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Ah Troughsnout, the ex fund manager who claims Pantheon have too much gas but will be reliant on buying 'not inexpensive' nitrogen for gas lift.
But who knows maybe his finger in the air flow rate predictions based on his zero years industry experience, minimal knowledge and minimal data will prove right and industry experts at SLB with decades of experience, masses of knowledge and all the data will be wrong.
Always amuses me when the finance guys have a go at the science. Can I get a 'heterolithic'!
Musk, it's funny how you are happy to use the PANR market cap as a benchmark but take great offence at people pointing out the differences between PANR and 88e. Pantheon have already flow tested more than ten fold the resources that 88e are testing this winter, perhaps you need to take that into consideration?
Classic Brevarthan research, 1 day after the interims are released he claims cash is just over $5M. From yesterday's RNS:
'Cash on hand 15 March 2024: $8.7 million'
Turns out its not SLB producing the 'fantasy' numbers after all, it's Brevarthan. He must have thought they have been buying 'expensive' nitrogen. Jesus wept.
Oh an you are the troll.
Tony, note that's not the last line of the RNS, there is further information in the body of the report.
'The Company intends to provide an update on its overall financing initiatives over the coming weeks. As previously disclosed, Pantheon is in discussions with vendors, offtakers and other parties about the potential to provide non equity finance the Company in order to progress its project development at minimal equity dilution to shareholders. As previously discussed, Pantheon estimates $120 million is required to get to first production, comprised of three wells conservatively at $20 million each, $20 million to upgrade facilities, $20 million for a hot-tap into TAPS and $20 million for three years G&A. Whilst some of these components will change higher or lower, for example G&A as the Company builds its team and incurs costs associated with a US listing, at a combined level the Company remains comfortable that $120 million remains a conservative and achievable estimate.
Heading into Q2 of 2024, Pantheon is proceeding with determination, doing the small but necessary steps to advance its exciting projects towards its stated objectives of FID, project development and value recognition. Management believe the project resource potential to be of a size and scale that is material by any global standard and are extremely pleased to have been able to strategically retain a 100% working interest in all of it. Management fully recognise that financing the development of such large developments is a key hurdle and are working diligently on that objective, recognising that once achieved, the pathway to commercialisation becomes clearer for all to see, and would be expected to see significant value recognition accrete to shareholders thereafter. The Board is determined in its efforts to achieve these goals.'
Tonynorstrom1, please see comments below regards financing from David Hobbs from today's RNS
'We're working relentlessly to optimise a funding platform for the Ahpun development and we look forward to providing the promised preliminary update over the coming weeks, with a goal of finalising our strategy by the end of Q2 2024.'
Spot on Munnietorx, the majority of Brevarthan's nonsense has been put to bed by Olderwiser and the latest info released by Pantheon in the recent tweet and website update.
It's astonishing a man with zero industry experience, minimal technical knowledge and with a minimal amount of the data can claim SLB, Lee Keeling & Associates et al are producing 'fantasy' flow rate and EUR numbers. He seems to think they may have overlooked things such as porosity, permeability and reservoir pressure when modelling flow rates and EURs.
He seems to want to use reservoir heterogeneity as the get out for everything. Ignoring Pantheon have multiple well penetrations in the SMD and full core from Pipeline state one, nearer to the heart of the SMD reservoir. Likewise he seems to want to ignore the Geomark recombined GOR data, the best and most accurate measure of GOR, as it doesn't suit his narrative.
I would be surprised and indeed concerned if he actually believed anything he wrote. Indeed I take encouragement that this is all he can muster. It's not quite Stahel's falsified document but it's not far off.
I think it's great news that Brevarthan Research (troughsnout) is on hear shouting placing, it's pretty much all the bears have left.
Brevarthan has previously written long and flawed pseudo technical notes which fall into the category David Hobbs would describe as 'very simple, very elegant and very incorrect'.
It's great he referenced the Geomark costs as it was this work which has shown his previous comments on the gas piece to be wrong. A shame he missed out the costs for the pressure bomb as the data it generated is what showed his comments regards porosity and permeability not improving in the SMD to be wrong as well.
SLB's modelling of our worst reservoir using measured data also blows his arguments regards commerciality out the water.
The NSAI report shows his 'resource inflation' argument is questionable also. I could go on.
Brevarthan much like OMJ, Josh Young, Stahel is another finance guy pretending he is an oil man but lacking the technical skill set to justify the claims he has made. So shouting placing now it is, progress indeed.
ASX flat and the US down. Clearly a UK based pump given increased messages here yesterday, even the US OTC crowd not buying it. They may yet though, time will tell
https://hotcopper.com.au/asx/88e/
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/eeenf
Triumph, so you don't think the market is aware of the flow tests carried out just to the north or that the SMD has already been proven to flow. The flow tests won't give sexy numbers, rather numbers that when scaled upwards could be commercial.
Any significant uplift will be reliant on the OTC punters most of whom have been burned already. Will be happy for 88e holders if I am proven wrong, but rocket ships abandoned 88e a few years back IMHO.
Shareguru, so its okay for you to discuss PANR (as per your last post) but not Scot?
I would imagine anyone who has done any decent research on here will be expecting a positive flow test, as is the market. Therefore a significant rise may be unlikely if its already the expectation. Pretty soon after any result the focus will be funding and 88e in my opinion don't have the resource size to fund through vendor finance as others are planning. Therefore they will likely be a price taker opposed to price maker in any development financing and need to farm out a significant portion of the resources or dilute significantly. I think this may subdue the price action relative to previous years.
Peakybrum, no the wells will continue to decline in years 2 and 3 although the slope will flatten and have a long tail. See slide 10 of below for a typical curve. Obviously we are starting off from a higher base than the curve.
https://www.pantheonresources.com/index.php/investors/presentations/667-investor-presentation-may-2022/file
Indeed Olderwiser and there is still significant improvement to come from updip Kodiak and the Easterm Aphun leases.
Average first year production is $51.1M per well (2000 x 70 x 365) .
It's tight, it's tight the shorts shouted. Yet none of them provided modelling to support there case, just rhetoric.
MW93, I fear its not as simple as that. If it's really likely to flow, and I think it is, then the market if expecting it and working rationally will not move much. As with Pantheon there we still likely be concerns about commerciality and funding. There of course may be a pump into results but these haven't been as strong in recent years post the OTC Merlin hype.
I suspect post flow test it could go quiet for a while on 88's Alaskan acreage, 88e will likely face the same problem which brought about Pantheon's change in strategy in that without funding 88e will be a price taker opposed to a price maker.
There will undoubtedly be value on 88e's acreage, but I fear it will more of a slow grind than some would think. Generally AIM, Aus and OTC market's don't like slow grinds.
Peakybrum, enjoy the AGM. Typically I am travelling back through London in the Thursday and will miss it by one day.
What I would like to see in the AGM presentation is estimates of EUR/flow rates from the better reservoir in the new leases. It would be good to not focus on the conservative base case estimates from Alkaid. As a reminder on upside just from Alkaid:
'Development studies by SLB indicate an alternative type curve for the Alkaid horizon substantially in excess of Pantheon's base planning case estimates. Utilising this analysis, Pantheon has created a best estimate using an IP30 of 2,700 bpd and EURs of 1.65 million barrels. Improvements seen in the shelf break horizons in Ahpun and the updip portions of Kodiak would see rates and volumes comfortably exceeding these.'
It's quite easy to get to 3-4B based on information released to date
NSAI Kodiak Old Leases - 1B
NSAI Kodiak Old Leases Upside - 1B ( achievable via further appraisal and removal of poro/perm cap based on Theta West.
New Kodiak Leases - >600M based on Pantheon estimate
Ahpun Alkaid - >100M (including conservative estimate for Alkaid Deep on top of LKA estimate for Alkaid)
Aphun Old Leases SMD - >400M management estimate.
Aphun New Leases - >350M
Total - >3.45B
This ignores SFS, Upper BFF and Kuparuk
Please note I did comment on James Simon's post on the 27th Dec & 00:30
'Kever, I will concede that James Simon's apparent threat of violence was uncalled for. However I can understand the frustration of fellow shareholders given the scale of short and distort tactics used by the likes of Stahel, Perry and indeed we can add you to that list now. '