut off line further south necessarily, although it may allow a minor tweak. The big gain is pure data, in particular the lower GOR at Hickory, is a positive to PANRs southerly SMDB section
It's good new for panr as well , look at the bigger picture scot .
01:24
Gman93 - best you head off an investigate the effects of Dmax on the downdip portions of already tight-ish reservoirs.
I repeat for the umpteenth time, it is entirely irrational for a downdip, Dmax affected, lower classification 88E barrel in the ground to be trading at a premium of 25%-100% to an updip, higher classification PANR barrel in the ground.
The market is already waking up to this. Stick tot he science, Gman93.
No, BOBHOPE, I believe in science and facts. You can toddle off and try to ensnare other folk into your web of misinformation. This forum won't be buying what you're selling. Members are too well informed.
Scot, since the results were announced you and Older are the highest posters on the 88E forum - both say you are not invested? strange behavior
Don't understand why you are constantly arguing PANR is better. Nobody is saying they are not on 88E. As much as you offer insight and expertise, you both just seem constantly argumentative. To the point, even shareholders of PANR are growing sick of you.
It's good new for panr as well , look at the bigger picture scot .
00:47
BOBHOPE - don't you find it interesting only 4 barrels of oil were collected in the stk tank over the course of the SMD-B flow test? Add that to the 24.8 barrels collected in the SFS flow test and it's almost 30 barrels! Downdip and Dmax effect are now clear. Pity.
I see at least one liar has posted on the 88E forum that "Pantheon Directors Jay and Bob have said that there is no effective difference in reservoir Quality between Panr wells and Hickory."
Let me be a thousand per cent clear about this matter before it gains any credibility whatsoever. Jay and Bob have said no such thing. The poster was challenged by olderwiser and me to provide a citation or source for this made up fantasy and of course it's now radio silence.
However the market reacts to the second flowtest at Hickory-1, be under no illusion that PANR's base case numbers will not change by one barrel downwards. PANR used the Talitha #A data for their base case numbers and did ***not*** include the acreage south of Talitha #A towards the southern boundary with 88E in its guidance numbers.
As David Hobbs stated correctly, Hickory-1 was a free hit for PANR.
Jay and Bob have described the characteristics of the SMD-B reservoir
The biggest impact will be on our stock price. To this point we don’t have a reputable third party willing to put capital at risk for the opportunity Pantheon presents. That’s a killer when trying to access capital markets. That all changes when Pantheon secures $120M to $150M of vendor financing. It means that equity financing becomes more attractive. Nothing succeeds like success.