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It’s looking very likely that as other members have stated funding will be required imminently. At what discount and at what cost to shareholders. The nervous wait and uncertainty looms, well you could play safe I suppose… IMHO DYOR GLA
20:43
Indeed Triumph1. To help you out with this conundrum of yours, here's (hopefully) a decent summary of the PANR BoD's guidance on exactly this issue. This info was contained in recent RNSs and webinars, all freely available for you to access.
1) Vendor finance; quite a simple deal if executed. The vendor, described as a "large" OFS firm agrees to provide, for example in this post, drilling services (kit and personnel maybe?) to the amount of US$XXX. I think the latest guidance was that "negotiations are live". That's it.....reporting accurately. No exaggeration, no making stuff up, no gilding the lily...88E should try it some time. We were also informed about the prime motivation for retaining Lee Keeling and Cawley Gillespie to complete IERs on the Ahpun ZOI and Topset (Alkaid ZOI and SMD as was) rather than waiting for the end of Q2'24 for NSAI's report to be completed. It was due to the large OFS firm looking forward to receiving the independent conclusions of both firms before signing as deal (hopefully). Interestingly, I've done a bit of digging. Both PANR and 88E know of Lee Keeling as we've read the conclusions of their IERs previously. Cawley Gillespie is used by Hilcorp for some of their Alaskan work. Lee Keeling, of course, was originally referred to Great Bear by Halliburton. I'm sure you didn't know that, so have that one on me.
2) The guidance on the potential gas pipeline is as follows. Have a read of the RNS dated 28/3/24 first of all. To give you an idea of potential daily revenue *if* the gas is sold at that contract price, it's about $500k per day. Useful, eh? We were also told that PANR's gas is very low in CO2 which is an attractive/required characteristic for the pipeline. Timing? Exec Chairman thought there'd be news by the end of Q2'24. If you listen to a couple of interviews given by Gov Dunleavy in the last couple of weeks (CNBC and CERAWeek) he also talks about "in the next couple of months we'll hopefully have some news about the pipeline."
Structure. Happy to be corrected but here's my understanding from listening to the webinar. In return for PANR signing a long term (20 year?) take or pay contract, the SoA/AGDC/Alaskan utilicos will act as guarantor or arranger of a finance facility of *up to* $250m from which PANR may draw on to move the project forward. Please be aware (unlike Stas20) that formal guidance is for a maximum of $120m being required to arrive at Ahpun FID and to secure a self-financing model for Ahpun.
Remember all this can happen because PANR has already classed its Ahpun and Kodiak assets as ***commercial*** following the collection of data from 6 GB/PANR wells and other historic wells such as PS1. It took 14 years and hundreds of millions of dollars to reach this data threshold => declaring commerciality. I look forward to reading how 88E plans to continue that journey.
Let's diarise to review this strategy at the end of June, ok?
Well the good news is all the directors holding means we are aligned regards dilution. Some directors have been significantly diluted since the Great Bear days so I can't see them wanting more. When you are likely looking at 3-4B bbls there is room for dilution.
The big question over here is all about the cash. Funding funding funding. How will PANR fund to production?
Clearly, the market expects significant dilution and isnt buying buzzword fluff about "mutually beneficial agreements" and "advanced talks".
It would be foolish to not expect significant dilution here. The question is, how much of the company will be left for current shareholders? Enough to make it worth holding? Some clearly dont think so, evidenced by price action here.
I personally hate it when directors state "keep dilution to a minimum". Whats their definition of minimum? Probably not the same as shareholders. So many times this phrase has been uttered, but shareholders completely wiped out.
18:45
Thanks for swinging by, MadEnglish. Please note that at no time has olderwiser, Rabito79 or I posted infantile drivel like "Get out now" or "Sell your PANR while you can". Nope, we provide fact checks and corrections, and calculations with full working. Unlike so many on the 88E forum, we also provide citations and sources for out statements.
Tell you a funny story which happened earlier today. You'll double over laughing! One of the 88E posters reported a poster called MunnieTorx for stating that Hickory-1 was being P&A'd. He was furious, demanding a source for MunnieTork's statement. Wait 'til you here this.....I was able to copy and paste a sentence from 88E's RNS dated 15/4/24 where 88E management itself informed the market it was P&Aing Hickory-1. Tough market when shareholders can't even be bothered reading their own RNSs, eh?
Now that you're here, I have a couple of questions for you. What do you calculate 88E's cash at hand will be at the end of April after they pay for this season's operations? Also, do you think there is even the slightest chance Burgundy will pony up their share of this season's costs?
Don't forget to reply to the questions next time you're tempted to swing by!
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17:20
No wonder you're gulping, DrMicho. The prospect of a further noteworthy reduction in the SP of 88E must be of great concern. I feel for you.
Now then, why is it you keep forgetting to answer the following pertinent questions? Let me help you again - that's the type of thoughtful and generous guy I am!
Say PANR closes on Day 1 at 35p, ok DrMicho? On the morning of Day 2, there's an RNS or press release from Governor Dunleavy's office stating that the Alaska gas pipeline from the North Slope to southcentral Alaska is to be built. What SP do you think PANR, as the most leveraged play on the proposed pipeline, will close at on Day 2? I guesstimate 80p minimum, very possibly over 100p.
It is the jeopardy of the gas pipeline which places a massive question mark against your rumour-broking. Agreed? I just read on the 88E forum that you've opened a short position on PANR. Please be sure it's a full unit, DrMIcho. Just imagine, from this date until the end of Q2'24 you'll be waking every morning dreading any news from Governor Dunleavy about the Alaska gas pipeline being given the go ahead. *If* that happens, you will without any question, lose a huge amount of money on that short position.
Meanwhile, back at the ranch DrMicho, what do you calculate 88E's cash at hand will be at the end of April after they pay for this season's operations? Also, do you think there is even the smallest chance Burgundy will pony up their share of this season's costs?
Don't forget to reply to the questions next time you're tempted to post on this forum!
That wasn’t for you blue/red so keep yourself quiet…
Unpadded post for the new clowns: stop talking drivel.
Might hear something soon! Let’s hope any prospective fundraise won’t be too aggressive in nature. Why do you need to pad your posts out so much, you do realise most people just scroll past. See what tomorrow brings, gulp.
16:40
DrMicho - you clearly missed my earlier post timed at 16:24. Here, let me ask these pertinent questions once again.
Say PANR closes on Day 1 at 35p, ok? On the morning of Day 2, there's an RNS or press release from Governor Dunleavy's office stating that the Alaska gas pipeline from the North Slope to southcentral Alaska is to be built. What SP do you think PANR, as the most leveraged play on the proposed pipeline, will close at on Day 2? I guesstimate 80p minimum, very possibly over 100p.
It is the jeopardy of the gas pipeline which places a massive question mark against your rumour-broking. Agreed?
Meanwhile, back at the ranch DrMicho, what do you calculate 88E's cash at hand will be at the end of April after they pay for this season's operations? Also, do you think there is even the smallest chance Burgundy will pony up their share of this season's costs?
Don't forget to reply to the questions next time you're tempted to post on this forum!
Theres been a drop in SP that blatantly points to a little uncertainty surrounding needed funds... Scot ramping away for his life trying to suck in new investors so they can lose money instantly. I agree, a 20% discount would be a fair starting point. Big risk and big losses..
Thanks for your posts, Owl, Stas and Micho.
A question for you all. Say PANR closes on Day 1 at 35p, ok? On the morning of Day 2, there's an RNS or press release from Governor Dunleavy's office stating that the Alaska gas pipeline from the North Slope to southcentral Alaska is to be built. What SP do you think PANR, as the most leveraged play on the proposed pipeline, will close at on Day 2? I guesstimate 80p minimum, very possibly over 100p.
It is the jeopardy of the gas pipeline which places a massive question mark against your rumour-broking.
Meanwhile, back at the ranch, what do you calculate 88E's cash at hand will be at the end of April after they pay for this season's operations? Also, do you think there is even the smallest chance Burgundy will pony up their share of this season's costs?
Look forward to hearing back from you!
Normally a placing will see a good -20-40% haircut
DrMicho, yes quite likely and it could be large, all depends on if they get financing, but having already lost one contender and now only one left in the ring, chance of a placing is high and the lower this price drops the lower the placing and likely the discount achieved to get one away.
Is there a placing due???? Looks like this will be subby 30 if that happens....take your chances. I would personally hold off, its dropped 15% in a few days, placing???
Make that 150k, sirmark! Over to you.
Well done Scott, my sell order is still with my broker due to the size but nothing back yet :(
Sorry, Sirmark, just bought 100k shares. Sadly PANR has been hit by the wash of 88E's disappointing flow data from their downdip location. This is too cheap with 2x IERs incoming about Ahpun.
Lol Scot
"Quote to me in my post-webinar content where I have stated PANR is negotiating with more than one OFS firm? You can't because I wrote no such thing. I deal in facts, and happily so. You do not."
Perhaps it is you that has problem with understanding, perhaps you need to first quote to me where I said you did?
As regards the 250 million, I know exactly what I stated its on slide 22 fyi
- Proposal for Pantheon to sell methane from its associated gas (ie excluding NGLs shipped through TAPS and delivered as ANS crude stream) at a base price up to $1 per mmBtu at exit to Ahpun Facility1
- Minimum 20 year take or pay (ToP) contract would provide borrowing capacity of up to $250 million at Ahpun FID (50% of Real Post Tax NPV12.5)
Note a proposal, may not even come of but the intention is clear it is this proposal that -
"This is a key underpinning of our ability to mobilise non equity capital to support the development which is the lions share of the costs that we talked about as being required to get us through to cash flow break even and financial self sufficiency"
thus without this, then non equity raise is out and dilution by equity and a lot of it is assured.
Can we hold off buying for a bit please...just trying to get funds in ...lol
Lee Keeling Report due very shortly..... personally I'm looking to buy another 130k today !!
Can you point us to the post and also if you can point us to the post when you said to buy before the rise please as I can't find it !
TRUE TO FORM 33 did say at 45 take profits