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Triumph, so you don't think the market is aware of the flow tests carried out just to the north or that the SMD has already been proven to flow. The flow tests won't give sexy numbers, rather numbers that when scaled upwards could be commercial.
Any significant uplift will be reliant on the OTC punters most of whom have been burned already. Will be happy for 88e holders if I am proven wrong, but rocket ships abandoned 88e a few years back IMHO.
Shareguru, so its okay for you to discuss PANR (as per your last post) but not Scot?
I would imagine anyone who has done any decent research on here will be expecting a positive flow test, as is the market. Therefore a significant rise may be unlikely if its already the expectation. Pretty soon after any result the focus will be funding and 88e in my opinion don't have the resource size to fund through vendor finance as others are planning. Therefore they will likely be a price taker opposed to price maker in any development financing and need to farm out a significant portion of the resources or dilute significantly. I think this may subdue the price action relative to previous years.
Peakybrum, no the wells will continue to decline in years 2 and 3 although the slope will flatten and have a long tail. See slide 10 of below for a typical curve. Obviously we are starting off from a higher base than the curve.
https://www.pantheonresources.com/index.php/investors/presentations/667-investor-presentation-may-2022/file
Indeed Olderwiser and there is still significant improvement to come from updip Kodiak and the Easterm Aphun leases.
Average first year production is $51.1M per well (2000 x 70 x 365) .
It's tight, it's tight the shorts shouted. Yet none of them provided modelling to support there case, just rhetoric.
MW93, I fear its not as simple as that. If it's really likely to flow, and I think it is, then the market if expecting it and working rationally will not move much. As with Pantheon there we still likely be concerns about commerciality and funding. There of course may be a pump into results but these haven't been as strong in recent years post the OTC Merlin hype.
I suspect post flow test it could go quiet for a while on 88's Alaskan acreage, 88e will likely face the same problem which brought about Pantheon's change in strategy in that without funding 88e will be a price taker opposed to a price maker.
There will undoubtedly be value on 88e's acreage, but I fear it will more of a slow grind than some would think. Generally AIM, Aus and OTC market's don't like slow grinds.
Peakybrum, enjoy the AGM. Typically I am travelling back through London in the Thursday and will miss it by one day.
What I would like to see in the AGM presentation is estimates of EUR/flow rates from the better reservoir in the new leases. It would be good to not focus on the conservative base case estimates from Alkaid. As a reminder on upside just from Alkaid:
'Development studies by SLB indicate an alternative type curve for the Alkaid horizon substantially in excess of Pantheon's base planning case estimates. Utilising this analysis, Pantheon has created a best estimate using an IP30 of 2,700 bpd and EURs of 1.65 million barrels. Improvements seen in the shelf break horizons in Ahpun and the updip portions of Kodiak would see rates and volumes comfortably exceeding these.'
It's quite easy to get to 3-4B based on information released to date
NSAI Kodiak Old Leases - 1B
NSAI Kodiak Old Leases Upside - 1B ( achievable via further appraisal and removal of poro/perm cap based on Theta West.
New Kodiak Leases - >600M based on Pantheon estimate
Ahpun Alkaid - >100M (including conservative estimate for Alkaid Deep on top of LKA estimate for Alkaid)
Aphun Old Leases SMD - >400M management estimate.
Aphun New Leases - >350M
Total - >3.45B
This ignores SFS, Upper BFF and Kuparuk
Please note I did comment on James Simon's post on the 27th Dec & 00:30
'Kever, I will concede that James Simon's apparent threat of violence was uncalled for. However I can understand the frustration of fellow shareholders given the scale of short and distort tactics used by the likes of Stahel, Perry and indeed we can add you to that list now. '
Kever, they don't need to be reminded, they can read all about Pantheon's conservative estimates for self sufficiency in the 21st Nov RNS or the Annual Report. They can also watch the numerous webinars it's been discussed in and why the company believe it may be possible to avoid any dilution.
Anyway I am sure when you hear about the placing from your 'very good source' you will let us all in on the inside information.
Kever, we all seen your post where in your own words you said, 'I heard from a very good source on the planned placing so I bailed'. Sounds like you took action on inside information here, your daughter would be very disappointed.
Pure cunning, that Danno01. The way you very cleverly came across as a genuine investor asking a question, (SPOILER ALERT) to then turn negative and bring out the big guns, no production and jam tomorrow.
Followed by some real research showing the directors sold some options. Of course no mention of the recent ~$500K of share purchased by David Hobbs or support from Michael Spencer.
I can see we are going to have to be at are very best to handle Danno01, said absolutely nobody.
Stoneyloon, there may not be examples of direct vendor financing in the Middle East but the NOC's still look for investment from the service companies indirectly. Aramco like many other NOCs have pushed localisation and the setting up of plants, headquarters, manufacturing etc in country.
To me this is essentially the same thing, service companies allocating upfront capital to win business. In our case it's not asking the service companies to set up infrastructure as it's largely already there (Deadhorse), it's asking them to invest directly in the project.
The size of the prize means the $100M or so is justifiable. There are not many projects which offer the size of contracts Pantheon are offering (perhaps Jafurah globally, with even less in the US).
I would imagine Pantheon can offer more attractive risk/reward or gain share contracts than many of the NOCs can given the supply chain beaurocracy involved with the NOCs. All this on the service companies doorstep in the pro-oil state of Alaska.
It's clear from webinar commentary there is interest there given the conversations are at a mature stage.
As David Hobbs stated in the Kodiak Field Presentation (~49.50) when asked about the percentage of possibility of the oil being commercial.
'Again we are not in the business of offering percentages you can read into certainly my view on the basis of my investment into the company. The advisors we are working with are in no doubt as to the commerciality of it, but nothing is a certainty in this business.'
So these companies believe it's commercial and of course we have seen SLB's modelling as detailed above.
So a host of news to come in the next six months which in my opinion could be bigger than any drill. CPRs n both Ahpun and Kodiak, Ahpun Development plan and hopefully vendor financing.
Posted this elsewhere recently and thought I would share.
Gave the recent webinar another listen and it further supported my initial thoughts that the new leases could be a real game changer. The company has done well recently in demonstrating the base case commercials utilising the conservative type curve gives $350M outflow required to get to self sufficiency. They perhaps have done too good a job as it's worth remembering that their best case (most likely) shows a much quicker route to self sufficiency as detailed in the 21st Nov RNS:
'Company Best Estimate for Development Planning (based on SLB Analysis)
Development studies by SLB indicate an alternative type curve for the Alkaid horizon substantially in excess of Pantheon's base planning case estimates. Utilising this analysis, Pantheon has created a best estimate using an IP30 of 2,700 bpd and EURs of 1.65 million barrels. Improvements seen in the shelf break horizons in Ahpun and the updip portions of Kodiak would see rates and volumes comfortably exceeding these.
Utilising these estimates, and modelling monthly production rates for each well as it is added, the rate of production build up is more rapid with a peak cumulative net cash outflow of $160 million and financial self-sufficiency being achieved before the end of 2026. However, it seems more prudent to plan on the basis of the more conservative type curve.'
However with the addition of the new leases, particularly those east of Ahpun it's worth focussing on the last paragraph. This shows that self sufficiency can come a lot quicker than the $350M rightly promoted. Whilst the new SMD will likely be some of the best reservoir quality in the whole acreage (perhaps with the exception of some of the updip BFF), it's even more likely to be the most profitable given it can be accessed off the Dalton in the disturbed corridor. Therefore assuming we target the best SMD first, and I struggle to see why we wouldn't', then the statement in respect of BEST case type curve that the 'shelf break horizons in Ahpun and the updip portions of Kodiak would see rates and volumes comfortably exceeding these.' becomes important as does the associated $160M to self sufficiency.
Bob mentioned a few times in the presentation the they would present more detail on the new SMD acreage in January, so we can hopefully expect to hear more on this at the AGM if not earlier in a separate webinar.
So the question then becomes how interested will the service companies be in vendor financing. Given the projected $25B development costs Pantheon's service packages will represent some of the biggest oil field services contracts in North America (BH Revenue for 2023 was $24B). Do you think these companies won't want a piece of this given the major players already have supply bases ~25km up the Dakton Highway in Deadhorse and have been developing far worse quality reservoirs over the last 15 plus years in the Lower 48.
Kever, I will concede that James Simon's apparent threat of violence was uncalled for. However I can understand the frustration of fellow shareholders given the scale of short and distort tactics used by the likes of Stahel, Perry and indeed we can add you to that list now.
The good news now is that your bear arguments are now as equally as weak as those posted by others on other boards/sites. You too have been reduced to squealing placing, however you chose to take it a stage further by intimating you heard of a placing from an insider. You are of course entitled to your opinion but you are not entitled to break the law by spreading false rumours.
It's clear Pantheon have made significant progress given the lack of substance in your posts and those of other bearish posters. I indeed take your low quality posts as real vote of confidence. Thanks for that