We are delighted to announce that Robin Brundle, Chairman at Technology Minerals (TM1) joins Clifford Gross, Tekcapital (TEK), Mark Selby at Canada Nickel (CNC), and Werner Klingenberg, Goldplat (GDP) at our May Investor Webinar on Tuesday 24th. Please register here.
CharlotteB, I don't think there is anyone on this board who said there was not risk involved. The only one making predictions and bragging about correct calls was you. As others have stated your ability to predict the market has failed this time, given you bought in the 120 region, highlighting the perils of short term investing. Things like one sided broker notes can fall at any time and there is no way to predict them.
Good luck predicting near term events, I will continue to play the long game.
What I find interesting is that someone who has their own blog covering fundamental analysis, can come on here making factually incorrect statements about the information that's been presented.
The Tarn analogue was used as a depositional analogue to show that they understand the impact on reservoir quality of the different depositional features. Last night’s presentation focused more on porosity and permeability and compared against other commercial tight oil plays. They also provided details behind the modelling including permeability ranges (which you previously implied they were hiding, then implied they were estimating and have now concede they measured) to back up their claims of commerciality, which in the case of Alkaid was reviewed by LKA in their CPR.
Can you confirm which modelling you used in your previous claim ‘With such low flow it’s going to be a struggle to get an economic well even if horizontally fracked.’? My guess is you can’t because unlike Pantheon who have provided data points, industry recognised modelling and third party reviews you have provided nothing.
You are correct that there were no cores at Theta West, this has been discussed previously and would recommend for those wanting more background they read Tele’s post below on Reddit. However there has been VAS analysis and though we are yet to see all the details, confidence can be taken from Mike Smith’s 'World class reservoir' comments.
Also management have made no secret that there could be thousands of wells drilled to develop the reservoirs. What you fail to recognise is that the advantaged location of the plays make it possible for these wells to be highly commercial and likely better than others on the slope with ‘better’ reservoir quality.
Folks at about 10 minutes of the presentation you can actually here Michael Duncan say the 0.16 number is validated by ‘core measurements’.
Slide 25 of the below literally shows you where a side wall core sample was taken in Talitha
Slides 11 in below presentation shows sidewall core references from Alkaid, tied to the log data which troughsnout will no doubt ignore again.
I am afraid troughsnout posts are the only thing misleading here.
What utter rubbish troughsnout. The permeabilities are not estimated, the company have multiple core samples and have mentioned this at numerous times across previous presentations . On top of the core they have done significant independent analysis on the Cuttings with VAS. I suggest you go back and watch previous presentations before making anymore baseless claims. You could actually see a side wall core sample using some of the advanced imaging tools ran in Talitha. If I recall correctly they even had core from Pipeline State 1.
Again do you think LKA have put there name to a CPR without this data? LKA who were recommended by Haliburton. Unfortunately they have put this data out due to ill informed posts like yours.
If these wells don’t frac, why did Alkaid, SFS and LBFF respond to the fracs. Although you are partly correct in that it has been explained to me that fracs will propagate through the shale layers better and indeed they sometimes target these.
Most Alaskan cost issues are overcome when you can drill all year round, are situated literally on the TAPS/Dalton just 20Km from the the main supply chain centre on the North Slope (Deadhorse).
The company clearly gave the range of permeabilities witnessesed in today’s presentation, but like the issued logs in the last presentation this doesn’t appear to be good enough for you.
That's right red irons, so bitter and twisted I am providing other data points for others to draw their own conclusions from. As I stated I would genuinely like to see the long term holders benefit like 88e management and those who have traded it (Brombarb etc.).
Yep Brian, you keep parroting the information 88e have released. How did that work for you on Icewine 1 Unconventional Winx, Charlie, Merlin 1 and Merlin 2. There are essentially two scenarios here:
88e never knew about these plays = Gross Incompetence
88e always knew about these plays and never pursued them favouring the above failures = Gross Incompetence
09:18 Wow Brian, is that you honest opinion. 88e own more of the spoils, I am hoping you are being disingenuous opposed to plain stupid.
The diagrams do not show reservoirs they show 'fairways'. What is present in those fairways is yet to be proven. But if you are indeed a Pantheon holder you will know the following:
Pantheon have shown the Theta West play to stop not far south of their acreage border and believe they have captured 80% of the play (from 40minutes onwards https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hbnmarRCUcY).
Pantheon have stated the SFS on their acreage that there are 'two SFS lobes ' with 'two distinct trapping systems'. Is this depicted in the 88e fairway diagram?
88e have been very clever in comparing the shallower SMD-B target with Pantheon's Alkaid data which is a deeper play (on Pantheon acreage) and hit poorer quality sands at the edge of the reservoir (see slide 15 https://www.pantheonresources.com/investors/presentations/623-corporate-presentation-2019-1/file .)
Pantheon think that 'Dmax incraeses dramatically immediately south of thier acreage' (see slide 12 https://www.pantheonresources.com/investors/presentations/666-investor-presentation-april-2022/file)
Pantheon have previously referenced Theta West as a Lower Schrader Bluff BFF not a Seabee BFF as 88e are stating (see ~47mins https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5fFfNbtB8_k)
I genuinely hope that there is an extension of the plays into 88e territory as it might afford the GLTH a chance to make some money. It would be criminal if only those who have already traded out like Dave Wall, Erik Opstad, Brombarb make money here. But the long term holders would be best researching up on all information available than rely solely on 88e's interpretations.
What every the numbers are 88e will currently own 75% and are likely to farm out a considerable portion of the 75%
13.36 he is not that far of the mark if you are honest. Dave Wall, numerous share awards, buyout of a company he held shares in and then 'leaves' and proceeds to sell most of shares. Erik Opstad, not left but has short term traded shares in the company, and who's own the company was hired to oversee the last two years' drilling operations which were both overbudget and no where near the 'bang for buck' drills detailed at the time of the acquisition. The premise was that it was meant to be cheaper than shooting 3D and then when the failed they stated its difficult drilling off 2D.
It will therefore be interesting to see what the next step at Icewine East is, re-enter and flow test previous hole (if available), shoot 3D or drill off of 2D.
Pantheon's releases have intimated the importance of 3D in their appraisal. It also look like SFS is two discrete traps and therefore perhaps not as simple as the previous seismic pictures released by 88e. Also they have intimated they believe the DMAX drops off significantly to the south of there acreage. It appears this may be what 88e got wrong at Charlie 1
I must admit I find it strange the Brom is concerned about the tightness of these plays given the original 88e plays were unconventional. If they thought the unconventional was commercial then surely these plays should be better.
Yes Harry K, he is trying to look for a conspiracy where there isn’t one. The diagram was not meant to illustrate they had equal porosities or permeabilities, rather highlight they understand from Tarn learnings which depositional environments create the best reservoir. If you are trying to hide permeabilities you don’t publish logs showing the permeabilities data on them.
Our reservoirs are tight, it’s well known. Or it should be from anyone reading the posts which have been shared on this forum. The tightness is why our possible recovery numbers are between 20-30% and not higher as achieved elsewhere on the slopes. This tightness may have caused a problem regards economics if it were no for our location (thats why PANR repeat it three times). You can be assured LKA won’t have overlooked the permeability, the eSeis guys wouldn’t have overlooked it, Mike Smith won’t have overlooked it either.
Here is a good post from Tele on this matter
Charlotte, good luck with your short term trades, I understand everyone is entitled to trade as they see fit. The problem I have is the twisting of the narrative to suit your agenda. For instance in your last comment you mention, third party valuations. Two of the 4 reservoirs (Alkaid and SMD) have been independently valued by LKA, all be it the SMD was before the remapping process following Talitha A. LKA who we were told were picked specifically because of their expertise in multistage fracking.
In a similar fashion troughsnout has appeared to ignore this third party valuation and seems to be inferring Pantheon are hiding things. Strangely one being the permeability which is shown in the logs Pantheon published for SMD/SFS and LBFF (at Talitha). Likewise the assertation that a well flowing at a higher rate on the last day, than the average over the 2.5days, has shown a large drop off. This statement is simply illogical even before ignoring the significant volume of frac fluids being produced.
As for 120 being a good entry point, well it depends on your timeline, you are clearly working to diffrent ones than most others on this board. However given you think there is no doubt it will be worth billions in the future, one could argue you have answered your own question.
I read peak rates as slugs up to 100bbls, the final day stabilised at 59bbls which was higher than the average over the 2.5days. So the drop off you mentioned is certainly not represented in the oil rates, you don't end up with a stable flow higher than the average if you are dropping off. Plus the significant volumes of frac fluid suggest the flow potential is much higher, all be it you have to consider the rel perm affects discussed in Tele's piece.
Two of the reservoir discussed have had independent reviews carried out be Lee Keeling, one would like to assume the considered permeability, pressures and flow data (for Alkaid) in their assessments. and economic models.
Ah okay, so you were knowingly sharing false information to prove a point.
The webinar wasn't designed as a short term guarantee of anything, it was designed to explain the 2022 drilling campaign results and the way forward. Anyway, as you have probably noticed most people on this board don't really care about a possible dip of 10%-20% from recent highs as they are long term holders and not trading it like yourself.
If you are not Pro, you are someone that cut and pastes his post from Lse and shares the same misunderstanding that they are flow testing SMD at Alkaid 2 this summer.
Good luck with you trade, and more so your core holding. Hopefully you pay more attention to the technical information for your core holding than you do your trades.
You don’t see enough risk to sell your core holding though do you Charlotte/Pro. You are honestly the worst type of poster. Multiple aliases, lying about holdings and changing narrative to suit your agenda. Remember when you sold out at ~30p, thought you always called this right?
Do you still use your old moniker on Lse as well?
Sorry for repost but giving link it’s own subject which it deserves.
Another great post by Tele which elaborates on the Frac fluid rates and the significance.
‘What’s in a name?’
Quite a lot it would appear, as Pro has sold out yet Charlotte maintains a core holding. Charlotte has made 1 correct prediction and Pro has made multiple wrong calls. Pro is apparently risk averse, yet Charlotte is maintaining a core position despite the risk increasing. It’s almost like you are making it up as you go along.
Troughsnout, where did is the following 'fact' from?
'But the fact that the flow was low to begin with and fell rapidly suggest that permeability beyond the frac wings may be pretty low.'
I can find no evidence for this statement. The following is from the Theta West RNS.
'After the initial encouraging oil flow rates, the Theta West #1 well was shut in due to the arrival of the storm. The well flowed high quality, light 35.5-38.5 degree API gravity oil at rates that averaged over 57 barrels of oil per day ("BOPD") with peak rates exceeding 100 BOPD over 2.5 days. Over the final day prior to shut-in the well was averaging approximately 59 BOPD.
So the last day oil rate of 59 was above the average of 57bbls per day. Furthermore yesterday we heard for the first time that alongside the ~50bbls of oil per day the well was still producing 'hundreds' of bbls of frac fluids on the final day (~1h 49M in presentation) so the total flow was not low as you state and the oil rate would have likely increased over a longer duration.